Montanans tend to be fiercely independent with a strong Libertarian streak. They also tend to like their guns. Both of these things could go a long way in ensuring an Obama victory (albeit with the help of a spoiler or two) in a state that George Bush carried by 21 points in 2004.
Pollster.com currently pegs the race at a 51.2-43.5 McCain lead, but I believe that that only begins to tell the story. Follow me below the fold for an analysis of recent MT polling trends, an explanation of why the current polls do NOT give us the whole picture, and how Montana is SERIOUSLY in play.
First, let me say that it would be much easier for me to believe that Montana was turning blue than North Dakota. Yet, numerous recent polls show ND in a dead heat, so I figured I’d take a closer look at Montana. Since none of the polls before the conventions are still relevant, I decided to look only at polls since then, and the trends contained within.
Notice the trend lines show both candidates dipping slightly. Not anything exciting, right? Well, if you take away the trend lines, you might come to some slightly different conclusions...
It looks like Obama’s starting to swing up in popularity, contrary to the trend lines generated by Pollster.com. Look especially at the four most recent polls:
So, there is already a clear closing of the gap in recent weeks. The most recent ARG poll only has McCain up by 5. But all of these polls are missing something: The inclusion of third party candidates.
"Ha!" you might say, upon the suggestion that a third party candidate might make some difference. Well, look at Ralph Nader in Florida in 2000. Or look at Ross Perot in 1992, when he pulled enough Republican votes to hand... Montana to Bill Clinton.
Even so, none of the third party candidates has as much sway (or money) as Perot did in 1992. But Ross Perot never had a rabid fan base quite like Ron Paul’s. Yes, one minor detail that has been floating around the internet for the past week rather quietly is that Ron Paul is on the ballot in Montana. We’ll come back to him in a minute.
The other candidate that could act as a spoiler is Libertarian candidate Bob Barr. Most people don’t expect him to pull more than a few percentage points anywhere outside of Georgia. But Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer sees it another way:
"Neither of these guys is the favorite of the (National Rifle Association)," Schweitzer said. "If guns are your primary issue, you may not like either of these guys."
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The governor said such voters may turn to Libertarian Bob Barr, "if you are absolutely not going to vote for McCain or Obama on guns."
Given the average Montanan’s opinion on guns, Barr could be receiving quite a few "gun votes" in the state. How do I see this turning out? In my opinion, Barr could grab anywhere from 2-5% of the total vote (more of it coming from potential McCain voters than Obama voters), which could be important in a close race.
Now, back to everyone’s favorite internet phenomenon, Ron Paul. So, just how did Ron Paul end up on the presidential ballot in Montana, even after he effectively ended his campaign? According to mhastings over at Democratic Underground, "The Montana state affiliate of the Constitution Party decided to nominate Ron Paul as their presidential nominee because of a dispute with their national nominee."
Very interesting. So why do I think Paul could pull serious votes from McCain? Ron Paul is a candidate built for a state like Montana. If he were running a serious third party campaign, I wouldn’t be surprised if he could WIN the state outright. Running a bare-bones primary campaign, Paul finished second in the state behind Mitt Romney, and ahead of John McCain. In fact, Paul won 11 counties outright in terms of state delegates, whereas McCain won only 8. I believe that a strong showing in the primary could leave a lot of lingering support for Ron Paul as a presidential candidate, and we’re just lucky enough to actually have him on the ballot. I believe that Paul could pull as much as 10% of the vote in Montana, even without running an active campaign. In a close election, that could be HUGE.
Unfortunately, none of the Montana polls that have come out include either Paul or Barr, so we have no idea how to gauge what effect they might have on the race.
We need a new poll in Montana that accounts for Ron Paul and Bob Barr, as they could very possibly swing the election our way.