Most Democrats refused to speak publicly last year about gaining a filibuster-proof majority. The odds are steadily rising for a November blowout. The Algorithm at FiveThirtyEight currently stakes the chances at 30%. This is 10% higher than a couple of weeks ago. The Washington Post discusses the odds of Democrats picking up as many as 35 House seats in the House of Representatives. Barack Obama could control two branches of the government from 2009-2011.
Let's discuss the ramifications from my blog, Heartless and Brainless, under the fold.
Obama also has a severe advantage if the Democrats only win 58 or 59 seats. He can nominate Republican Senators to his Cabinet. He could select Congressmen from states with a Democratic governor or favorable special elections. This is good politics anyway because Obama could wave the bipartisan banner for maintaining an ideological spectrum in his administration. I would spruce up my resume if I was Olympia Snowe.
This almost ensures that both chambers will suffer losses during the 2010 election. The party opposing the president usually gains seats during the midterm elections, especially lately. The 35 seats the Democrats may pick up looks impressive but it doesn’t compare to the bloodbaths suffered by Ford and Clinton. The Democrats may pick up 65 seats in two elections but they could potentially lose many of these gains.
Many of America’s problems seem too entrenched to fix in two years. This doesn’t even include potential calamities such as natural disasters and water shortages that could further strain government resources. The Republicans will have an advantage they learned about the hard way. It’s much easier to point out the million ways that the President and Congress are wrong than illustrate the correct method to solve problems.
This outcome is desirable, regardless of which party you endorse. The genius of the Founding Fathers was the constant stream of elections of varying term lengths. This constantly forces the parties to adapt. The current Republican party caters to the hyper-rich and hyper-religious factions. This coalition was too cynical and willfully ignorant to survive. I’m not saying that all religious people are ignorant. I’m just saying that you normally wouldn’t see a Wall Street stat cruncher sharing an elevator someone who thinks Jesus rode a dinosaur.
All this is predicated on 2010 acting according to historic precedent. Obama’s faction is the largest in recent Democratic history. The young Obama voters may prove to be loyal. The constant stream of failures from the Bush era may have scared them off the Republican brand for a generation.