... and you will probably not like the question. In a nutshell, in our exuberance, in our expectations, in our belief in Barack Obama as a new future, have we set... has the bar been set too high, so high as to be unreachable?
Personally, I believe Obama to be the best hope on offer for the nation at this time in history, and I support him fully. But I worry, too. He faces so many daunting and seemingly intractable tasks, simply erasing even some of the most egregious missteps and overreaches of the GWB’s administration over the past eight years... all corrective measures in nature... I worry as to how that in itself will limit him and his vision for the nation.
There is the economy and financial system, there is the miniscule fact of war ongoing on two fronts, there is the issue of the legacy of an administration devoted to the theory of the ‘unitary executive’, there is a severely strained military, there is the diminution of civil liberties and the confluence of church and state, there is the fiscal deficit and an ever-increasing national debt, there is... well, I am sure you get the picture.
The fact is, a President Obama will face from the outset a set of challenges never before seen in our collective memory, challenges as great as or even greater than faced by FDR. After all, on taking office, FDR’s central challenge was the economy, but he did not have to immediately deal with war or a host of other problems that are now at our doorstep. I have no doubt that Obama is up to the tasks ahead, but they are monumental, even unprecedented, and they are so interdependent that to sort them and deal with them effectively may well require the skill of a Svengali!
Can Obama do it? Yes, I think so. But herein lies the question of how high the bar we set. Can he do it in four years? Looking at the budget and completely disregarding the national debt, I have to admit that I doubt he can restore things to a snapshot of eight years ago, so I sincerely hope that is not the general expectation. Can he do it in eight years, relative to the economy and the national debt and national defense and our ‘little wars’ and jobs? That, I believe, will be the overriding question. And if he can, or even if he can make significant inroads on those problems and chart a course that ultimately leads out of the desert, it will be a magnificent achievement, in many ways unparalleled by any before him.
Ultimately, all of the challenges that Obama will face are tied to economics. In fact, there is no single question of national well-being and even national security that is not tied to economics. It has been the premise of the GWB administration, and in fact Republican ideology over the last many years, that economics is of little concern, so long as employment levels are acceptable (so as not to foment internal dissention). Have all the wars you want. Have all the tax cuts you want. You can always borrow more. And isn’t that exactly the attitude what has led to the current crises, on an individual level, corporate level, and government level? And now, we find ourselves having to borrow more on the national credit card to shore up corporations (banks, etc.), but strangely, individuals have been left out of the equation, to date.
Many knowledgeable persons, such as Paul Krugman (who I respect immensely) say this is not the time to turn off government intervention and injection of capital into the economic system... that such injections are absolutely necessary to establish stability and restore the flow of credit.
I can’t (and wouldn’t) argue with that. But there are only two ways of doing that; print more money, thus further devaluing the currency, or borrow more money... the only drawback to borrowing being that the lender expects to be repaid!
And that is exactly what has happened to the nation. Individuals and corporations have collectively been borrowing more money, hence the trade deficits. The government has been borrowing more money (the wars financed in the credit card, as well as the annual budget deficit.) Clearly, this is not a tenable state of affairs, that something has to give, that ‘payback’ will ultimately arrive in spite of interim ‘interest payments’. And that is a fast-approaching reality for the nation today... and one that the next administration must begin to address.
We, collectively as individuals and corporations, and as a nation, have long lived beyond our means, financed McMansions and cars and whatever else on borrowed money, much of it ultimately from foreign sources even if the credit card was issued by a local bank. But, the time of reckoning has now come, and there is no avoiding it, only ameliorating it to some degree. And this will be a part of the dilemma facing the new administration. Simply put, as a nation, we can no longer afford a borrowed $10 billion per month for Iraq, nor other billions borrowed for other things, including the shoring up of annual budget deficits.
As far as the next administration goes, it will be faced with a serious question posed by President Eisenhower... guns or butter? The choice of GWB has been guns, and to some degree the Clinton administration before him, and certainly the Reagan administration. The bottom line is that we can no longer afford butter if there is unfettered expenditure for guns. There has to be a balance, and in the face of our past borrowing habits, the balance amount for each is probably going to have to be reduced. Tough choices, particularly in a charged political climate, but it is what it is and there is no use in denying it. (What does one $330 million Raptor pay for or otherwise, one $2 billion B-2, or one new $8 billion Ford class aircraft carrier?)
There will have to be tough choices and trade-offs made if we are not to careen along toward insolvency, as we now are. This is why Obama’s approach of a ‘scalpel’ is nothing more than common sense. (Unfortunately, not the sense embraced by McCain.)
Which brings us again to reality... the US cannot continue to live off a credit card; in fact, for the sake of the long term, it is essential that the national debt be paid down, significantly. The choices are two. Continue on along a course that is ultimately ruinous, or take a radically different course that recognizes the peril of the present and implements meaningful change.
While Obama’s scalpel is a start, it is only that, a start. To right the economic ship of the state, upon which we all and our nation's security ultimately depends, massive reorganization and re-prioritization will be essential. And yes, whether popular or acknowledged (or not), it is likely that increased tax revenues will be essential. In the long run, the economic health of the nation depends upon both.
Will Obama be sufficiently visionary and resolute to set the course? Yes, I think so. What of McCain? Definitely not! Still, I think it imperative not to have unrealistic expectations of Obama, not to set the bar impossibly high. He will make progress, but with the depth of the hole we are in, it will take time and patience. And after all, what is the alternative?