I've written about this before, a couple of times actually. But this site has probably gained about eighty thousand users since then, because the site is up to about the one-hundred eighty thousand user range now, isn't it? I've been a while in any case and would like to restate my case for Arkansas as eloquently as I can make it. Not for this Presidential election, but to squash attacks on the state as right wing.
First, compare the state to the other states of the South. Arkansas is the only state of the 11 to give Democrats a higher average performance than Republicans over the apst five elections. Arkansas was the last state to vote Republican, but that wouldn't even be divluging into the largly unknown but most important factor about Arkansas politics; Democrats have the future.
I guess you could say the most important thing, the greatest measure of a party is its bench, because what is a party without a future? That's what describe many southern states, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, what little those parties have left ot their pathetic benches are older, long-time politicians and every year it can be seen in the election results. Every year those states lose ground in the legislature, and in statewide offices.
Take a look at Arkansas on the other hand. Over the past twelve years Democrats, despite the nation's strictest term limits which have destroyed Democrats in other states like Louisiana and Oklahoma, Democrats have gained a singular senate, to have a 27-8 lead, while in the State House they have gained eight seats to have a eyepopping 75-25 lead. Just last year Democrats picked up six house seats in a year they were supposed to lose them. Several young Democrats won shocking upsets to get in. Arkansas has one of the most Democratic state legislatures in the country, right behind Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island, states more generally associtiated with Democrats. What about this year's elections in the legislature? Democrats are playing some defense, especially in the House which has a ridiculous three term limit. There are several open seats that Democrats are in the fights of their lives to keep. But in the State Senate they are gearing up a very strong effort to beat Gilbert Baker, the former Chairman of the State Republican party. Gov. Mike Beebe just held a 20,000 dollar fundraiser for his opponent and this one looks to go down the wire.
Democrats however are also licking their chops at challenges to Republican State Rep Mark Martin, and Rep. Jim Medley's open seat in increasingly Democrat friendly Sebastion county, (Fort Smith area). In the end it looks like things may cancel themselves out again, which is the amazing for Arkansas Democrats, a southern state, espeically considering how much more ground they have to defend in the first place. It shows their strength. In other states Democrats just haven't been able to hold on to these seats, but Arkansas has. I've heard many theories. The best one would probably be a combination of several. When most of the other states went Republican in the 90s Clinton kept Arkansas firmly at bay, therefore depriving the Republicans at their best opportunity for long term political gains. But that by itself doesn't work, it doesn't explain Louisiana and Tennessee. The secondary reason, working along with the primary one, may be that Democrats still hold most of the County Judge seats and County Sheriffs. What I've rea is that people underestimate the sheer number of votes these local community figures can pull up for you when you need them.
So, to put it simply, the legislature is ours, in it is our next generation of politicians. And just look at the relative youth of our politicians. Sen. Blanche Lincoln is 48, Sen. Mark Pryor, who is unopposed this year, (yes, a Democrat in a southern state running completely unopposed, not even some nobody extremist to hold the party's place on the ticket), is 45, U.S. Rep. Mike Ross, (who was the only Democrat outside of California to unseat an incumbent Republican Congressman in 2000), is only 47 despite already having a political career that dates back eighteen years, Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter is 48, and Dustin McDaniel is, at 36, the youngest Attorney General in the country. Democrats, in fact, hold every single statewide office, (except perhaps for one or two seats on the Surpreme Court). There are other young Democrats, Paul Suskie who hails from the more Republican areas of North Little Rock and some of Pulaski counties outer suburbs. He's in his thirties, an Iraq War veteran, (I think he's serving a tour right now), and has a bright future. A former North Little Rock City attorney, he just barely lost the primary, (by about 3000 votes), to Rep., at the time, Dustin McDaniel. There's also former State rep. Mike Hathorn, been out of elected office about six years, but he was one of the youngest people ever to serve in the State House. He ran a good race against Mike Boozman in the 2001 special election, and just barely came up short of a runoff appearance in the 2006 Democratic Lieutenant Governor's primary.
So to put it another way, unlike other states Arkansas is no short demand of fresh blood, we have a plethora of talented young politicians ready to fill in the shoes of some of the old guard who are currently holding statewide offices for us.
But lets look at other gains Arkansas made in the past twelve years. First and foremost we retook both the Gubernatorialship and the Lieutenant Governorship in 2006 to reaffirm our lock on statewide offices. No Dem won with less than 55% which is also saying something. In 2000, as I said earlier, Mike Ross, a talented three term State Senator from El Dorado and Texarkanna if I'm not mistaken, beat four term incumbent Jay Dickey, largely because Dickey made the mistake to vote to impeach Clinton while representing the district he was born in. Mike Ross truly showed what a real incumbent is as he soldified his hold on the seat, defeating the former incumbent 62+ percent of the vote in a 2002 rematch, and then ran unopposed in 2004, while taking 75% against a token candidate in 2006. 3 out of Arkansas' four Representatives are Democrats, and all have been elected in the last twelve years or less. None of the three are in the top ranks of conservatives, though all are blue dogs, middle of the pack blue dogs, but blue dogs nonetheless.
After losing that US House seat Republicans responded in 2002 with another distinction; being the only state that year to toss out an incumbent Republican Senator as then Attorney General Pryor dispatched Tim Hutchinson by a 54-45 margin to win his father's old seat, (his father, former Governor David Pryor, retired after three terms in 1996), despite the major Republican coattails of that year. In 2006 Beebe then dispatched a very serious and strong Republican, Asa Hutchinson, by a 55-43 margin. Not many nailbiters there, especially when you consider Lincoln won her open seat in 1998 by something to the tune of 55-40 as well, and took a 56-44 victory in 2004, a hard year for Democrats with the Gay Marriage ban on the ballot.
So Arkansas may not be the strongest state for Obama right now, but that's just because he isn't quite tailored the right for a successful Arkansas Democrat. He lacks Bill Clinton's affable down home manner, and he is very exotic, having grown up in Indonesia and Hawaii, that makes it a lot harder for him in the rural small town counties that Democrats normally win in statewide races. However despite all this, don't get depressed, or upset, he should at least match Kerry at 45, maybe inch up to 46,%, enough to not hurt state Democrats which is all they need. The state party continues to grow stronger every year. It's revamped its infrastructure, and continues to dominate the mediocre AR-GOP in fundraising, candidates, and organization. Arkansas may stick out among the other southern states for a long time to come.