I'm hoping that Georgia turns blue on election night, but here's some evidence to support my insane dream.
I've been peeking every morning at the early voting tallies for Georgia, and the constant high percentage of African-American voters (35%) gets me thinking that the presidential race is actually quite close. Fortunately, the Research 2000 crosstabs from 9/29-10/1 and 10/14-15 are available to confirm my wild speculation.
By my calculations, if the actual electorate is similar in demographics to the early vote (and that's a big IF), the result from the earlier polls is a tied race:
Obama (D) 46 (46)
McCain (R) 46 (46)
There's more . . .
First of all, the raw data:
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/29-10/1 results)
McCain (R) 49 (50)
Obama (D) 43 (43)
These numbers are based on an electorate composed of:
White 66%
Black 27%
Hispanic 5%
Other 2%
Note that African-American voters made up 25% of the electorate in Georgia in Nov 2004, according to the Georgia Secretary of State website. The Research 2000 survey is therefore realistically optimistic.
My new analysis is based on the most recent early vote statistics(10/29):
White 60.6%
Black 35.2%
Other/Unk 2.4%
The power of math gives you
McCain (R) 46 (46)
Obama (D) 46 (46)
Obviously, a 46-46 split means that the undecided voters will, well, decide the election. Fortunately, the largest undecided group in the Research 2000 survey were Hispanic and Other voters, whose "decided" counterparts trend Obama by a 66%-9% margin. I don't know if that means these undecided voters will similarly split, but it's at least encouraging.
A similar analysis of the GA-Sen race produces the even more exciting numbers:
Martin (D) 47 (47)
Chambliss (R) 41 (41)
On a more realistic note, voter preferences have probably swayed back and forth since the last Research 2000 surveys, and predicting voting patterns by race is a bit suspect. However, this analysis suggests that even if African-American turnout remains astronomical, the Georgia presidential race will be decided by the whims of the undecided voters.