McCain has had a problem all year with the "enthusiasm gap," but it is really well illustrated in a report from Florida on Obama's rally there yesterday.
Also, is Louisiana the next toss-up? A new poll shows the race essentially tied.
And, there is a flurry of bad news for Palin today: 59% think she is unqualified to be VP, the NY Times pans her energy speech and one of McCain's top advisors laughs out loud at the possibility of Palin "stepping in" during a crisis.
Here's a prime example of the enthusiasm gap in Sarasota, Florida:
Sarasota has been turning more and more Democratic lately, and Obama drew about four times as many people as Sen. John McCain did in the same community a week earlier.
And this is not a Democratic part of town - the St. Petersburg Times reports Sarasota County hasn't voted for a Democratic candidate since FDR. The whole enthusiasm thing must be painful for Mccain - especially when it was reported yesterday that at his rally in Ohio, 4,000 - of the 6,000 in attendance - were school children bused in to beef up the crowd.
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A new poll in Louisiana, conducted by Loyola University, shows McCain only leading by 3 points:
It shows the race is a dead heat in Louisiana, with 43% of voters saying they'll vote for McCain and 40% supporting Obama. With our poll's margin of error of plus or minus four-point-five percent, the results show a statistical dead heat.
The poll also shows Senator Landrieu with a comfortable lead of 49% to 34%. Wasn't this race considered one of the only chances for a Republican pick-up in the Senate?
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Politico reports this morning that the race is close in North Carolina and Missouri, but that Obama has a lead in several key counties:
Voters in North Carolina’s Wake County, however, part of the politically competitive Research Triangle area, chose Obama by a solid 53 percent to 39 percent margin. That represented a considerable improvement over Obama’s showing in Politico’s first survey of Wake, taken October 9, when he led McCain by a margin of 50 percent to 44 percent.
In Missouri’s St. Louis County, which includes the St. Louis suburbs but not the city itself, Obama racked up an imposing 17-point lead – similar to his wide lead in politically competitive Wake County. The Illinois senator took 55 percent of the vote in St. Louis County, compared with 38 percent for McCain.
Politico has Obama and McCain tied at 48% in North Carolina and has McCain leading 50% to 47% in Missouri. This is the second poll in two days that I have questions about because of the African-American internals. Politico only has Obama winning 65% of the African-American vote in Missouri. Does that seem ridiculously low to anyone else?
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The Reuters/Zogby tracker remains at Obama +7 today:
Obama led in every age group and among every income group except voters who make more than $100,000. McCain, a former Navy fighter pilot and Vietnam prisoner of war, trails among voters with a member of the military in their family.
Mccain, an Arizona senator, also was winning only 26 percent of Hispanics, a fast-growing group that gave Republican President George W. Bush more than 40 percent of their vote in 2004.
Hooray for military families for Obama!
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Lawrence Eagleburger, Republican and one of McCain's top advisors, makes some pretty frank admissions about Palin. When asked whether Palin could step in during a crisis:
"It is a very good question," he said, pausing a few seconds, then adding with a chuckle: "I'm being facetious here. Look, of course not."
Eagleburger explained: "I don't think at the moment she is prepared to take over the reigns of the presidency. I can name for you any number of other vice presidents who were not particularly up to it either. So the question, I think, is can she learn and would she be tough enough under the circumstances if she were asked to become president, heaven forbid that that ever takes place?
"Give her some time in the office and I think the answer would be, she will be [pause] adequate. I can't say that she would be a genius in the job. But I think she would be enough to get us through a four year... well I hope not... get us through whatever period of time was necessary. And I devoutly hope that it would never be tested."
Bwahahahahaha!
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Headline of the morning - Fact Check: Palin's Alaska Spreads its Wealth:
Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin summon antidemocratic images of a communist state to attack Democrat Barack Obama's tax plan and his comment about spreading the wealth around. But in her home state, Palin embraces Alaska's own version of doing just that.
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The news gets worse for Palin this morning. Each passing day shows her as a bigger and bigger drag on the Republican ticket, as the New York Times reports:
All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee.
and:
The increase in the number of voters who said Ms. Palin was not prepared was driven almost entirely by Republicans and independents.
59%!! I'm starting to think that Americans are finally starting to get it. It's remarkable that this number has increased 9 points in only a few weeks... and this is the person Republicans want to lead their party into 2012? Eugene Robinson (love him!) thinks Democrats shouldn't underestimate her and will be seeing her for a long time, but really? I think it is so hard to overcome those first impressions...
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And if that weren't enough, The New York Times Editorial board says Palin's energy speech was "same old, same old":
Ms. Palin mentioned greenhouse gas emissions exactly once, meanwhile giving short shrift to the necessary development of new technologies and alternative fuels that could make a real difference.
It is not surprising, of course, that the global warming consequences of relying ever more heavily on fossil fuels like oil and coal do not loom large in Ms. Palin’s thinking. She has repeatedly expressed doubts that humans and their industrial activities have done anything to cause climate change. There was no indication in the speech that she has changed her mind.
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The Economist endorses Barack Obama:
The Economist does not have a vote, but if it did, it would cast it for Mr Obama. We do so wholeheartedly: the Democratic candidate has clearly shown that he offers the better chance of restoring America’s self-confidence.
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It looks like it is really going to come down to the wire for Proposition 8. A new Field poll finds that opponents are just barely edging out supporters:
A new Field Poll shows Proposition 8, one of the most closely watched state ballot measures in years, is supported by 44 percent of likely voters. Forty-nine percent oppose it, and 7 percent are undecided.
In the last Field Poll, released Sept. 18, the measure was behind by 17 points.
Come on California, don't let us down!
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The Washington Post thinks the debates were a defining moment in this race:
There is now a lot of evidence from polls and focus groups suggesting that Sen. Obama has significantly improved his standing with a great many Americans since the first debate on Sept. 26, exactly five weeks ago. Americans find Obama more empathetic, stronger, better prepared to be president and just more sympathetic a figure than they did before the debates.
and:
"This cake looks baked," says Charlie Cook of the 2008 election. The normally cautious proprietor of the Cook Political Report, famous for its cogent and careful election analysis, is certain of the outcome: a Democratic landslide. He has lots of company among his peers.
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You wanna know what's on my mind this morning? Yesterday, John McCain called Joe the Plumber an "American hero" and "my role model." WTF? What has this guy done to qualify him as a hero OR a role model? It's outrageous and to me, a little bit insulting. But enough about me - what's on your mind?