Look, I want Obama to win this thing as much as anyone, but why the hell did Kos allow Research 2000 to do a poll that had these unrealistic and unprecedented partisan numbers:
Democrats 385 (35%)
Republicans 287 (26%)
Independents 329 (30%)
In the past 24 years, 6 presidential elections, we have never, I MEAN NEVER, had an election where we have outnumbered the GOP by more than 4%. But, you're telling me we're gonna have a 9% advantage??? WTF? Also, in this 24 year time period, there hasn't been an election where Independents have outnumbered Republicans. To suggest that this will happen this time totally calls into question the credibility of the person making such a claim. Take a look at history.
- 38 Dem, 35 GOP, 26 Ind
- 38 Dem, 35 GOP, 27 Ind
- 38 Dem, 35 GOP, 27 Ind
- 39 Dem, 35 GOP, 26 Ind
- 39 Dem, 35 GOP, 26 Ind
- 37 Dem, 37 GOP, 26 Ind
I mean, why the hell do we do a poll at all if we are just doing one to make ourselves feel better? I guess we can see demographic trends, but that's it. When the exit polls come back and we see that there was no chance in hell that the vaunted GOP turnout machine was going to have a partisan drop from 37% in 2004 to 26% in 2008 (ridiculous!), what will we say then? Why are we kidding ourselves? The size of Obama's lead in this poll means absolutely nothing, COMPLETELY NOTHING.
Kos, please tell Research 2000 to model its prediction based on the average partisan turnout of 1988-2004 (38%D, 35%R, 26%I). Otherwise we (and they) will retain no polling credibility after election day. Mark my words. We, the new leaders of the Democratic Party, can and should do better.