(cross-posted at benquixote.blogspot.com)
My enthusiasm for President-elect Obama is tempered by heartbreaking news in California about marriage equality. With 91% of precincts reporting, Yes on Prop 8 has 3-point lead in election results. It doesn't look good. This is a major blow to GLBT rights in the United States, at least the biggest blow since the repeal of the Miami-Dade County human rights ordinance in the 1970s. But maybe it will be the kick in the seat of the pants that the GLBT community needs to get truly mobilized again.
A few predictions that I'm willing to make right now:
- Expect to see a protracted legal battle about what to do with the 11,000 same-sex couples already married.
- California voters will live to regret such a vote. The loss of gay tourism dollars and a gay "brain drain" to more enlightened New England states will have subtle but distinct social consequences for the state. However, the constitutional amendment will be difficult to undo. There will have to be some impetus to mobilize progressives to the polls en masse to approve another referendum repealing the amendment. If history is any guide, we'll have a better chance of accomplishing this in 2012 than in 2010. And it will be uphill slog through the mud.
- Gay marriage in Massachusetts and Connecticut will still be safe. It's harder to get referenda on the ballot in these states than it is in California, and even if they do appear, GLBT activists will be able to use California as a rallying cry.
- Expect inflamed tensions between the GLBT community and the LDS and Catholic Churches. As a friend and I discussed earlier on Tuesday, there's already some strongly anti-Mormon rhetoric starting to emerge out of this issue. Those of us who study social movements academically know that confrontation can be good for advancing the long-term goals of the movement, but it's still ulcer-inducing in the short run.
On a more personal note, I'm disappointed with this outcome. Deeply disappointed. I don't think I'll be able to bring myself to step foot in a Catholic Church this Christmas (sorry, Mom). But I will not stop fighting the good fight until I have the same rights as any other citizen. Gay and lesbian people will not fade away. We still exist in California, in Arkansas (which passed another horrible antigay initiative tonight), and every other state in the union. Bigots can deny us rights, but they can't deny our right to exist or the fact that we're still their neighbors or family members.
Take heart, GLBT people in what I have written above. We may have lost this battle, but the war is not over. Not by a long shot. We shall overcome. And for those of you who are allies, PLEASE tell your GLBT friends and family that you love them and support them. We don't hear that enough.