Following my 50-state diary series prior to the elections, I'm back with a look at where we stand in the solid blue, light blue, purple, light red and solid red states, where to allocate the bulk of our time and energy in seeking to expand our blue majority, and what lies ahead.
Starting with the bluest states and working toward the reddest, and based on the principle that we need to compete everywhere, but that some states are more equal than others.
First up is a look at the 20 bluest states in the union: Ten in the solid northeast, six in the west, four in the midwest, none in the regionally Republican South.
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Iowa
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin.
What these states have in common is total, or almost total Democratic control over all levels of state and federal government.
Nineteen of the twenty states have Democratic majorities in both houses of the state legislature, although Michigan still has a narrow GOP majority in the State Senate.
Only West Virginia did not vote for Obama for President.
Delaware is the only state without a Dem majority in its US House delegation.
Iowa and New Hampshire have one Republican Senator each, while the others all have two Democrats or Indies caucusing with Democrats.
Fifteen states have Dem Governors. The exceptions are Hawaii, Rhode Island, Vermont, California and Connecticut. And of those, the first three have legislative supermajorities that can override any veto, and all five GOP Governors needed at least the pretense of being moderate, mavericky independents who buck the national GOP in order to get their foot in the door.
And ten states—MA, NY, NJ, MD, IL, WI, NM, CO, OR and WA—have no significant Republican stronghold at all. They have Dem Governors, two Dem Senators, Dem legislatures, Dem-majority House delegations, and voted Obama for President.
Some of those states achieved their deepest of deep blue status only in this past election, after long periods of GOP significance, such as New York’s State Senate, New Mexico’s House Delegation, Oregon’s US Senators and Colorado’s blue EVs for President. However, those victories were arguably the cementing of solid blue status. They were not flukes, as shown by all of those states’ solid blue performances elsewhere.
And so, these states, which are 2/5 of the total number of states, deserve an allocation of 1/5 of the party’s resources. Enough to shore up what we have, make what inroads are still to be made, reward the party faithful, and avoid the appearance of taking anybody for granted....but leaving enough resources to fight the good fight, and fight it hard, in those Missouris, Floridas and Arizonas where we still have solid Republican parties to conquer at the state level.
What to do in the short term with what we allocate? The sore thumbs I mentioned above are a good start. The Michigan State Senate deserves a full court press in 2010, when the entire Senate is up. If we take it and hold onto the Governor’s mansion, we will be able to undo the Republican gerrymander in that state and gain more seats at the state and Federal level, one cycle later.
Senators Gregg and Grassly need to have big, big bullseyes on them for the next two years. Gregg is already considered vulnerable; Grassly less so. Both should be made aware that they face the fights of their lives in 2010. First prize is we take their seats. Second prize is they know that they need "moderate" cred to earn new terms, and therefore they break filibusters on Obama’s popular legislative proposals. Remember—assuming Franken’s numbers hold, they will need EVERY SINGLE SENATOR, EVERY TIME, to stop the Democrats. And eighteen of them will have to face the voters in two years. Target as many of the eighteen as possible, and at least one will crack on the important stuff. These two blue-state Senators are on the very top of the list.
The Governors of California, Hawaii, and Rhode Island are overwhelmingly likely to step down, and we are the favorites to take those seats, further increasing our majority of Governors. California, the most populous state, is a huge target.
Then we have openings to defend. Illinois, Wisconsin and New Mexico will have Governor contests, for example. Inouye in Hawaii and Dodd in Connecticut might retire. It's hard to think of states in this category where we would not start out as overwhelming favorites to hold seats, but be prepared nonetheless.
West Virginia is odd. Some would argue that it shouldn’t be on the bluest-states list, and yet, other than Presidential elections, it has one of the most solidly dominant Democratic parties of the 50 states. The legislature is not just solid Dem, but a three-quarters majority in both houses. No other state has that. Plus, Democrats control each and every executive office. And even at the Presidential level, it voted blue in half of the last six elections, and the signs are that its failure to do so this year was due to a specific Appalachian hostility to Obama in particular, rather than hatred for all Democrats—and even that Obama could have won the state had he tried harder. Some polls at the eleventh hour showed Obama with potential, but the national response was too little too late. So yes, invest resources in the Democratic brand name in West Virginia. There’s a state and local army to help do it.
And let the Federal government reward the blue states for their support. Nurture our deep benches. Bring home pork to the home folks. Show them that when they support the winning team, there’s something in it for them.
Together those 20 states, plus DC, make up 243 electoral votes, just 17 less than the number needed to win a national election. Wouldn’t it be nice to start out every cycle with that much in the bank as our base? Knowing that Pennsylvania alone, or Ohio alone would give us a total lock, or some combination of MN, ME, NV and VA?
That is our goal. To practice on our "base" states the way a champion basketball player practices shooting 70 consecutive free throws. So that, in the only poll that counts, that base comes across naturally, as our due.
Next edition: Eight "light blue" states, and what to do to make them solid blue.