Al Franken's campaign announced yesterday that once all the challenged ballots have been counted, Al Franken will maintain a lead of 35 to 50 votes, which should be enough to insure him the final victory in the recount of Minnesota's US Senate race.
[Franken lawyer Marc] Elias said that come Tuesday, when the State Canvassing Board accepts the results of the 5,000 or so previously withdrawn challenged ballots by both sides and incorporates them into the recount total, Elias has no doubt that, "Al Franken will have more votes than Norm Coleman ... We believe firmly that margin will be between 35 and 50 ... At some point not long after that, Al Franken will stand before you as the senator-elect from Minnesota."
Although this has been diaried before, by the inimitable WineRev, he buried the lede so badly that I thought it was important enough to deserve its own diary. (Sorry, rev, but them's the facts.)
On Tuesday, the withdrawn challenges will be returned to the precincts for inclusion into their totals.
"Our internal count has no uncertainty as to what will happen on Tuesday," Elias said. "We have already allocated those votes" based on how they were called at the table, he said.
After the challenged ballots have been returned to their original piles and counted -- leaving Franken with the small margin Marc Elias quoted above -- there would still be two items left before the recount can be certified:
- Improperly rejected absentee ballots. Number: about 1600. Favors: Franken.
- "Blue Folder" ballots that both sides have procedural questions about. These include duplicate ballots that cannot be matched with their originals. Number: about 400. Favors: neither, says Nate Silver, for clear reasons.
So -- except for the widely expected Coleman court challenges on everything but the kitchen sink -- Al Franken will be our next Senator. Those Coleman lawsuits might be expected to run into three categories.
- The 133 missing ballots from Dinkytown. Coleman would argue that the State Canvassing Board erred when it decided to use the election night machine tape in the recount. That decision netted Franken 46 votes, which might well be enough to turn the election.
- Coleman might argue the rejected absentees, either individually in some cases, or as a group.
- And, as mentioned above, it already looks like the blue folder ballots are headed to court, as the State Canvassing Board has already ruled that it doesn't have jurisdiction to decide them.
But the good news is that probably none of the lawsuit challenges can or will prevent the SCB from certifying the results of the recount, which will show a small lead for Al Franken. Thus Coleman will be arguing from the sore-loser position.