Do we live in interesting times or what!!
I had just finished writing a piece discussing a potential three way US Senate Democratic primary between Allen Boyd, Dan Gelber, and Kendrick Meek based on an analysis of the results of the 2008 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary when I happened to click on Sayfiew Review (I go to the Democratic equivalent Fort Report next) and the World Shifted!
Boyd was out! (Must have been that Grandpa from Hee Haw piece of mine.) McCollum was out! (He realized if Jeb couldn’t do it, then he couldn’t either). And, to me, the most absolutely startling was that Iorio was half way in!!!! Oh my God!
Let me blow away all of the stupid bloviating by cluesless pundits like William March. (Note to Newspapers: You can’t attract young readers with retread "Old White Guys" doing your analysis. Take a lesson from Jeb Bush on how to reform the Republican Party-a hopeless task at this point.)
Forget the General Election. The Republicans are toast. There’s no way in Hell they can win this seat. Baby, it’s ours! The only Republican stupid enough to think he has a chance is Boy Toy Marco Rubio. Puh-leez! Let’s face it, people. He has minor league written all over him.
A No-Runoff Democratic Primary will determine the next US Senator from Florida. Think about that! ONLY motivated registered Democratic voters will be deciding the winner! This means that all the nonsense of having to appeal to independent and moderate swing voters is OUT THE WINDOW. And there’s NO run-off. The more candidates that enter, the more the candidate with a determined, dedicated grass roots effort that has been established early and who can continually raise money on the Internet will be favored. (That’s Rep. Meek by the way.) If you aren’t in by the next few weeks you can kiss your hopes goodbye.
It is constituencies, NOT geography that matters. Since I have been advocating for Rep. Meek against Dan Gelber some people assume I hate the guy or something. I don’t. I respect him a great deal. I just feel (Teaser Alert!!) he has a MUCH MORE IMPORTANT role to play in 2010 than running for the US Senate (more later). But in William March’s ridiculous piece on Iorio’s possible entry, at the VERY bottom of the piece, he quotes Dan Gelber who says the only intelligent thing in the whole stinking article:
Gelber disputed the idea that two South Florida candidates would make the path easier for a Tampa Bay area candidate.
"People overestimate geography in these races," he said. "There will be people who vote for the person they know, but most of us aren't known that well and don't have a statewide identity like a Gov. Crist or Sen. [Bob] Graham.
"Pretty much everybody's at the same starting line," he said.
Well said, Dan. (Except I don’t quite agree with that last sentence, as I’ve documented extensively in past posts. As Freud said, "Our intelligence is bounded by our emotions." Or ego, to be more specific, in this case.)
This is what I was trying to get at with my ill-fated analysis of a three-way race mentioned above. Let me try to rip it apart and re-sew together in a quick Frankenstein’s Monster way to apply to these changing events.
Here’s part of the lead-in. The post was written in response to the infuriating conventional wisdom responses responses to the Quinnipiac poll on the Florida US Senate race published earlier in the month:
One of the wonderful things that has come out of the 2008 election season is the metamorphosis of Daily Kos’ Poblano into Nate Silver of the polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.com. For all of us who followed, and reveled in, this transition we now understand that naively presented poll results are no longer acceptable. In fact, it is gross incompetence on the part of the Traditional Media to do so.
The main distinction of this Quinnipiac poll is that IT IS TWO YEARS OUT FROM THE ELECTION!!!!
I remember that right before Christmas, 2007, my wife and I were visiting some friends. Being male, and full of myself, I confused the wealth of minutiae concerning the coming presidential election gained from my obsessive-compulsive on-line involvement with actual wisdom concerning the political process. Sort of like a political journalist does.
I smugly sat there and bet any taker $100 that the nominees would be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. Luckily, it was a gathering of non-gamblers.
As Nate Silver has patiently explained, over and over, polls this far out ARE MEANINGLESS.
After beating up on some of the pundits I got into the heart of the matter:
This seems to be a common theme. Meek can’t win if there are too many people in the race. I wondered if there was a way to test this idea (I’m trying to think like Nate here). What information do we have to work with?
Well, actually, we have the results of the Democrat Preference Primary vote that occurred in January of 2008. Now, I don’t want to rehash all the idiocy that went on over this issue and I understand that it is possible to find all kinds of reasons why this may not be representative, blah, blah, blah. But, the fact remains, it would probably be information that would shed light on how a three or four way race might play out.
The guiding distinction of a primary is that it has lower turnout from the general. This statewide vote matches that requirement for comparison. Anything from the general election would not. Also, it should be noted, this vote was taken WAY before the remarkable Obama ground game moved into the state and started taking names and kicking butt. So, if anything, it is a bottom line indicator of rock solid support for a certain type of Black candidate statewide.
The results for this election are available from the State of Florida Division of Elections website. They are conveniently broken out by congressional district. In Florida, there are presently 25 of these. If I post a pic of them in this diary they will be hard to see. So, I am going to provide links to websites which you can open in a new window and consult as we go over the results. There is an html version, which has outdated congressional names on it and a pdf version which just shows the districts.(Right click on these then select "open in new tab").
[snip]
Now, the Preference Primary had eight candidates, some of whom had already withdrawn from the race. These were Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson. The minor candidates only pulled 2.92% of the vote.
To convert this info into a three-way senate race I needed to simplify this mess. I did this by combining the Biden-Clinton vote into a category still labeled "Clinton". I added the Kucinich vote to Edwards’ and the rest I stuck into a category labeled "Obama".
I had to do some additional wriggling to massage this into a meaningful set of data to apply to a Boyd-Gelber-Meek race. But, here’s the completely mind-blowing situation we are now in. An Iorio-Meek-Gelber race generates the same dynamics as the Clinton-Obama-Edwards primary did!
Is that just absolutely flipping COOL or what!
Now, in saying that, I’m not projecting Iorio the winner. That’s because if this race goes forward with this trio we will play out the NATIONAL scenario of Clinton vs. Obama right here in Florida! Meek will be the eventual winner. The logic is inescapable.
Let me explain how this would happen.
Why is Gelber the Edwards stand-in? Look at this puff piece written by a green, but up-and-coming, diarist on Daily Kos. Watch the videos of Dan talking, and talking, and talking. It’s all about how GOOD he is. How he has helped Black people (I’m almost tempted to say Negroes). How he has helped Working People. How he is going to have a series of Service Days because he just CARES sooo much. Take a look at this bit of hagiography on Huffpost.
Criminee! It put me in mind of the old Phil Ochs song, Love Me, I’m a Liberal.
I mean, no matter what he claims, just like Edwards, IT’S ALL ABOUT HIM! (I wonder how much Gelber spends on haircuts).
Eventually this crap (he’s just old paradigm politics stuffed in a new paradigm wrapper) is going to catch up with him and he’ll drop out. Same as Edwards. (But then he will be able to follow his true calling to greatness, more on that later.)
How about Iorio?
Like Hillary Clinton, while she might feel a tug for grabbing the golden ring of greatness people seem to be ascribing to this US Senate seat, she’s not really cut out for the job. Let me go back and make a few amends to Bill March and acknowledge his solid reporting in regards to Iorio’s pros and cons. (People need to remember that I’m writing for rhetorical effect, and many of the seemingly harsh things I say don’t actually reflect my deeply held compassion for all of us.)
Here’s some clips from his piece:
Iorio can count on some advantages in that task, including a reputation for nonpartisan executive experience.
But some of her advantages will also be disadvantages.
A nonpartisan, apolitical reputation could help her in a general election, for example. But it also means she has little history with influential party activists.
Her base in the Tampa Bay area, the state's largest media market and political fulcrum, could help in a general election – but maybe not in a Democratic primary, where most of the money and votes would come from South Florida.
[snip]
The key issue for Iorio, MacManus said, "is whether she can raise the money" in a state where a statewide campaign can cost $30 million.
[snip]
Iorio would also be "the dominant political figure in the race in the Interstate 4 corridor area," said Bob Buckhorn, a veteran Democratic activist and former Tampa City Council member who ran against Iorio in the 2003 mayor's race.
"She also has a record of having run something" – city hall and the elections office. "That makes her a top-tier candidate out of the box," he said.
Buckhorn said Iorio's "apolitical" reputation will appeal to moderates and independents in a general election. The mayor's office is nonpartisan, and as elections supervisor, she had to work with all parties equally.
But, he added, "Without a statewide fundraising machine and contacts, you start out behind the candidates who have been toiling in the party vineyards for years."
[snip]
Iorio, meanwhile, has avoided intense involvement in party politics. She endorsed Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary, for example, but wasn't heavily involved in his campaign or others.
"The best posture in a nonpartisan office is to operate in as nonpartisan a way as possible," she said in 2004 when asked why she wasn't involved in the Kerry campaign.
As you can see, her experience is as an EXECUTIVE not as a legislator, like Gelber and Meek. She hasn’t been involved in party politics, which is pretty much going to doom her in a Democratic Party primary.
Does that mean I think she should stay home and bake cookies? HELL NO! Let’s go WAAAY back to my original piece of Fantasy Politics that I posted on Daily Kos right at the end of 2008. This was before I got on Facebook, had my head explode, and discovered MY true calling.
What I’m referring to is my rescued magnum opus Rebranding the FL Dem Party in 2010. In it I highlighted a full slate of Democratic candidates for all statewide offices on the ballot. Let me recap four of those quickly:
US Senate – Kendrick Meek
Chief Financial Officer – Alex Sink
Attorney General – Dave Aronberg
Agricultural Commissioner – Joe Garcia
And then there was my pick for Governor:
Governor
Pam Iorio
Pam Iorio (born April 27, 1959 in Waterville , Maine ) is the 57th and current (as of 2008) mayor of Tampa , Florida . She moved with her family to Temple Terrace as an infant and also attended school in Temple Terrace . She is the second female mayor of Tampa.
Her first term dealt largely with renovating the downtown area, as well as creating economic confidence for poorer citizens of the city. Iorio is also a big supporter of the arts, and she wishes to make Tampa a major arts center in the South. Iorio has also been credited with a sharp drop in drug trafficking in the city limits. In her second term, Iorio will continue to be a supporter for a light rail mass transit system for the city.
In 1985, at the age of 26, she became the youngest person ever elected to the Hillsborough County Commission. For a decade before her successful run for mayor, she served as Supervisor of Elections for Hillsborough County . During the 2000 presidential election recount, she was the president of the State Association of County Elections Supervisors.
One of the points I was trying to make in this piece is that THIS IS WHAT A SLATE OF DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES SHOULD LOOK LIKE. An African-American, two women, an Hispanic and a white guy described as "young". I pointed out that such a slate would mock Jeb Bush’s (who was the presumptive Republican candidate at the time) acknowledgment that the Republican Party could not survive as "the Old White Guy" party.
At the time, it looked like their line-up would be all "Old White Guys". I can GUARANTEE you that some Republican operative is reading this and scurrying around trying to dig up a woman to run for Ag Commissioner.
But, let’s get back to Pam Iorio. I want to strongly suggest that instead of running for the US Senate she seriously thinks about running against Charlie Christ for Governor. Everyone thinks Christ is invulnerable because of his high ratings. I have pointed out in the past that the reason he has such high ratings is that he operates out of a New Paradigm approach.
He’s positive and upbeat. He talks about serving The People. He’s truly post-partisan as shown by his appointments AND actions, like restoring felon rights.
But, he has some fatal flaws. He’s stuck with the Republican Party, which is quickly becoming an albatross. And, more importantly, HE’S NOT A TRANSFORMATIONAL LEADER.
At his core, he’s not authentic. Right now, everything is slowly collapsing around him. I don’t know about you, but State Farm holds my home owner’s insurance. I just got the "Thanks, but NO thanks" letter.
At some point CRIST IS GOING TO BE BLAMED FOR THE IMMINENT FIASCO THAT IS GOING TO OCCUR CONCERNING THIS ISSUE.
We’re due for a hurricane this year. If it’s a bad one, Citizen’s will collapse. WHAT THEN???
The political events of the next two years will culminate in November 2010 in what can only be seen as WATERSHED ELECTIONS. If the Florida Democratic Party, led by a clear vision of the possibilities, gets their act together and runs a full slate of candidates under a banner of Taking Back Democracy, THEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT PARTY IN THE STATE.
For this to happen, we not only need to talk Mayor Iorio into running for Governor, we need to get Dave Aronberg to step up and run against the incumbent McCollum. People, if we believe in this IT WILL HAPPEN!!!
Another point that ties into this last comment and getting back to my bullet points on how the world has shifted is this:
North Florida will end up being Rep. Meek’s strong suit. Let’s remember, we’re talking about a No-Runoff Democratic primary here, not a general election. Let’s go back to those results from the Presidential Preference Primary.
Let’s just look at Allen Boyd’s own District 2. Here are the results (as massaged somewhat by me to get rid of the also-rans):
Clinton – 35,418
Obama – 40,991
Edwards – 25,279
Does that surprise you? That’s because we’ve had clueless Traditional Media pundits filling our heads with nonsense.
And don’t forget. These are the results before the vaunted Obama ground game moved onto the scene and the state added it's 27 electoral votes to his eventual tally. A lot of Black voters (like Meek himself) still voted for Clinton because of loyalty and because they (like me) didn’t really believe he could win. (I didn’t come around until after Super Tuesday and reading Poblano’s analysis of the results.)
Now, Mary Ann Lindley, the Gail Collins of the Tallahassee Democrat, has pointed out that Al Lawson will be term limited in 2010 and his present state senate seat district pretty much parallels Allen Boyd’s congressional district.
Let me explain a stark political fact to Grandpa Boyd.
By NOT running for US Senate after saying you’re thinking about it you have shown WEAKNESS. And guess what, Buddy Boy, the progressive sharks are circling around your sorry Blue Dog rear-end and WE SMELL BLOOD!!!!!
Folks, I don’t care HOW long he’s been in congress. Look what Ron Klein did against Clay Shaw. WE NEED TO GET AL LAWSON TO PRIMARY BOYD!!!
Or better yet, we need to explain to Grandpa that he might want to rethink his re-election decision and focus on "spending more time with his family."
Let me get serious for a second. I really am a grandfather. I don’t know if Allen Boyd is or not. But, quite frankly, I would rather spend time playing with my grandkids then writing political blogs. This is fun, but it doesn’t even come close to the rewards of being with my family.
My last post was on the movie Milk. In it I mentioned how the film realistically portrayed the toll political life takes on a candidate’s family relationships. You know, it REALLY is time for Allen Boyd to say, I’ve done my part (AND HE TRULY HAS), it’s time I pass this job along to the next generation.
And what about that other political dinosaur Bill McCollum? Hey, dude, the same comment concerning political weakness goes for you! Can we cue the Jaws theme? (BTW, as a literary digression let me mention that The Raw Shark Texts is a fun read. I highly recommend it to my post-modern fellow travelers.)
You know what’s cool about Dave Aronberg? He actually ANSWERS his emails, even from cranks like me! He actively updates his Facebook page. THE GUY GETS IT!
Dave, don’t wait ‘til 2014 and McCollum is term limited. BEAT HIS SORRY CLINTON IMPEACHING ASS NOW!!!!!! Folks, it’s karmic payback time. The wheel has turned. Omigod, I hear Dylan’s classic "The Times They Are A’Changing" playing in the background!
(First Phil Ochs and now Dylan? How do we get these musical allusions into the 21st century? How about Tree Hugger by Kimya Dawson off the Juno soundtrack? Sure, it’s multi-lingual, ecologically meaningful and just LOADS OF FUN!)
So where was I? Oh yeah, North Florida.
What if Rep. Meek gets Lumon May to try again in state house district 3 over in the Pensacola area? What if he convinces Al Lawson to primary Allen Boyd? And what if he GOTVs in Jacksonville like there’s no tomorrow? Are you getting the picture here?
To conclude this rather long (but entertaining) post I need to revisit that earlier reference to constituencies. In my post The First Black Senator I documented Rep. Meek’s connections with former President Bill Clinton, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and Rep. Barney Frank.
Now, I don’t know if he has the clout to actually get these busy people to come down and campaign on his behalf, but I’m SURE he can get video endorsements from all three. So, he takes the Barney Frank one and posts it on the Florida GLBT Democratic Caucus Facebook page. He actually broadcasts the Nancy Pelosi one in the Ft. Lauderdale media market. And he shows the Bill Clinton one statewide.
Don’t you think that would pretty much wrap up his ability to win a NO-RUNOFF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY? Come on people, it’s no contest. What else do I have to do to spell out the inevitable for you?
Before I leave you I must share this little philosophical tidbit. In her worthwhile piece of analysis for Sayfie Review on all of this recent activity, the academic political scientist Dr. Susan McManus included this:
As early as the summer of 2007, everyone assumed that the major national party tickets were sure to be headed by New Yorkers—Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Rudy Giuliani. But no one predicted how Florida’s decision to front-load its presidential primary would dash both expectations. Had the Florida Legislature voted to hold the state’s primary on February 5, Hillary Clinton would very likely have won it just as she did on January 29 (Clinton 49.7%, Obama 33.0%). Clinton would have exited from Super Tuesday with her front-runner status secure, having carried three of the nation’s four largest states (California, New York, Florida) and many others. She very likely would have gone on to secure the nomination.
If you want a real life example of the Chaos Theory Phenomenon of the butterfly flapping its wings and causing a hurricane, you couldn’t do much better than this one. When we speak of Obama’s preternatural luck in his rapid rise through the political realm and how that can seem like Fate to those of us predisposed in that direction, you kind of want to just stop and savor the irony that Marco Rubio’s macho ego is why our country is being led by a history making president. Whew!!!
Now, since this is political advocacy, let me identify myself as Michael Murphree and I live in Tallahassee. I'm not on Rep. Meek's campaign staff and I'm not employed by him in any manner. I am an independent blogger. You can find me on Facebook by searching for the email floridanetroots (AT) yahoo (DOT) com.
So what is Dan Gelber's calling for 2010? I will have a separate diary on this in the future, but it's basically to be the point person in getting redistricting reform passed and also the spokesman for a constitution amendment that will create a true voter initiative type referendum process. That will be the way we Take Back Democracy from lobbyists and a non-responsive legislature.