Last November, Al Gore outlined his policy proposals for climate change. And recently, Aberwulf diaried Joe Romm's ideas. Now that we've had a few months to hit the ground running, we can assess where we were and where we go from here. First of all, we will examine Al Gore's policy proposals; then, we will take a look at Romm's proposals and reconcile them.
First of all, Gore:
First, the new president and the new Congress should offer large-scale investment in incentives for the construction of concentrated solar thermal plants in the Southwestern deserts, wind farms in the corridor stretching from Texas to the Dakotas and advanced plants in geothermal hot spots that could produce large amounts of electricity.
The Obama administration is already committing resources to creating green jobs and the creation of green jobs around the country is already starting to take place:
The City of Tucson is planning to complete some green jobs projects by May 4th.
North Dakota has created hundreds of jobs building and servicing hybrid buses.
The Michigan Economic Growth Authority is about to award hundreds of millions of dollars to jumpstart production of electric car batteries.
In New York, the country's first multistory green industrial facility is opening, creating 800 construction jobs and 1,700 permanent green jobs.
In Wisconsin, stimulus money is paying for $56 million worth of green upgrades for buildings.
There are examples of this all over the country.
Back to Gore:
Second, we should begin the planning and construction of a unified national smart grid for the transport of renewable electricity from the rural places where it is mostly generated to the cities where it is mostly used.
Congress has approved $4.5 billion for the development and implementation of such a grid. One of the main obstacles to overcome is security, according to the article:
However, security researchers warn that things are moving too fast and not all implications are being considered. "I think we are putting the cart before the horse here to get this stuff rolled out very fast," Ed Skoudis, co-founder of network security company InGuardians, commented for CNN.
His opinion is backed up by security experts from IOActive, an information-security consultancy firm, whose management board includes Dam Kaminsky, the researcher who has discovered the famous DNS cache poisoning vulnerability. According to the company, someone with a background in electronics and $500-worth of equipment could hack into some of the currently deployed meters.
From there, they could move up to compromise the entire meter infrastructure and control how energy is delivered to entire areas. Shutting down automated meters and messing with the load balance by increasing or decreasing the power flow is also possible. These actions can result in blackouts and it is very possible that such a localized incident would cause a cascade of disruptions in the grid, in such a network.
I would stress that these are difficulties to work around, not an excuse not to deploy such a grid.
Third, we should help America’s automobile industry (not only the Big Three but the innovative new startup companies as well) to convert quickly to plug-in hybrids that can run on the renewable electricity that will be available as the rest of this plan matures. In combination with the unified grid, a nationwide fleet of plug-in hybrids would also help to solve the problem of electricity storage.
All three American manufacturers are in the process of rolling out electric cars within 1-4 years, as are VW as well as startups such as Tesla and others. Here in Missouri, the governor has already announced that an electric truck manufacturer is locating in Kansas City, creating hundreds of new jobs for the area. One of the main obstacles is the price; however, should Chrysler succeed in its merger talks with Fiat, that would mean that the Italian manufacturer would be able to sell its low-cost 45+ mpg cars here in the US.
Fourth, we should embark on a nationwide effort to retrofit buildings with better insulation and energy-efficient windows and lighting.
As noted above, there is a lot of stimulus money that is going towards that objective.
Fifth, the United States should lead the way by putting a price on carbon here at home, and by leading the world’s efforts to replace the Kyoto treaty next year in Copenhagen with a more effective treaty that caps global carbon dioxide emissions and encourages nations to invest together in efficient ways to reduce global warming pollution quickly, including by sharply reducing deforestation.
Obama is planning to implement carbon reductions through the EPA. While there is a lot of resistance in Congress to the idea of a cap and trade system, Obama's strategy seems to be to bypass Congress and implement such a scheme on his own so that he will not have to rely on Blue Dog votes. And even Blue Dogs admit that can't be stopped:
"Once the Supreme Court declared carbon dioxide to be a pollutant under the Clean Air Act, E.P.A. had no choice but to act," said Representative Rick Boucher, a moderate Democrat from a coal-producing region of Virginia. "Most people would rather have Congress act. We can be more balanced; we can take into account the effects on the economy. But if we don’t undertake this, E.P.A. certainly will."
And the US has come back to the table and is in the process of working towards an international agreement to replace Kyoto.
Al Gore closed his piece with a call for America's youth to serve this country. And there will be many more opportunities for our youth to do so than there were in the previous administration; Obama is about to sign the Serve America Act, which will triple Americorps to 250,000 positions.
So, we are well on our way to implementing Gore's policies thanks to the Obama administration. The next question becomes, where do we go from here? Joe Romm provides some ideas:
# 1 wedge - albedo change through white roofs and pavement ( "soft geo-engineering" )
# 1 wedge - vehicle efficiency: 60mpg standard for all cars, no increase in miles driven
# 2 wedges - wind: two million large wind turbines
# 3 wedges - Concentrated Solar Power aka Solar Baseload
# 3 wedges - energy efficiency: one each for buildings, industry, and cogeneration/heat-recovery (also geothermal heat pumps)
# 1 wedge - solar photovoltaics (PV)
# 2 wedges - end deforestation AND plant new trees covering an area the size of the United States
# 1 wedge - massive conservation post-2030
Painting all roofs and pavement white:
This is not as funny of an idea as we think -- we have known for a long time that white buildings are cooler during summer, as we have found out from Spain's example. And not only that, it turns out that it would reflect dangerous solar rays back into space. And not only that, it turns out that it makes the local temperature cooler -- it turns out that LA is hotter than surrounding areas in summertime because it has so many black roofs.
Vehicle Efficiency:
At the New York International Auto Show, seven different cars were showed that exceed that standard. Once these vehicles get more affordable, we will get to the point where 75% of all Americans can get to work without using a single drop of gas. So, sound public policy should be to continue to push the automakers in that direction and away from the gas guzzlers which helped cause our problem in the first place.
2 million wind turbines:
The Obama administration's plan is actually more ambitious than Romm's proposal. Citing the potential for wind turbines off the coast, Ken Salazar says that given this potential, wind could more than meet all of America's energy needs. That means that we could become an exporter of energy rather than an importer. That means that nuclear would not be needed; Romm includes it in his proposal but admits that it is highly expensive. The US already leads the world in wind power growth and is ready to replace Germany in that regard. And McClatchy reports that wind is growing in this country to the point where it could replace a lot of the auto manufacturing jobs lost in this country. Tidal is also included in the plan.
The New York Times, in a recent editorial, pointed to the fact that traditionally, recoveries are led by the auto industry as well as the housing markets. The problem is that both are shot so badly that they are not likely to fuel such a recovery. But it may well be that the next recovery we have will not be the result of the traditional sectors, but because of the wind industry.
Solar power:
This article states that solar is not cost-effective to be competitive in the near term. However, Romm argues that solar has as much potential for carbon capture as anything, meaning that our first priority regarding solar should be to research ways of making it cheaper and expanding the National Renewable Energy Labratory. And solar advocates are finding ways to make it cheaper. And one of the best ways of doing that are CSP's, which store heat. It is a lot cheaper to store heat than electricity, and the world's largest CSP, a 50 megawatt version, was built in Spain. The National Renewable Energy Labratory is seeking to double that according to the Clean Technica article. And Florida is in the process of building the country's first solar powered city. All this means is that contrary to the industry-funded claims that solar will not be viable even several decades down the road, it is clear that solar has the potential to become the next energy growth industry given these recent successes and given its potential to reduce global warming.
Romm next calls for more energy-efficient buildings and industries; this has already been covered. He also calls for Geothermal Heat Pumps. The government has already passed legislation exponentially expanding tax credits for these, meaning that even a $42,000 system would be affordable for some people. That means that people would no longer have to pay utility bills to heat their homes and they would realize cost savings within six years or so. In addition, corporations like Gulf Power are offering rebates in addition to the government's tax incentives. And in Grosetto Italy, there are now 200,000 residents who no longer have to pay heating or cooling bills because of investment in geothermal.
Photovoltaic:
Despite the costs discussed above, photovoltaic production has been doubling every two years. And one of the ways to reduce cost will be trackers, which are going to be built on a PV solar plant in Colorado. These trackers tilt towards the sun, which means that the plant will collect much more energy than conventional solar systems. Space has been a problem for solar plants; however, PV cells can be placed on roofs and federal stimulus money is helping companies install them. New Mexico is already in the process of giving tax credits to people who install PV cells as well as tax credits for solar and geothermal construction. Consequently, there are already new solar businesses which are locating there thanks to the high degree of sun there. And China is starting to follow our lead on this program as they are beginning to subsidize PV in certain parts of the country.
Wilderness preservation and tree planting
The Obama administration has done its part on conservation -- it has signed a bill into law protecting more than two million acres of wilderness. What is needed now according to Romm is for us to plant trees in an area the size of this country. Obviously, this is not possible here; therefore, it will take a worldwide effort to accomplish this goal. One of the problems is that it is difficult to quantify -- therefore, our first priority should be to devise some sort of system to measure the number of trees planted versus the number of trees destroyed around the world. Our next priority should be to increase our tree planting efforts to the point where we are planting more trees than we are destroying. Our third priority is to set a target date for when we can realize Romm's goal.
Next, Romm says that we must engage in long-term conservation planning, as in post-2030. We will discuss several aspects of that. The California Delta has been a model for environmental mismanagement over the past few decades; it didn't get there overnight, and it will not take overnight to fix it. But state and federal legislators are working to resolve the problems:
Immediately, we should expand proven and cost-effective water supply strategies such as conservation, recycling, groundwater cleanup, desalination, enhanced coordination between reservoirs, and regional water supply projects in Southern California and the Bay Area. President Obama's economic recovery package included a record $126 million for water reuse projects across the West: a good start, but only a drop in the bucket given the demands we face.
In the longer term, we believe that the delta needs a steward, an entity whose sole responsibility is the recovery and health of the delta. We propose a Delta Stewardship Council, which will include representation from different perspectives, all bound by a legal obligation to restore and protect the delta ecosystem. This would help resolve the confusion of 200 federal, state, and local agencies bumping into one another, often at cross purposes, while decision-makers' primary obligations are to outside interests with no responsibility for this critical estuary's survival.
The delta and its watershed also need funding, a conservancy like those California has established to preserve other natural treasures: the coast, the Sierra Nevada and Lake Tahoe.
Much like the Florida Everglades, the delta is a vital economic and environmental resource - not just a plumbing fixture that two-thirds of the state relies upon for its water supply.
Another aspect of long-term planning would be the identification and replication of best practices, such as the replication of the Carbondale (CO) Efficient Building Program:
An Energy Efficient Building Program that has already served as a model for other communities looking to green up construction practices may be getting a facelift only two years after it was first adopted.
Since the Carbondale Efficient Building Program (CEBP) was put in place in June of 2007, it has been well-received by the public and builders, and has largely been a success, according to Jeff Dickinson, a green design consultant working with the town to write the regulatory piece of the town’s larger Energy Plan.
"We have raised the quality of construction in Carbondale," Dickinson wrote in a recent report to the town board, members of which had asked for a review of the code to gauge whether it’s meeting the town’s not-so-long-term energy efficiency goals.
Carbondale’s Energy and Climate Protection Plan is aimed at reducing the town’s carbon footprint by taking a variety of measures, both public and private, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It includes a goal for 30 percent of the town’s energy use to come from renewable sources by 2015.
So, simply engaging in local planning would reduce our reliance on fossil fuels for energy by 30% in less than 10 years. The challenge is to replicate this nationally.
Others are relying on Federal Stimulus Money:
From solar panels to double-pane windows, Monterey County and the city of Salinas are getting ready to invest plenty of green in being greener.
Combined, the local governments will receive about $3.88 million in federal stimulus funds to spend on energy efficiency and conservation projects. The funds come from a U.S. Department of Energy grant to help local jurisdictions cut down on energy use and fossil fuel emissions.
Denise Estrada, director of maintenance services for Salinas, said the money will be extremely welcome as local governments look to become more energy efficient. Estrada said cities and counties are looking at energy efficiency as a result of California's Global Warming Solutions Act, which encourages local governments to voluntarily reduce emissions and their carbon footprint.
"I think there are going to be some exciting times with alternative energy," Estrada said.
Among some of the long-term projects that Romm advocates are:
Tidal and similar forms of power:
Tidal has the potential to generate as much as 5% of the UK's coast. And now, there are companies that are generating hydrokinetic power. Hydrokinetic power is power that is generated from a river's natural currents as opposed to building a dam and using it to generate power. The Orkney Islands have some of the biggest potential for tidal power in the world, prompting the Scottish Government to auction off many parcels for development of tidal power. Here in the US, in Maine, grant money is being used to research tidal turbines as well as the impact of tidal power.
The future of coal:
Obviously, one of the biggest fears of the coal producing regions of the country is that Obama's green policies would mean a major economic depression for areas heavily economically dependent on coal. This is why once-blue West Virginia is now solidly red and the Appalachian region is one of the few regions where Obama did worse than Bush in 2004. But there are now ways of creating carbon neutral operations that do not involve mountaintop removal:
First Energy Corp. announced this week that it is going to spend $200 million to convert its R.E. Burger Power Plant near Shadyside, Ohio, so it can burn a mix of coal and biomass — wood and plant wastes.
The Columbus Dispatch has a story about this, and they report:
Bruce Nilles, director of the Sierra Club’s National Coal Campaign, said FirstEnergy’s decision will create less pollution from a cleaner fuel. Unlike coal, burned biomass doesn’t emit mercury, a potent neurotoxin, or sulfur dioxide, a compound that helps create smog, soot and acid rain. "It’s a lot less toxic pollution," he said.
The company expects the fuel to come from crops grown specifically for that source. That would create what’s called a "carbon sink" or a "carbon-neutral" operation, meaning the crops would pull as much carbon dioxide from the environment as they produce when burned.
So, a possible solution would be to convert all our coal plants over a period of time into coal/biomass operations that are much more environmentally friendly and which would preserve the economy of coal producing states.
Thorium based fuels:
Congress is directing the Navy to study ways of using Thorium for electricity. Unlike conventional nuclear plants, which are expensive and unsustainable, Thorium plants have much more potential, both as a foreign policy tool as well as a piece of our energy puzzle. There is much less waste generated than with conventional nuclear plants; also, we could give away the technology to other countries as a way of stopping nuclear weapons proliferation; Thorium cannot be used to produce nukes like conventional nuclear materials can.
Cellulostic Biofuels:
One of the problems with the biofuel industry is that it takes away from land that was used for food production; this caused food prices to spike. There are plenty of obstacles to be overcome before cellulose; one of the ways people are looking at making it more practical is to grow poplar trees on land that is not suitable for growing corn and then adding bacteria to make them grow.
Soil and biochar:
Most carbon in the soil is lost as greenhouse gas (carbon dioxide, CO2) into the atmosphere if natural ecosystems are converted to agricultural land. Soils contain 3.3 times more carbon than the atmosphere and 4.5 times more than plants and animals on earth (1). This makes soils an important source of greenhouse gases but also a potential sink if right management is applied. The use of crop residues for bio-energy production reduces the carbon stocks in cropland. Further the dedication of cropland to bio-fuel production increases the area of cultivated land and thus carbon loss from soils and vegetation.
Pyrolysis of waste biomass can generate fuels and biochar recalcitrant against decomposition. If biochar is returned to agricultural land it can increase the soil’s carbon content permanently and would establish a carbon sink for atmospheric CO2. In this case the use of crop residues as a potential energy source may improve soil quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in a complementary not competing way. Biochar is proposed as a soil amendment in environments with low carbon sequestration capacity and previously depleted soils (especially in the Tropics). From previous studies it is known that soil biochar amendments increase and maintain soil fertility (2) and the human-made Terra Preta soils in the Ama-zon prove that infertile soils can be transformed into fertile soils and long term carbon enrichment is feasible even in environments with low carbon sequestration capacity (3).