Yes, yes, yes, Arlen Specter is, thus far, a very shitty Democrat. You'll get no argument from me on this one. I have yet to see him do a damned thing that helps us that he would not have done anyway as a moderate Republican. This morning on Meet the Press he managed to piss me off pretty badly. These are big issues we're debating as a country. Reasonable people can disagree and I certainly don't see a problem with someone named Arlen Specter opposing EFCA, a public health care option, or the budget. I have a problem with a Democrat taking all of those positions. Sure, Senator Specter is probably safe to pick an issue or two on which to fuck us. He can have a mulligan or two, maybe. But yes, he's rapidly run out of mulligans.
So far I probably sound much like the rest of you. So why the title? Why do I think you're (nearly) all wrong about Senator Specter? Frankly it's because he's a calculating son of a bitch who has literally admitted that the primary reason he hopped to our side of the aisle is his political survival.
Let us consider this....
Arlen Specter changed his party affiliation because he no longer trusts the Pennsylvania Republican primary voters to judge him. Fair enough. He basically just shot the finger to hundreds of thousands of people with whom he agrees on a large number of issues. Those folks probably agree with him on EFCA, no public health care option, and the budget. Despite that agreement, these people will be of zero help to him in November of 2010. They aren't gonna vote for him. They're gonna vote for Toomey, or Ridge, or whomever the Republicans decide to run.
Arlen Specter is a calculating political animal who apparently values his political survival at least (hah!) as highly as his policy views. He has switched political parties twice. He obviously does hold some honest-to-God beliefs, but it's not clear which ones aren't negotiable. No, he's made his bed and I don't know that he realizes just how trapped he is.
Arlen Specter has made it plain that nothing is more important to him (as a politician) than his re-election. He is probably right that he would be re-elected in the general election regardless of which party affiliation he carried. He learned, via polling, protests, and personal attacks that the Republican primary was the end of the line for him. He'll learn much the same lesson with the Democratic primary if he doesn't straighten the fuck out fast.
And he (probably) will. Guys, keep pressuring him. Keep it up. If he wants our help he'll not only have to earn it, but he'll have to give good value for the bargain! I will probably move to Pennsylvania before the next primary. I'll consider voting for the man if he finds the moral weakness to succumb to some form of liberal orthodoxy. I'd rather have a stalwart for a Senator, but I'll take Mr. Self-Centered if he stays bought.
No, he'll flip on several, if not most, of these issues as polling makes it plain that straying so far to the right will end his career on the left. There must be room in our caucus for moderate or even "conservative" Democrats, and I'm sure there is. However, even Evan freaking Bayh gets the message - there are issues on which we may disagree, but you damned well vote for cloture. You wanna vote against the bill on the floor? That's your decision, and I can respect that. But you vote for cloture or we toss you out on your ass.
Arlen Specter made a deal with the devil. He'll give good value once he realizes he has literally no other way to survive politically. Give him a few months of hell and he'll buckle under. It's inevitable. He'll see the sense of it.