Just posted yesterday in Newsweek Online Fareed Zakaria put forth a cogent and worthwhile analysis of the emerging rifts in the Iranian Power Structure. As is becoming usual, he also challenges some of the soft thinking that passes for actual analysis these days and points to an obvious rift opening up to which we had better pay attention. Be sure to read the article Newsweek, Fareed Zakaria
The title is pitch perfect:
On Iran, Do Nothing. Yet.
He then goes on to describe that the fault line that has opened up in the ruling elite is between the clergy and the military. People confuse the position of the Supreme Leader (Clergy) as being necessarily representative of that point of view. However, not one Grand Ayatollah has come out in favor of Ahmadinejad's government and one has in fact issued a fatwa sanctioning the absence from Ahmadinejad's upcoming inauguration. In addition, in the Western obsession with a "nuclear program" has heightened this lack of perception.
The hyperbole in America and Israel about apocalyptic mullahs with nukes missed the big story in Iran, which was that the mullahs were not apocalyptic, and they were fading in influence anyway. One might have said that the Islamic Republic of Iran is losing its distinct religious basis of power and becoming another Middle Eastern dictatorship—except that it now hosts an opposition movement that does not seem ready to quiet down.
Hillary's recent statements about a nuclear umbrella, moreover, imply calm and the ability to use containment rationale in the face of a nuclear threat that is still truly not known.
Some argue that this allows Iran to inch closer to a bomb. But the best way to blunt that threat—which is still not imminent—has always been deterrence and containment, a policy that worked against Stalin and Mao and works against North Korea, a far more unstable and bizarre regime.
Indeed, right now everyone needs to calm down a bit and stop talking about bombing. What kind of reaction do you think we will get from a self-conscious regime that doubts its' own legitimacy? Iran is not going anywhere, and nor are their neighbors. At this time it makes far more sense to keep our powder dry and our options open. To conclude again from FZ:
Time is not on the current Iranian regime's side. Amid all this confusion, we have a clear answer to a crucial puzzle. We always wondered, are there moderates in Iran? Yes, it turns out—millions of them.
Relax, sit back and when something clear emerges let's attempt respectful negotiations. BTW, I think Obama has played this whole crisis pretty close to perfect. Be patient and read the recent Newsweek piece by FZ its well worth the 5 minutes it will take you. Here's the link again:Fareed Zakaria in Newsweek