I am a Virginian. Virginia is unusual in that in three out of every four years we have a statewide election. In the fourth year we have General Assembly elections, and the outcomes of those elections are, to some extent, predetermined by the gerrymandering of electoral districts. Not so with statewide elections. These statewide elections show what the two political parties are capable of when they go head to head. These elections are the real test of party strength.
The last three statewide elections have been victories for the Democratic Party. In 2005, we managed to push Tim Kaine over the finish line, though we lost the Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor's races by narrow margins. In 2006, in a campaign driven almost exclusively by the spirit of grassroots and netroots activists, we upset heavily favored George Allen and put Jim Webb in the U.S. Senate. In 2008, Barack Obama's community organizer/netroots model crushed John McCain in Virginia.
So why are the Democratic candidates in Virginia this faring so poorly, as this poll would seem to indicate?
The answer is a little complicated.
In each party there is an unelected, unpaid class of grassroots and netroots activists. These are the people who do the heavy lifting in any campaign, much more so than highly paid consultants would like to admit. A highly motivated, self-organizing group of activists can take down a much better financed campaign. George Allen outspent Jim Webb by about two to one, but lost because of the hard work of Webb's volunteers. Webb's volunteers were everywhere more numerous, more excited, and better organized than George Allen's campaign--whether paid or unpaid.
Tim Kaine also had a large, well organized group of volunteers. And of course, what Barack Obama did in terms of recruiting and using volunteers last year dwarfs any other political campaign in history. Highly motivated activists are the key to a political party's success in Virginia.
Virginia's Democratic activists are not excited or motivated right now.
Broadly speaking, there are two reasons for this. The first and most obvious was the divisive three-way Democratic primary. Virginia's Democratic activists were split into three camps. Many invested themselves deeply in the campaigns they worked on. When McAuliffe and Moran lost, many of their hard core supporters--consciously or unconsciously--checked out of the process.
To some extent that is natural. People need to mourn. The Webb-Miller primary in 2006 was far more acrimonious and divisive. But most of Miller's supporters came home to the Democratic cause by October, and supported Webb--many even volunteered for him. Harris Miller deserves a lot of the credit for that for the gracious way he himself supported Webb after the primary. Likewise, Brian Moran and Terry McAuliffe have also graciously thrown their support to Creigh Deeds, so it seems safe to predict that even Moran and McAuliffe's most hard core supporters will return to the Democratic fold by September or October at the latest.
So what is the other factor robbing Virginia Democrats of momentum?
The failure of Democratic electeds to deliver on their campaign promises. No, scratch that. The failure of Democratic electeds to even try and deliver on their campaign promises. The sole exception I can think of is Jim Webb's improved G.I. Bill. Webb delivered on his promise in full, and deserves credit for doing so. If only other Democratic electeds had Webb's courage and determination.
Last year, when the bankers that caused the current economic disaster called for help, both Democratic and Republican elected officials fell over themselves to help those people. In a matter of days hundreds of billions of taxpayer money and credit secured by taxpayers were handed over to these bankers with little or no questions asked. We were told that this was necessary to save the economy, and if this is true then it was all well and good.
But then nothing was done for ordinary Americans.
Democratic activists, with a few notable exceptions, are not especially wealthy people, and neither are our friends and family. We suffer layoffs. Our friends and families suffer layoffs. These things aren't abstract concepts for us. Everyday we hear more stories about lost jobs, lost homes, illness without healthcare . . . the list goes on and on. And it seems as though nothing has been done to help these people. The bankers who caused this disaster were bailed out in days, or escaped with multi-million dollar golden parachutes. When is someone going to fight for ordinary Americans?
I left the Democratic Party after being unemployed for four months. I got tired of being bombarded with a dozen e-mails a day asking me to give $5, $10, $25, $50 or $100 to help out the Democratic Party when the Democratic Party was doing nothing to help me or my family or my friends. I suspect a lot of other Democratic activists are sharing my disillusionment to some extent or other.
It's very difficult for me to look back on the last four yours and the countless hundreds of hours I have volunteered and dollars donated to the Democratic Party only to watch Senator Max Baucus betray everything me and my fellow Democratic activists have worked for. Apparently the only thing we have achieved is to increase Max Baucus' selling price for the healthcare lobby.
Americans need jobs, healthcare, and decent places to live--whether rented or owned. The Republican Party denies that we, as a nation, have any responsibility to meet those needs. Apparently most Democratic electeds have come to feel the same way as their Republican colleagues. So far, despite the fact that Democrats control the presidency and both houses of congress, it is the Republican agenda of doing nothing to help ordinary Americans that is being enacted. Not only are Democrats not working to help ordinary Americans, they don't even seem particularly concerned. We are told to wait, "be patient," and help will eventually trickle down to us.
Obama promised hope and change, but he hasn't delivered either.
But the Republican Party's victory this year is far from assured. The Democratic Party still has time to turn things around. But if it wants Democratic activists to return to the battle with the same passion and motivation we have showed in the last four years they are going to have to deliver on some of their campaign promises. We fought to put Democrats in the White House and in control of Congress. Now it is time for them to fight for us.
I want to see some anger and some passion from the Democrats we elected to represent us. I want to see Obama lose his cool and twist some arms. The time has come to stop the victory parade and get to work to produce some real results for ordinary Americans.
If the Democrats can't produce results--or refuse to produce results--then they can no longer expect activists to take to the streets--and the internet--on their behalf. And the Democratic Party cannot win elections without unpaid activists. If we stay home, the Democratic Party loses. If we stay home, the Republican Party wins by default. The leaders of the Democratic Party would do well to ponder that fact.