So, I was trying to better educate myself on the unemployment numbers and I happened upon the DoL website and I saw that the number of folks that were unemployed in total dropped by about a hundred thousand in the two weeks from July 25- August 8th to 6,241,000 from 6,343,000.
I thought cool, then I scrolled down the page and saw that in the one week from July 25 to August 1 48,000 people dropped off of the Federal Extended Unemployment benefits. Perhaps, all 48,000 got jobs that week. I don't believe that to be the case. Is this one week's 48,000 being counted in the two week improvement? My online research tells me no, but, I'm open to a teachable moment.
Then there was this indicating recent good news in July about decreasing unemployment numbers was merely due to early seasonal auto plant closures...
We're clearly bottoming, we're clearly stabilizing -- the question is what do you do for the second act. That's what everybody's shifting to right now. With the initial claims numbers, one of the things that people are wondering, is it due to the fact that with all the layoffs in the auto industry? How much of that was simply because stuff that would've been done now was done earlier? So it's kind of a seasonal adjustment -- but we won't know about that until we see more data.[2] Initial claims staying well below 600,000 in August would indicate some fundamental improvement in a still-weak jobs market. "That would be a clear sign that layoffs are slowing down," said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.[16]
How are we bottoming when apparently we are headed towards 10% unemployment in a few months? We're at 9.4ish right now. Isn't 10% the bottom? Maybe we're closer than we are being told? Maybe 10% isn't the bottom. The number sounds a bit arbitrary to me.
And are the steadily rising initial jobless claims (575,000 last week) far enough below 600,000 to be significant? Over half a million job losses a week sounds like a lot to me. Particularly, with the harmonic effects of diminished spending, credit defaults, and foreclosures, and since summer break isn't quite over.
I want to be optimistic, but when two of our largest industries; homes and autos are being kept afloat by temporary government subsidies; which, are also probably providing an emergency brake on unemployment numbers, I find myself at a loss to join in the irrational exuberance of others.
Again, I could be wrong and am open to other points of view.