The President gave a speech today in front of the AFL-CIO in which he used his most consistent language in recent weeks to describe his position on the Public Option. Esteemed diarist and blogger extraordinaire buhdydharma penned a celebratory diary claiming a Progressive victory in solidifying the White House's position. A diary which, though an addendum was added to drive action, seemingly celebrates victory less than 36 hours after the Sunday morning message mess involving Axelrod and Gibbs. The diary rocketed to the top of the recommend list and the audible exhale in the comments actually blew my kilt up in the air.
When one considers the audience for the President's speech today, I can't help but wonder if anything changed at all.
To me, message is loud and clear.
WE AIN'T WON NOTHING YET.
If this was a movie, we'd be 30 minutes in. No way to know yet exactly how it's going to play out or even who is for sure a "good guy."
If it's a game, we're wrapping up the first quarter. We just threw a touchdown pass, but the officials are reviewing it as we speak, and we won't find out the call until Wednesday. Even then, we're only up 10-7. We're one play from losing the lead.
Remember what he said. "And I continue to believe that a Public Option within that basket of insurance choices will help improve quality and bring down costs." That is the only mention. Okay, I'm glad he said that, but so? Where in that statement should I take heart? What there is more definitive than what we've been hearing for months? And maybe I am picking at nits here, but that line was delivered with a lot less point and vigor than the other points he makes. He saves the fire and brimstone for the other points. I am glad he's not emphasizing the "one part of reform" clause, but I do not believe, based on closely watching him operate, that Obama will ever veto reform without the public option.
And that means the Progressive Caucus is still the ONLY CARD we have. If even 10-20 of those members waver, we're done. And I am concerned that this is Barack's plan all along. He will call some of them in if a bill passed the Seante without the PO. And he'll sit them down and ultimately break them.
He'll tell them they are standing in the way of XX million people getting insurance, XX million kids being covered, XX million small business jobs saved, XX million whatever. And then he'll make promises. Big promises regarding fundraising, positioning, appointments, Supreme Court (something the house usually has no say in). Promises regarding the future of health care. And he'll make comparisons to progress on race and religion and sexual orientation. He'll hit them with incremental logic.
He'll turn on the charm and tick off all the battles forthcoming and tell them how much he wants to get done in 7 more years. And then he'll hit them like a cop does a band of criminals. "Whoever decides to get us the votes first will be in the passenger seat for the next 7 years, the others can wait for another ride." And enough of them will cave. Enough will fold.
Why? Not because they are bad people. Not because they don't believe in the PO (heck they probably would fight for single payer). They will fold because they have a heart. Because progressives care about others, they are a target for manipulation. Republicans won't budge. Republicans don't give two shits about how many people will be helped or hurt by a bill, only it's effects on their electoral coffers and corporate supporters. After all, who will they be working for when they're done "training" in Congress.
But Progressives? Easy marks. Not only do we bleed for the suffering, we are quick to believe what people tell us. We'll assume the best and rarely plan for the worst. And most of all, we have to believe in something to fight for it or against it. Republicans are not encumbered by that connection.
Is all of this going to happen? Shit I have no idea. But even after today's speech, even after Wednesday's speech, even if the Dems grow a set and commit to Reconciliation, I believe we have won absolutely NOTHING until the President's signature is dry on a bill that includes a robust PO on day one.
That said, please go to firedoglake or here and whip that progressive caucus, donate if you can. kid oakland (not that he needs my help to get attention) has a tremendous action diary up, and I believe his call for letters to the president is a genius one, aimed at influencing the only vote outside the Progressive Caucus that really matters at this point.
And if you think what I have outlined in this diary is likely at all, please call as many of the Progressive Caucus members and press them on this scenario. If there's wiggle room on the answer, ask if they can get clarity from the congressperson. Ask if you can call back for the answer tomorrow or the day after.
It may feel good to believe Obama was "rope-a-doping" or whatever, but we don't know that either. What we do know is that Republicans and "Blue Dogs" will remain intransigent. If the President is as smart as we know he is, and he believes any bill is better than no bill, he's going to come after the Progressive Caucus. DON'T LET HIM BREAK THEM.