There was a lot more to the release of Thursday's "
Census Bureau Report on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage In The United States: 2008" than meets the eye. At the same time, there was some really outstanding and incisive coverage of it available to anyone that bothered to look around for it, too.
One of those doing an outstanding job in this regard is one of the newer bloggers, right here in the community, Steven Pressman. I've taken the liberty of providing links to his posts at the bottom of this diary. An economics professor at Monmouth College and the author of a dozen books, he's the real deal!
Taking Pressman's (and other pundit's) coverage of this report a step further, I wanted to "translate" these numbers (I'm providing "guesstimates," allowing for an across-the-board increase of 10%, accounting for the breadth and depth of the U.S. economic downturn over the past eight months) collected by our government throughout 2008, a step further into 2009, as well as to provide some additional source quotes and information related to this effort, if for no other reason than to add more urgency to this topic than any dataset collected prior to Q1 and Q2 '09 (arguably, the most severe portion of our nation's economic downturn, to date) might convey.
As it turns out, Hope Yen over at the Associated Press already started scratching the surface, as did President Obama, himself, anecdotally, with regard to where I'm going with my "guesstimated projections" in this diary, too: "Number of uninsured rises to 46.3 million."
Number of uninsured rises to 46.3 million
By HOPE YEN (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
September 10, 2009 11:32 AM EDT
...The numbers for 2008 do not capture the economic impact in the first half of 2009 as hundreds of thousands of Americans lost their jobs and likely their health insurance. Speaking at the White House, Obama acknowledged that the number of those without coverage may be higher than the Census figures.
"The situation's grown worse over the last 12 months," he said. "Its estimated that the ranks of the uninsured have swelled by at least 6 million."
--SNIP--
Analysts warned that the declines in the uninsured, although modest, were likely just the tip of the iceberg, given significantly higher unemployment rates seen in 2009. Based on current job losses, for instance, some researchers estimate the present-day number of uninsured is closer to 50 million, the number now used by the Congressional Budget Office.
Diane Rowland, executive vice president of the Kaiser Family Foundation, also noted the decreases in the percentage of people with employer-provided insurance in 2008 for the eighth year in a row. She cited the proliferation of small businesses, which typically decline to offer insurance because of rising premium costs, which could lead to additional declines in private insurance even if the economy improves.
Bold type is diarist's emphasis.
# # #
HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE
First, President Obama commenting, later Thursday, on the health insurance coverage portion of the report: "Obama: Data on uninsured show health reform need."
Obama: Data on uninsured show health reform need
By RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
September 10, 2009 1:34 PM EDT
...Before a crowd of cheering nurses in an office building adjoining the White House, Obama said that too many people are being cut off from coverage.
"It is heartbreaking and it is wrong and nobody should be treated that way in the United States of America. Nobody!" the president said. He also cited new Census statistics, released Thursday, showing that the number of uninsured has risen to 46.3 million from 45.7 million in 2007.
The New York Times, in an editorial appearing today, Friday: "A Clear Responsibility."
A Clear Responsibility
New York Times Editorial
Published: September 10, 2009 In Print: September 11, 2009
...Any critic who still questions the need for health care reform or rails against a "government takeover" of health care should look at the latest Census Bureau estimates of the number of people without health insurance in this country -- and the number who have avoided disaster precisely because of government help.
The overall number of the uninsured rose from 45.7 million in 2007 to 46.3 million in 2008. The fact that tens of millions of Americans may be one major illness away from bankruptcy is unacceptable. But there is also some heartening news: The increase was relatively small considering the depth of the economic crisis. That is only because government programs helped offset the decline of private insurance and employer-based coverage.
An aging population made more people eligible for Medicare, that much-maligned "single-payer" government program that provides coverage to almost all of the nation's elderly, usually to their deep satisfaction. And deepening poverty rates made more people eligible for Medicaid, a joint federal-state program to cover the poor.
A strong push to enroll children in either Medicaid or S-chip, the state health insurance program for children from low-income families, has driven the number and rate of uninsured children to its lowest levels since 1987, the first year comparable data were collected. This is a stunning achievement -- courtesy of your federal and state governments.
The most worrisome trend is that the number of adults under age 65 who lack insurance is high and rising, reaching 20 percent of that age group last year. The number of uninsured adults increased by 1.5 million in 2008. The toll in 2009 is likely to be worse as unemployment rates continue to rise, depriving workers of their group coverage, and more companies drop or shrink health benefits...
Adding 10% to the report numbers from 2008 to arrive at guesstimated numbers for 2009, I would say it's safe to make the following statements (but, again, this is just a guesstimate):
50,930,000 Americans will probably uninsured by the end of this year.
It is possible, if not probable, that by December 31st, 2009, the number of uninsured adults will have increased by 4,630,000.
Also by year's end, it is likely that 22% of all Americans under 65 will be uninsured.
# # #
POVERTY
From Reuters' Felix Salmon: "depressing income and poverty data."
The depressing income and poverty data
Reuters
September 10th, 2009
Posted by: Felix Salmon
There's no good news in today's data from the Census bureau...
--SNIP--
...Oh, and the number of people in poverty increased by a whopping 2.5 million, to 39.8 million: 13.2% of the population, the highest poverty rate in over a decade. How poor do you need to be in order to be counted as living in poverty? Very poor:
From our government...
As defined by the Office of Management and Budget and updated for inflation using the Consumer Price Index, the weighted average poverty threshold for a family of four in 2008 was $22,025; for a family of three, $17,163; for a family of two, $14,051; and for unrelated individuals, $10,991.
And more from Salmon...
The poverty rate for children under the age of 18 is now an eye-popping 19%: basically one child in every five is living in poverty in the US. And even if a slow economic recovery is beginning to take hold, I can't see that number declining much in the foreseeable future. Which is unconscionable, in the richest country in the world.
Update: Emily Monea and Isabel Sawhill of the Brookings Institution have a paper out which says that "the poverty rate will increase rapidly through 2011 or 2012, at which point about 14.4 percent of the country will be in poverty", and that the number of children living in poverty could rise by 5 million, or 38%, to 18 million.
And, Steve Pressman has some stunning projections on the reality that our government, more likely than not, is extensively undercounting those living in poverty in this country, across-the-board. Checkout the first three diary links on his list of diaries, below.
Adding 10% to the report numbers for poverty from 2008 to arrive at guesstimated numbers for 2009 and beyond, I would say it's safe to make the following statements (but, again, this is just a guesstimate):
The poverty rate for children under the age of 18 may well be at around 21%, right now.
More than one child in every five is living in poverty in this country as I write this, too.
More than one out of every seven people in the U.S. is, or will be, living poverty within the next 24 months.
# # #
INCOME
Once again, from Reuters' Felix Salmon (see links, above):
...real median household income fell 3.6% between 2007 and 2008, from $52,163 to $50,303. That's a drop of over $1,800: real money.
Naturally, the pain was concentrated in the poorer parts of the US: incomes in the South fell by 4.9% to $45,590, while incomes in the Northeast were unchanged at $54,346.
From David Leonhardt at the NY Times Economix blog (as noted by Salmon): "A Decade With No Income Gain"
(Salmon: "[Leonhardt] points out that real incomes fell over the course of the past decade, from $51,295 in 1998 to $50,303 in 2008.")
In the four decades that the Census bureau has been tracking household income, there has never before been a full decade in which median income failed to rise. (The previous record was eight years, ending in 1986.) Other Census data suggest that it also never happened between the late 1940s and the late 1960s. So it doesn't seem to have happened since at least the 1930s.
From Simon Johnson over at Baseline Scenario, concerning the all-around bigger picture, less than two weeks ago:
More On The Two-Track Economy -- From The WSJ And Others
Simon Johnson
The Baseline Scenario
August 29th, 2009
The notion of a two-track economy seems to be taking hold. We kicked the concept around pretty well last week -- your 130 comments (as of this morning) helped clarify a great deal of what we know, don't know, and need to worry about. The two-track concept overlaps with, and builds on, long-standing issues of inequality in the U.S., but it's also different. Within existing income classes, some people find themselves in relatively good shape and others are completely hammered.
New dimensions of differentiation are also taking hold within occupations and within industries - the WSJ this morning has nice illustrations. The contours of this differentiation begin to shape our recovery or, if you prefer, who recovers and who does not - it's hard to say how this will play out in conventional aggregate statistics, but these are likely to become increasingly misleading.
--SNIP--
This can lead to short-term growth - the speed of recovery in many emerging markets surprises many, from about 12 months after the crisis breaks. But it also leads to repeated crisis, to derailed growth, and to a loss of income, status, and prospects for most of society.
Including anecdotal data I've heard in passing that incomes are now down over 5% since the start of the recession in December 2007, and then adding 10% to that and the report's income numbers for 2008 to arrive at guesstimated numbers for 2009 and beyond, this means:
Real median household income will probably fall at least a total of 5.5% between 2007 and the end of 2009, from $52,163 to approximately $49,294. This translates to a possible drop of approximately $2,869 in annual earnings per household. Or, as Salmon says: "real money."
Projecting upon the Census Bureau's '08 results, for the period from December 2007 to December 2009, incomes in the South will probably fall to at least $45,302, while incomes in the Northeast will most likely drop to somewhere on or around $54,020.
# # #
OUTSTANDING ANALYSIS FROM KOSSACK, AUTHOR AND ECONOMIST STEVEN PRESSMEN
I want to bring a new, fellow Kossack's diaries to the attention of those reading this now. The new diarist of whom I speak is Steven Pressman. He's an economist at Monmouth College; and what I've read of his posts over the past few weeks, since he first started blogging here (I just started catching up on his diaries over the past 24 hours, since that's when I became aware of him/them), is awesome! Wow! A real, live economist--from academia no less and an author of a dozen books on the subject to boot--blogging right here on Daily Kos! Some real credibility behind his words. Here are the links to his diaries---
Here's a three-part series Steve Pressman just concluded on poverty (it's outstanding):
"More Bad News- Poverty and Income Data for 2008"
"Problems with How the Government Measures Poverty"
"HOW THE GOVERNMENT MEASURES POVERTY"
And, here are links to the other diaries that he's posted (over the 30 days he's been posting diaries here):
"A PLAN FOR BAILING OUT HOMEOWNERS"
"The Politics and Economics of the Bad Unemployment Report"
"Fixed News On Health Care Reform"
"In Defense of Ben"
"A Willis Reed Moment for Health Care Reform"
"Why the Recession is Not over Yet"
"Tis the Season(ing): The Truth about US Unemployment"