The 24 hour news cycle sometimes blinds us to the larger picture that emerges over weeks and months of individual events. Obama made his opening chess move to the Islamic world in June of this year with an historic speech aimed at reconciliation and improved understanding between East and West. The Green Revolution in Iran was an immediate byproduct of that effort. Now, leading up to a critical set of meetings this week in Geneva with Ahmadinejad, the master chess player has orchestrated a series of moves that will likely lead to either complete Iranian capitulation on nukes, or their complete and total isolation from the world community.
Henry Kissinger, of all people, compared Obama to a chess playerhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Henry Kissinger, of all people, said of Obama's speech in Cairo:
Obama is like a chess player who is playing simultaneous chess and has opened his game with an unusual opening.
One immediate effect of the Cairo speech in Tehran:
In Iran, Ahmadinejad has claimed victory in an election many Iranians believe was blatantly stolen. Obama's speech made it easier for the challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi, to denounce Ahmadinejad's foreign policy. It will make it harder for the Iranian leader to use the American bogeyman as an excuse for future repression.
A key audience for the Cairo speech were the Iranian people. Obama, intentionally or otherwise, created a wedge between Ahmadinejad and a large portion of his people. Ahmadinejad undermined his own moral authority with a fraudulent election, however, it was Obama who set the table for an Iranian uprising in the event that sanctions against Iran are needed to dissuade it from developing nuclear weapons. Ahmadinejad has little leverage within his own country and his position going into Geneva this week is severely weakened.
One week ago, Obama stated that he will discontinue missile defense efforts in Eastern Europe. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev responded to this move:
As I see it, there is only one way to move forward: Washington should agree to the Russian proposal for a joint assessment of missile threats. Let the experts from both countries have a frank discussion that would reveal which threats are real and must be dealt with, and which are imaginary. This would help to avoid misguided projects like the Polish-Czech missile shield, and could help move us from a state of mutual deterrence to a goal of minimum nuclear sufficiency for self-defense.
This is a big agenda. Realistically, it would take two or three years of intense negotiation. But Russia and the United States must set big tasks for themselves. What is needed is nothing less than a change in the strategic relationship between the two major nuclear powers — in their own interests and in the cause of world peace.
President Medvedev of Russia had this to say after with his meeting with Obama on Wednesday:
Today, when I'm communicating with the U.S. president, I get the feeling that he's attentively listening. He doesn't preach to you as a mentor, which is not very nice. When you are preaching to others, it's not nice. People like him not only here in the United States but in other countries as well. So he's managed to do certain things that others have failed to do. I believe if personal relations between the leaders are good, then it will be easier to build better relations for the future.
(For example), a recent decision by the President of the United States regarding forgoing the third site on ABM missile defense. Of course, this decision was determined by Barack Obama's mindset. It was not pro-Russia nor pro-Chinese nor pro-Europe, this was an American decision. What's important is Barack Obama listened to my position. Perhaps it was part of the basis for his decision. We are learning to listen to each other. This is a change from the previous administration. I think these are bold, courageous decisions, to change decisions of previous administrations concerning foreign policy. This was a complex decision. I tried to put myself in his shoes. It would not have been easy for me. It deserves our respect. We don't know what will happen next, but if we are continually attentive to each other, our relations will have a good future.
Seen by many as a capitualtion to Russia, the decision to abandon anti-missile defense in Eastern Europe is part of a larger strategy to engender Russian cooperation in the larger effort to contain nuclear proliferation. Certainly Gorby sees it that way and I believe he's right. This move bore immediate fruit as it concerned the Russian reaction to news of Iran's previously undisclosed facility near Qom:
"Sanctions rarely lead to productive results, but in some cases sanctions are inevitable," Medvedev said at the conclusion of the meeting.
This kind of agreement between the US and Russia regarding Iran nukes was unthinkable a year ago and now it is a reality.
This week President Obama chaired the UN Security Council which voted 15-0 to limit the spread of nuclear weapons.
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown were among the leaders who joined in a 15-0 vote for the nuclear-disarmament resolution.
This newfound alignment within the UN Security Council is very impressive and affirms Obama's sway with world leaders on this very sensitive and important subject.
Ahmadinejad thought himself clever by half when Iran acknowledged in a letter to the IAEA that it had a "pilot facility" in Qom. Obama quickly marshaled the support of France, Germany and the UK to expose the lie that Ahmadinejad had just conveyed.
To beat the U.S., Britain and France to the punch, Iran on Monday informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) about the nuclear facility. That was three days before the allies presented the United Nations watchdog group with its intelligence.
"It's very clear the Iran letter (to the IAEA) is too little, too late," said a U.S. official. It'll be difficult for Iran to "mount a defense" of its efforts to avoid exposure of its nuclear fuel processing facility.
Another official said Iran's notification to the U.N. nuclear agency was "very sparse," providing "almost no detail" about the kind of facility it was building. And it was supposed to notify IAEA years earlier, when the plant was being conceived, not years after construction began.
If nothing else, Administration officials believe the disclosure about the secret plant will set back Iran's nuclear weapons program and enhance the diplomatic leverage of the U.S. and its allies in dealing with the Iranian regime.
With Russia softening its position on sanctions and China now very "concerned" about the disclosure, diplomatic pressure will be heavy indeed this week in Geneva.
Mr. Ahmadinejad, I believe it is your move.
And to Mr. Bolton and his neocon fellow travelers: just STFU. You just aren't very good at chess.