In the New York Times this morning, Frank Rich writes:
Most worrisome, in Goldstein’s view, is the notion that a recycling of America’s failed "clear and hold" strategy in Vietnam could work in Afghanistan. How can American forces protect the population, let alone help build a functioning nation, in a tribal narco-state consisting of some 40,000 mostly rural villages over an area larger than California and New York combined?
Many reputed analysts doubt the success of our Afghan strategy with or without a surge, and see withdrawal as inevitable, sooner-or-later.
It puzzles me that a third-way forward is never discussed -- treating the Afghan problem as a regional problem whose solution is of far greater importance to Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India and China than it is to the United States.
Take India for instance. Kashmir was an intractable problem for India without a military or political solution. (And this is not to deny Indian mis-steps and heavy-handedness on the issue, nor to debate whether the region should be independent.) Even in rare instances where India seemed willing to discuss Kashmir with Kashmiri leaders and with Pakistan, the solutions would fall through. No moderate leader would ever survive the background threat of assassination by Jihadists.
Russia has an even more brutal history in Chechnya, and China has an Uighur problem where it seems set to follow Russia's footsteps.
No nation in the region would really benefit from an American withdrawal followed by the collapse of the Karzai government and the resurgence of the Taliban (with Pakistan's tacit approval, perhaps.)
Inevitably, one or another regional power would have to intervene, but acting alone, would be doomed to failure.
I wonder why the obvious third way is not implemented. Create a new regional conference with China, Russia, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Iran and the NATO, and get this group to work together towards a solution for Afghanistan.
You would think that India and China would care more to have more troops in Afghanistan than Canada and Germany!