Yesterday I speculated that there may be a method to the madness of Republicans purging their non-extremists. It's only speculation, but if Republican leaders believe they are likely to remain the minority party for awhile, winning or losing a House seat here or there doesn't change their policy-making influence; they remain a slightly larger or smaller minority. Their best chance to influence policy lies in trying to limit the national policy debate, and their best chance to do that is to be unified in extreme conservatism.
That doesn't mean the sky is falling, despite what the BPI Janitor Professor of Astrology saw in this week's Kossascopes. There are counter-strategies progressive Democrats can employ. But they probably won't work by this weekend.
More below the fold....
Moving the Debate
This week Morning Feature explores a possible method in the seeming madness of the Republican Party purging its non-extremists, as happened in the special election in New York's 23rd District. Yesterday we speculated that Republicans may be employing a strategy based on a public relations concept known as the Overton Window. Simply put, if they expect to remain a minority party for a few election cycles regardless, winning or losing one or two House seats is irrelevant; they remain a slightly larger or smaller minority with no real ability to block legislation in the House. So long as the mainstream political media treat the Republican Party as "mainstream" by virtue of being one of the two main political parties, Republicans get more policy influence by appearing united in their extreme conservatism.
That sets the right side of the Overton Window as far right as possible. And while the Overton Window is not a fixed width, neither is it infinitely wide. With its right side anchored in extreme conservatism, made to seem Acceptable by virtue of unanimous GOP support, even modestly progressive policies will seem Radical, and more progressive ideas remain Unthinkable. If successful, this strategy acts as a ratchet - h/t to Gooserock for the metaphor - limiting how progressive Democrats can be while the majority party.
That may sound as if the GOP still control the agenda, even as a minority party, but that's an over-reading. The Democrats do have and are already employing some effective counter-strategies.
The importance of events.
While I recognize the logic of the Overton Window, I think it has too often been oversold. I'm among those who believe events drive politics more than pundits do. When events are mostly neutral - neither very bad nor very good - narrative strategies like the Overton Window can seem paramount. But very bad events can destroy a narrative very quickly, and very good events can make a negative counter-narrative look silly. The Bush administration lost control of the national debate not by a failure of spin, but by failures of policy, most notably their horrible response to Hurricane Katrina. No amount of spin could change the awful reality of what happened in New Orleans, or how ineffective the federal preparation and response had been. The explosion of civil war in Iraq the following spring simply hammered home the lesson: the Bush administration and by extension the Republican Party could not govern well.
The first and most important counter-strategy that Democrats must use against conservative extremism is governing well. President Obama and Democrats in Congress must enact policies that help real people with real needs, and policies that make good events more likely and bad events less likely and/or more manageable. While no set of policies guarantees good events or prevents every bad event, good policies "nudge the odds" toward better events and better responses to bad events. If President Obama and the Democrats fail to govern well, no narrative strategy can rescue that failure, and Republicans - however extreme they sound now - will seem like a better alternative to enough voters that the GOP will return to power. But if President Obama and the Democrats do govern well, narrative strategies can amplify the successes and make more progressive policies more possible.
Narrative defense ... and offense.
Narrative defense means portraying conservative extremism for what it is: an extreme fringe. One part of the defensive strategy has already begun, with White House statements highlighting the conservative extremist bias on Fox News and talk radio. MSNBC's Keith Olbermann has offered another important defensive strategy, by rejecting the "Republican vs. Democrat" model for presenting the political dialogue. Olbermann has few Republican guests, relying instead on journalists and academic experts to describe and rebut conservative extremist positions. His "Worst Persons in the World," now reinforced by colleagues Ed Schultz and Rachel Maddow with their "PsychoTalk" and "In Re:" segments, expressly reject the idea that "most Republican leaders agree" means "mainstream." They correctly paint the fringe as what it is: a fringe.
But narrative defense is not enough. We progressives also need to play narrative offense, by getting some Unthinkably Progressive policy ideas into the mainstream political debate. And we've been doing that, to some extent. Michael Moore's film SiCKO is one example. That film moved the debate on health care, and while the reforms now being debated in Washington are not as progressive as what Moore advocated in his film, I believe we'd have nowhere near the popular support for government-run public option had Moore's film not moved the debate.
This is a classic example of the Overton Window strategy: the Unthinkable (British-style nationalization or Canadian-style single-payer) making the Radical (a government-run public option) more Acceptable by comparison. But that is a slow-acting strategy. The initial groundwork was laid for it in 1993, when President Clinton's attempt at health care reform was seen as Unthinkable. Moore's film, reinforced by tireless advocacy from progressives and then by the calm (for some too-calm) advocacy of a newly-elected president, moved the formerly Unthinkable from Radical through Acceptable and Sensible to Popular, with 60% of Americans now backing a government-run public option despite the industry-funded August mayhem. There's still work to be done before it becomes Policy, given the makeup of the 2009 Senate, but we are closer than we've ever been.
An important caveat.
The health care reform example above also highlights an important and often overlooked caveat to the Overton Window approach: narrative strategies are slow-acting, taking years or decades to enable policy change. They are not as useful, and can even be counterproductive, when trying to solve a problem the public perceive as urgent and requiring immediate action. In that setting, proposing the Unthinkable is often a recipe for getting nothing at all. The proposal may die without debate as happened in 1993, or the Unthinkable may be put into the bill as a "poisoned pill" to ensure its failure.
Either way, the public perception is of ideological extremism failing to solve an urgent problem, violating the most important maxim in moving the debate while the majority party: we must govern well. Balancing that imperative against the need for progressive narrative strategies is a political judgment call open to reasoned criticism, and we progressives can and should be critical of our leaders. But we must also be realistic and remember that Democrats governing well is the sine qua non of progressive policy success. We sure won't see any under Republicans.
Tomorrow we'll explore some Unthinkably Progressive policy ideas we can offer to help move the debate over the coming years.
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Of course you can't debate with the stars, as they're just giant balls of flaming gas. Kinda like conservative extremists, come to think of it, and that may explain the Kossascopes:
Scorpio - Before you try to move that window, you might try to clean it.
Sagittarius - Your windows, by contrast, are spotless. So we can see you.
Capricorn - Debate and "yell until the other person gives up" are not synonyms. Just sayin'.
Aquarius - Some Unthinkable ideas will never seem Sensible. Eel-flavored ice cream is one.
Pisces - Your Unthinkable ideas sound more Sensible after a few drinks.
Aries - Yes, we remember when you were Radical. Yes, the music was better then.
Taurus - Don't worry about too much about being Popular, or growing wings.
Gemini - Oh, now that Unthinkable idea sounds Sensible. Tonight, by the lake?
Cancer - No, you can't come to the lake too. That would be Radical.
Leo - There are Sensible shoes, but those Unthinkable ones look so good on you.
Virgo - Your Overton Window has sixteen numbered panes. And yours came that way.
Libra - Pulling the shade on that window for a nice nap sounds good. Want company?
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Happy Friday!