In a poll of registered voters, Public Policy Polling looked into voter preference in the 2010 midterm elections, plus their views on health care reform and gays in the military. In the first set of solid data I've seen, the overwhelming amount of opposition to Obama, health care, and gays in the military comes from voters who will NOT consider voting for a Democrat this November.
Congressional Democrats really need to decide if they're going to let their agenda be dictated by voters who won't support them no matter what they do. These numbers provide pretty clear evidence that most of the voters opposed to health care and repeal of DADT will not consider voting Democratic even if the party decides not to move on those issues.
The numbers (PDF) suggest that Democrats can deliver on these progressive legislative issues without alienating persuadable voters.
The electoral landscape surveyed by PPP shows 34% definitely voting Democratic in the midterm elections, 37% definitely not voting Democratic, and 24% who will consider voting Democratic.
PPP found that the combination of voters definitely voting Democratic or considering voting Democratic in the November elections support health care reform by a 64/22 margin. This group of voters also supports allowing gays and lesbians to serve openly in the military by an even wider 72/24 margin.
The persuadable voters are still split on health care reform, but a whopping 15% still haven't formed an opinion on health care reform! The President's health care summit is tailor-made for appealing to these voters. These findings dovetail nicely with my analysis of the recent WaPo/ABC New Poll:
[W]e have an electorate that really wants comprehensive health care reform and will hold the Democrats responsible if it doesn't pass, but won't cut Congressional Republicans any slack for being obstructionists on legislation the American people want.
The health care summit is an opportunity to show persuadable voters the what the Democrats are offering is a common sense approach to comprehensive reform. It should further highlight the absolute lack of any solutions on the Republican side.
The enthusiasm gap that Democrats have seen in poll after poll is a reflection of not passing health care and not meeting their agenda promises, like the repeal of DADT. Here is the chance for Congressional Democrats to energize their base with little risk of alienating independents.
If Congressional Democrats can get out of their own way and just be Democrats, they will be rewarded come November. These poll numbers show that there is precious little downside to passing these issues.
You can use Organizing for America's handy tools to tell your representatives that you want our progressive agenda passed. This is the clear electoral path for the midterm elections.
You can:
Call Congress
Email your representative
Write a letter to the editor
to voice your support.
Or you can pledge your time to Democrats who help pass health care reform.