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Another weekend edition scuttled by the annoyances of glitches and unforeseen circumstances. But, on the positive side, all that means is that there is just that much more to love in the Monday edition of the Wrap...


CA-Sen: PPIC Poll Confirms Boxer In Fight of Her Career
Third-term Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her career politically, according to a poll released late last week by the Public Policy Institute of California. Former Congressman Tom Campbell actually holds a narrow lead over Boxer (44-43) in the poll, while Carly Fiorina trails Boxer by the same one-point margin (44-43). Boxer still holds a more sizeable lead over conservative insurgent candidate Chuck DeVore (46-40). Interestingly, Fiorina has moved back into the GOP primary lead in this poll, while DeVore still languishes far behind both Fiorina and Campbell. DeVore, as it turned out, had a pretty lousy day. It turns out that he had a tangential connection to the day's favorite story (the $1900 strip club expense for the RNC). The campaign consultant who sought reimbursement from the RNC turned out to have some past business dealings with DeVore. DeVore's campaign said they severed ties with the consultant's firm before the controversy erupted and (no shit!) they will not resume a business relationship with the firm.

FL-Sen: Republican Domination, and a Crist Comeback
A poll out last week by Mason Dixon in the Sunshine State of Florida shows that Florida Governor Charlie Crist might be forging a comeback, contrary to all other polling in the state. The crew at M-D has Crist trailing Marco Rubio by just eleven points (48-37) in the GOP primary. Crist also was the more electable of the two Republicans against Kendrick Meek, doubling up the Democrat (50-26) while Marco Rubio led by roughly half of that margin (44-29).

NY-Sen: GOP's Only Hope Against Gillibrand An Undeclared Pataki
The GOP, much like in Wisconsin, is hedging all of their hopes on an undeclared candidate in New York, according to a new Marist poll. Former Governor George Pataki is the only Republican even in the same area code as incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Pataki and Gillibrand are locked in a toss-up (47-45 Pataki). Among the trio of Republicans who have actually committed to the race, Gillibrand wins in blowouts ranging from 27-29 points. Also, for what it's worth (which is little), Zogby Interactive rears its ugly head, and gives Gillibrand a solid lead over Pataki.


GA-09: What's The Deal With Special Election Change?
The special election to replace outgoing (and newly scandalized--as you will read below) Republican Rep. Nathan Deal has been delayed for a couple of weeks, courtesy of a decision made late last week by Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue. The new date will be May 11th. The qualifying period for that race began today, and will run through Wednesday. Democrats can probably write this district off, as it is one of the most Republican districts in America (McCain won here 75-24).

ID-01/IL-11/FL-22: Sarah Palin Anoints Trio Of House Candidates
Three Republicans in competitive races have accepted the acclaim of one of the more polarizing figures in American politics. Sarah Palin endorsed a trio of veterans in their Congressional bids. They are: Vaughn Ward (ID-01), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), and Allan West (FL-22). Cozying up to Palin might work in deep-red Idaho, but one has to wonder what the percentage is in cuddling up to Palin in districts where John McCain scored 48% or less of the vote (IL-11/FL-22).

SC-05: Another Rumored Democratic Retirement Falls By Wayside
Any Democrats nervous about longtime Democratic Rep. John Spratt abandoning a red-leaning Dem district can officially relax: Spratt filed for re-election today. Spratt, in his late sixties, had been one of the Democrats the GOP identified as a potential target for retirement. Spratt faces a serious challenger in 2010 in the person of state Senator Mick Mulvaney, but it is worth noting that Spratt easily rebuffed a serious challenger (Ralph Norman) in 2006, winning 57% of the vote.


CA-Gov: PPIC Finds Whitman's Millions Paying Off In Gov Race
The same PPIC poll referenced above looked at the gubernatorial race, and found that Meg Whitman's obscene flinging of cash statewide has paid off, at least to some extent. The poll shows that Whitman has moved into a 44-41 lead over Democrat Jerry Brown. Brown still has a substantial lead over Republican Steve Poizner (46-31), which shows that the generic Democratic edge is still there, absent a candidate spending a half mil a day in order to flood the zone. One has to wonder, of course, about the theory of diminishing returns and how that will impact Whitman if she insists on the continuation of this strategy.

FL-Gov: McCollum Out To A Big Lead, According to Mason-Dixon
Is health care a liability for Democrats in Florida? That is a meme being pushed extremely hard by a poll released late last week by Mason Dixon, which has the reform getting crushed by the Sunshine State electorate. It also has presumed Republican nominee Bill McCollum crushing Democrat Alex Sink by a fifteen point margin (49-34). That is an even wider margin than Rasmussen (see the "Ras-a-palooza" below) recorded in their own poll last week.

GA-Gov: Deal Gubernatorial Bid Jeopardized By Ethical Morass
Adding some intrigue into what had been a fairly pedestrian Republican primary for Governor in the Peach State, Nathan Deal was dinged today by a report by the Office of Congressional Ethics. The O.C.E. released a report detailing ethical issues involving Deal's apparent use of his position as a member of Congress to keep alive a no-bid state contract that he and his business partners profitted from. It also dinged him for exceeding Congressional limits on outside earned income. Deal is beyond the reach of the Ethics Committee at this point, of course, having resigned from Congress over a week ago in order to focus on his gubernatorial bid.

NY-Gov: Same Ol' Same Ol'...Cuomo Has Huge Lead over GOP Hopefuls
Any Republican illusions that luring Steve Levy over to the GOP was going to be the silver bullet to reclaim the New York statehouse appears to be a tad optimistic. Marist polls the state again, and they find Cuomo over 60% against either nouveau Republican Steve Levy (65-26) or more conventional Republican Rick Lazio (61-30). The poll also shows that Levy, for all of the recruitment by certain corners of the NYGOP, gets splattered in a potential GOP primary, losing to Lazio by a 53-21 margin.


Man, even when the crew over at the House of Ras put out a poll that is, all in all, favorable to the Democrats, it still seems a I don't know that Dan Inouye would be up 40 points on Linda Lingle, and I certainly question whether little-known Doug Turner is the colossus of the New Mexico GOP gubernatorial field. That aside, the Ras is it's usual prolific self, with oodles of data between last Wednesday and today.

If the spirit of the Ras moves you, you can always check out their data at their website.

FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 47%, Alex Sink (D) 36%
HI-Gov: Neal Abercrombie (D) 54%, Duke Aiona (R) 31%
HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 50%, Duke Aiona (R) 29%
HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye (D) 65%, Gov. Linda Lingle (R) 25%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Doug Turner (R) 34%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 45%, Allan Weh (R) 35%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 52%, Peter Domenici Jr. (R) 35%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 51%, Susana Martinez (R) 32%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 52%, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 30%
ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven (R) 68%, Tracy Potter (D) 25%
ND-AL: Rick Berg (R) 51%, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 44%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 39%, Frank Caprio (D) 28%, John Robataille (R) 22%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%, John Robataille (R) 26%, Patrick Lynch (D) 22%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%, Chris Nelson (R) 42%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 46%, Kristi Noem (R) 35%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 45%, Blake Curd (R) 33%
TN-Gov: Bill Haslam (R) 46%, Kim McMillan (D) 26%
TN-Gov: Bill Haslam (R) 45%, Mike McWherter (D) 27%
TN-Gov: Ron Ramsey (R) 43%, Kim McMillan (D) 25%
TN-Gov: Ron Ramsey (R) 43%, Mike McWherter (D) 29%
TN-Gov: Zach Wamp (R) 42%, Kim McMillan (D) 29%
TN-Gov: Zach Wamp (R) 41%, Mike McWherter (D) 31%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 07:46 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I think it's time to use some of that newly-found (6+ / 0-)

    Dem enthusiasm to help Barbara Boxer. She has been great for California.

  •  California has a death wish. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrississippi, LordMike


    Jesus was a Socialist.

    by Bush Bites on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 07:51:15 PM PDT

    •  Dems may have a death wish (0+ / 0-)

      The working and middle-class in California are OverTaxed, and the Dems need to be aware of this.

      Both our nominees, for Senate but especially for Governor, must pledge that under no circumstances will he/she support a tax increase, OF ANY KIND, on any Household earning less than US$ 200K per year.

      I have nothing against unions.  I owe so much to unions.

      But the Dems can't continue increasing regressive taxes to fulfill union promises that should never have been made.

      Ten years ago, few cared about more taxation.

      Today, with median income stagnant for the last decade, our working and middle-class can't endure higher taxes.

      Perhaps it's time for the Dems to publicly support a steeply progressive wealth tax, hardly touching HHs with net worth under US$ 5M, but heavily taxing (on an annual basis) HHs with net worths over US$ 50M.

      It's either that, or revisit our commitment to our service unions.

      Just recall what happened to Corzine, when he raised the sales tax by 17%, to come through for the unions.

      Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

      by PatriciaVa on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:00:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Correct me if I'm wrong (0+ / 0-)

        But isn't it the very high State taxes that are the heart of the problem in CA?

        "I am not guilty, I am not ashamed and I am not finished." --Lt. Dan Choi, 3/19/10

        by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:09:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  CA can't raise some taxes (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tk421, Clarknt67, NM Ward Chair, juturna

        without a 2/3 majority vote in the legislature. That's one reason why we're in such a pickle.

        •  Villaraigosa: 37% Energy Rate Hike... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          NM Ward Chair

          ...over 4 years.

          He embodies our problems in California.

          DWP plans 37% rate hike over four years to cover cost increases

          The L.A. utility's managers unveiled the plan as the council's Energy and Environment Committee debated the mayor's proposal to boost rates to pay for renewable energy.

          March 26, 2010|By David Zahniser

          The Los Angeles Department of Water and Power is planning to boost the electricity bills of its customers by 37% over the next four years as part of its effort to cover steadily rising costs.

          2/3 majority or not, Californian working and middle-class are paying FAR too much to the government.

          And that's why we're not doing as well as we should be, in the bluest of blue states.

          If Corzine lost New Jersey, we can definitely lost California.

          Learn about Centrist Economics, learn about Robert Rubin's Hamilton Project.

          by PatriciaVa on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:16:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  We already lost CA to the terminator (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, NM Ward Chair

            We're trying to get it back.  Too many Californians have been too easily manipulated into voting for people and bills that work against them.

            I'm not saying it's right, but DWP will probably still have better rates than Edison.  And my cousin who's worked for a utility co. for over 20 years and collects a good paycheck plus excellent benefits probably won't have to worry about his job.

    •  The state seems to be going back to pre-Clinton (0+ / 0-)

      Back when it was pretty much a swing state and either party had a chance to win.  Same thing seems to be happening with New Jersey, unfortunately.  

  •  God spare us from Sen. Fiorina (7+ / 0-)

    The woman represents all that is wrong with American business.

  •  Whew! Surge Crist, surge. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SadTexan, LordMike, NM Ward Chair, tari

    Looks like the threat of him crossing over is past. Please mortally wound Rubio and leaving him limping through the general for Meek.

    There's no indication Pataki's running. His inclusion in the NY-Sen polling is starting to look silly.

    Pull it out Boxer, I'm sure she can. People usually default back to the incumbent when it comes down to it. They like the challenger better before they actually know much about them.

    "I am not guilty, I am not ashamed and I am not finished." --Lt. Dan Choi, 3/19/10

    by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 07:55:42 PM PDT

    •  Interesting about Crist (4+ / 0-)

      Could his relative strength represent some pushback from sane Republicans against the teabaggers?

      If so, my feelings would be mixed.  Not especially good news for us electorally, but probably healthy for democracy in the USA.

      •  Come on - we need a stable democracy (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        these type of teabagger movement ended up in the fascistic collapse of Europe following the Great Depression.

        Yes, we do have a vital interest in a sane Republican Party. Lets not play games with fire. This type of fire can consume all of us. Lets stand firm for a democratic America. And this includes a center right Republican Party.

      •  It's one poll, so it could be a fluke (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sdf, SadTexan, MKSinSA

        Not a sea change. They're (I'm presuming) not polling the SAME voters week to week, so I'm not sure if it's a change of mind??? Who can say? I guess some one local might have some insight, neither Rubio nor Crist seems to have said or done much to ping the national radar lately.

        Or maybe it's a backwax bump! Voters reject the hirsuit?

        "I am not guilty, I am not ashamed and I am not finished." --Lt. Dan Choi, 3/19/10

        by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:05:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Considering also that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SadTexan, Clarknt67

          the poll has radically different results in the Rubio vs. Meek matchup (44-29) than did either of the preceding polls (from PPP and R2K) that had Meek within 5 points or 1 point respectively.

          Suggesting not a surge but rather perhaps M-D has a different model here that favors Crist more vs. Rubio and then either Republican more vs. Meek.  Note also that this poll showed poor numbers for Obama personally and for attitudes toward the HCR bill.

          -- Stu

          •  Yeah, I noticed the Meek matchup was (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sdf, SadTexan

            markedly different, indicating, to me, a change in WHO was polled, more than a wholesale change in voter's attitude.

            "I am not guilty, I am not ashamed and I am not finished." --Lt. Dan Choi, 3/19/10

            by Scott Wooledge on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:26:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Meek Has Qualified By Petition (0+ / 0-)

              Kendrick Meek is the ONLY candidate EVER who has qualified by petition for the Senate race.

              The recent polls do NOT take into account the lack of name recognition that Mr. Meek has, a lack of recognition that has been fostered by the failure of so-called "Democratic" media support as in Kos.

              For those who seem to prefer a glitzy faux "Dem." leaning candidate like Crist instead of a hard working REAL Dem. like Meek, all I have to say is be careful what you wish for.

              Any Republican elected will "toe the line" of the party of NO.

    •  Pataki (0+ / 0-)

      Pataki would be 65 years old. While there are lots of mature senators, how common is it to be elected to a first term at that age?

      He seems to be doing OK physically, but it's tough work getting elected.

  •  In New Mexico (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    From what I can tell at this point, I would say that the reason the Republican field stacks up the way it does is purely the result of money spent on advertising combined with the delegate process.

    The statewide conventions were both held March 13.  The Democratic and Republican voters who vote in the primaries do so June 1.  

    Polling probably reflects TV commercials, billboards and name ID, especially on the Republican side.  None of the candidates so far seems to have established a real identity.

    Diane Denish has been a statewide figure for many years, including her recent 8 years as Lieutenant Governor.  She was very active.  Normally a Lt. Gov is a figure who most people are unaware of.  But she really put some effort into actually getting something done and showed some courage in doing so.  Thus, she is in a good position.

    However, the Republicans will probably revert to the old playbook, which is to just go negative.  They really don't have anything else.  

    hope that the idiots who have no constructive and creative solutions but only look to tear down will not win the day.

    by Stuart Heady on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 07:58:00 PM PDT

    •  Add the Dementia name recognition for Jr. (0+ / 0-)

      Junior won less than 5% at the pre-primary convention.  However, polled R's don't seem to know Junior from Pajama Pete himself.

      Turner has billboards up all over Albuquerque, which is probably a good move.  Allen "NO" Weh has been on teevee with an "I'm a war hero" bio ad.  He's also the former NMGOP chair, and therefore well known to party insiders, who gave him enough votes to qualify for the ballot, but still a distant second place.  Both Weh and Dementia, Jr. are gaffe machines.  

      Almost half of the Goop insiders seem to think largely unknown Las Cruces DA Susannah Martinez has the best chance to beat Lt. Gov. Diane Denish [Den' ish].  Janice Arnold-Jones also ran.

      The fact that rethug-loving Ras has Diane Denish over 50% is a great comfort.  Hopefully that means that the public does not link her too closely with toxic lame duck Bill Richardson.  It's too much to think they actually see her working.

      It's time for the Democratic leadership to continue to use the House and Senate rules to enact our agenda. HCR is just the start!

      by NM Ward Chair on Tue Mar 30, 2010 at 04:12:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yes - I believe in Crist comeback (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SadTexan, mariachi mama, Clarknt67

    I said it before and I say it again. Rubio is too crazy. Let him fight against medicare - good luck with this in Florida! I mean this is retirement country. If this does not scare the hell out of you - you are not paying attention.

    Plus, the tide is turning back towards a rational approach to solve our problems. And health care reform is a turning point. Lets arrest a few more militias, discover more sex bills in RNC's office - best would be more scandals in Rubio's office.

    And all this is good for Crist.

  •  Why is no one polling TX-GOV? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Last I saw Bill White had a shot at a possible win followed by radio silence. Is he seen as that far out of the game?

    Tea Party H8riots - that ain't America

    by MKSinSA on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:04:49 PM PDT

  •  Looks like we'll lose Bredesen's office. (0+ / 0-)


    They tortured people to get false confessions to fraudulently justify our invading Iraq.

    by Ponder Stibbons on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:05:26 PM PDT

  •  Boxer will win (6+ / 0-)

    Obama 1/10: "We don't quit. I don't quit."

    by Drdemocrat on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:06:11 PM PDT

  •  No fucking way Boxer loses. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Clarknt67, juturna, littlebird33

    Let those idiots spend a bunch of money trying.

  •  Looks like the Meed shall not (0+ / 0-)

    inherit the part of the earth that includes FL.

    But there may be a second coming of Crist.

  •  Why must I turn to people like Nathan Deal (0+ / 0-) find cosponsors of bills like the Birthright Citizenship Act of 2009? There is no diversity in viewpoints anymore. All but two of the cosponsors are Republicans and both of those are Blue Dogs. Now how am I supposed to support anyone who favors it?

    Polarization is so annoying.

    •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

      This newbie wants to repeal the 14th, deny education to undocumented children, only deport those who are unemployed and felonize illegal immigration.

      This user has only commented in immigration threads since their arrival here.


  •  I'm Not Worried About Barbra Boxer (5+ / 0-)

    She's been down this road before. She is going to WIN!!!

  •  Dems doing surprisingly well in Rasmussen polls (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    for HI and NM-GOV, I think. Lingle really only at 25% in a potential Senate match-up? And those are pretty big leads in the Governor's race considering Aiona is an incumbent Lt. Gov.

  •  Obama is fundraising for Boxer next month (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, littlebird33, KingofSpades

    I believe. Well, I think it's fundraiser for Boxer and DNC or one of the other campaign committees.

  •  Who is Al Ramirez (0+ / 0-)

    who is advertising here today?

  •  Save us from Zach Wamp (0+ / 0-)

    There is no more loathsome major politician in Tennessee than Zach Wamp. Ron Ramsey is a jerk too and will probably implode in a pique of contradictions. Haslam is not a bad guy. He's Mayor of Knoxville and has done a decent job. If we end up with Haslam as Governor I'll consider ourselves lucky. Of course, Kim McMillan would be ideal.

  •  Keep in mind that the PPIC CA-Sen poll (3+ / 0-)

    was conducted before the passage of the HIR bill and doesn't take into account the fact that the enthusiasm gap between the parties has narrowed significantly.

    Cold hearted orb/That rules the night/Removes the colours From our sight/Red is gray and/Yellow white/But we decide/Which is right/And/Which is an Illusion

    by KingofSpades on Mon Mar 29, 2010 at 08:35:50 PM PDT

  •  Never talk to a Rasmussen pollster (0+ / 0-)

    One called me I just hung up.
    I want them to be skewed to the right.

  •  GA-09 may not be the lock everyone assumes (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    NM Ward Chair

    There's numerous Republican candidates, one Democrat, Mike Freeman.

    Freeman's been doing well raising money and organizing. I believe he'll come out ahead in the special election, but we'll have to win the run-off.

    Run-off voting totals in a special election are very low. We have to get our vote out, but its not impossible.

    As to the change in dates, its supposedly to simply give more time to the candidates to run. Gov. Perdue and Sec. of State Handel I'm sure are watching out for their GOPers, but I'm actually glad for the extra time too.

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