Another weekend edition scuttled by the annoyances of glitches and unforeseen circumstances. But, on the positive side, all that means is that there is just that much more to love in the Monday edition of the Wrap...
CA-Sen: PPIC Poll Confirms Boxer In Fight of Her Career
Third-term Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is in the fight of her career politically, according to a poll released late last week by the Public Policy Institute of California. Former Congressman Tom Campbell actually holds a narrow lead over Boxer (44-43) in the poll, while Carly Fiorina trails Boxer by the same one-point margin (44-43). Boxer still holds a more sizeable lead over conservative insurgent candidate Chuck DeVore (46-40). Interestingly, Fiorina has moved back into the GOP primary lead in this poll, while DeVore still languishes far behind both Fiorina and Campbell. DeVore, as it turned out, had a pretty lousy day. It turns out that he had a tangential connection to the day's favorite story (the $1900 strip club expense for the RNC). The campaign consultant who sought reimbursement from the RNC turned out to have some past business dealings with DeVore. DeVore's campaign said they severed ties with the consultant's firm before the controversy erupted and (no shit!) they will not resume a business relationship with the firm.
FL-Sen: Republican Domination, and a Crist Comeback
A poll out last week by Mason Dixon in the Sunshine State of Florida shows that Florida Governor Charlie Crist might be forging a comeback, contrary to all other polling in the state. The crew at M-D has Crist trailing Marco Rubio by just eleven points (48-37) in the GOP primary. Crist also was the more electable of the two Republicans against Kendrick Meek, doubling up the Democrat (50-26) while Marco Rubio led by roughly half of that margin (44-29).
NY-Sen: GOP's Only Hope Against Gillibrand An Undeclared Pataki
The GOP, much like in Wisconsin, is hedging all of their hopes on an undeclared candidate in New York, according to a new Marist poll. Former Governor George Pataki is the only Republican even in the same area code as incumbent Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. Pataki and Gillibrand are locked in a toss-up (47-45 Pataki). Among the trio of Republicans who have actually committed to the race, Gillibrand wins in blowouts ranging from 27-29 points. Also, for what it's worth (which is little), Zogby Interactive rears its ugly head, and gives Gillibrand a solid lead over Pataki.
GA-09: What's The Deal With Special Election Change?
The special election to replace outgoing (and newly scandalized--as you will read below) Republican Rep. Nathan Deal has been delayed for a couple of weeks, courtesy of a decision made late last week by Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue. The new date will be May 11th. The qualifying period for that race began today, and will run through Wednesday. Democrats can probably write this district off, as it is one of the most Republican districts in America (McCain won here 75-24).
ID-01/IL-11/FL-22: Sarah Palin Anoints Trio Of House Candidates
Three Republicans in competitive races have accepted the acclaim of one of the more polarizing figures in American politics. Sarah Palin endorsed a trio of veterans in their Congressional bids. They are: Vaughn Ward (ID-01), Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), and Allan West (FL-22). Cozying up to Palin might work in deep-red Idaho, but one has to wonder what the percentage is in cuddling up to Palin in districts where John McCain scored 48% or less of the vote (IL-11/FL-22).
SC-05: Another Rumored Democratic Retirement Falls By Wayside
Any Democrats nervous about longtime Democratic Rep. John Spratt abandoning a red-leaning Dem district can officially relax: Spratt filed for re-election today. Spratt, in his late sixties, had been one of the Democrats the GOP identified as a potential target for retirement. Spratt faces a serious challenger in 2010 in the person of state Senator Mick Mulvaney, but it is worth noting that Spratt easily rebuffed a serious challenger (Ralph Norman) in 2006, winning 57% of the vote.
CA-Gov: PPIC Finds Whitman's Millions Paying Off In Gov Race
The same PPIC poll referenced above looked at the gubernatorial race, and found that Meg Whitman's obscene flinging of cash statewide has paid off, at least to some extent. The poll shows that Whitman has moved into a 44-41 lead over Democrat Jerry Brown. Brown still has a substantial lead over Republican Steve Poizner (46-31), which shows that the generic Democratic edge is still there, absent a candidate spending a half mil a day in order to flood the zone. One has to wonder, of course, about the theory of diminishing returns and how that will impact Whitman if she insists on the continuation of this strategy.
FL-Gov: McCollum Out To A Big Lead, According to Mason-Dixon
Is health care a liability for Democrats in Florida? That is a meme being pushed extremely hard by a poll released late last week by Mason Dixon, which has the reform getting crushed by the Sunshine State electorate. It also has presumed Republican nominee Bill McCollum crushing Democrat Alex Sink by a fifteen point margin (49-34). That is an even wider margin than Rasmussen (see the "Ras-a-palooza" below) recorded in their own poll last week.
GA-Gov: Deal Gubernatorial Bid Jeopardized By Ethical Morass
Adding some intrigue into what had been a fairly pedestrian Republican primary for Governor in the Peach State, Nathan Deal was dinged today by a report by the Office of Congressional Ethics. The O.C.E. released a report detailing ethical issues involving Deal's apparent use of his position as a member of Congress to keep alive a no-bid state contract that he and his business partners profitted from. It also dinged him for exceeding Congressional limits on outside earned income. Deal is beyond the reach of the Ethics Committee at this point, of course, having resigned from Congress over a week ago in order to focus on his gubernatorial bid.
NY-Gov: Same Ol' Same Ol'...Cuomo Has Huge Lead over GOP Hopefuls
Any Republican illusions that luring Steve Levy over to the GOP was going to be the silver bullet to reclaim the New York statehouse appears to be a tad optimistic. Marist polls the state again, and they find Cuomo over 60% against either nouveau Republican Steve Levy (65-26) or more conventional Republican Rick Lazio (61-30). The poll also shows that Levy, for all of the recruitment by certain corners of the NYGOP, gets splattered in a potential GOP primary, losing to Lazio by a 53-21 margin.
Man, even when the crew over at the House of Ras put out a poll that is, all in all, favorable to the Democrats, it still seems a little...well...off. I don't know that Dan Inouye would be up 40 points on Linda Lingle, and I certainly question whether little-known Doug Turner is the colossus of the New Mexico GOP gubernatorial field. That aside, the Ras is it's usual prolific self, with oodles of data between last Wednesday and today.
If the spirit of the Ras moves you, you can always check out their data at their website.
FL-Gov: Bill McCollum (R) 47%, Alex Sink (D) 36%
HI-Gov: Neal Abercrombie (D) 54%, Duke Aiona (R) 31%
HI-Gov: Mufi Hannemann (D) 50%, Duke Aiona (R) 29%
HI-Sen: Sen. Dan Inouye (D) 65%, Gov. Linda Lingle (R) 25%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Doug Turner (R) 34%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 45%, Allan Weh (R) 35%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 52%, Peter Domenici Jr. (R) 35%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 51%, Susana Martinez (R) 32%
NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 52%, Janice Arnold-Jones (R) 30%
ND-Sen: Gov. John Hoeven (R) 68%, Tracy Potter (D) 25%
ND-AL: Rick Berg (R) 51%, Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) 44%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 39%, Frank Caprio (D) 28%, John Robataille (R) 22%
RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%, John Robataille (R) 26%, Patrick Lynch (D) 22%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 44%, Chris Nelson (R) 42%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 46%, Kristi Noem (R) 35%
SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (D) 45%, Blake Curd (R) 33%
TN-Gov: Bill Haslam (R) 46%, Kim McMillan (D) 26%
TN-Gov: Bill Haslam (R) 45%, Mike McWherter (D) 27%
TN-Gov: Ron Ramsey (R) 43%, Kim McMillan (D) 25%
TN-Gov: Ron Ramsey (R) 43%, Mike McWherter (D) 29%
TN-Gov: Zach Wamp (R) 42%, Kim McMillan (D) 29%
TN-Gov: Zach Wamp (R) 41%, Mike McWherter (D) 31%