For months we’ve been hearing about teabagger anger, the "enthusiasm gap" between highly motivated republican voters and complacent Democrats. The media has told us ad nauseum that there would be a tsunami of conservative voters going to the polls this year and that Democrats may lose their majorities in the House and/or the Senate if they can’t motivate their base.
But a funny thing happened at the polls yesterday in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Arkansas and Oregon...
This morning’s headlines are dominated by Pennsylvania Democrat Joe Sestak ending Democrat-of-Convenience Arlen Specter’s lifetime appointment to the Senate; by Kentucky teabagger Rand Paul rocking the political universe by winning the republican nomination for an open Senate seat; and by Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln ending up in a runoff with Bill Halter because she’s so incompetent that she forgot how to vote.
What has been underreported in this morning’s news has been the voter turnout, which, contrary to this year’s conventional MSM wisdom, heavily favored Democrats.
Let’s look at some numbers, shall we?
Pennsylvania Senate
According to Politico.com, over one million voters who voted in Pennsylvania’s senate primaries yesterday voted for Democrats, accounting for 56% of all voters.
Democrats (99.2% of precincts reporting) – 1,046,010
republicans (99%) – 818,845
Of course, this was a very high profile national race. Naturally, Democrats would turn out in droves to support Joe Sestak or Arlen Specter. This doesn’t really mean anything, right?
Right?
PA-12
Yesterday’s real political earthquake, IMHO, took place in the southwest corner of the state in Pennsylvania’s 12th congressional district. Sadly, but not surprisingly, this has been relegated to near-footnote status in most of the reports I’ve read today. This was the seat formerly held by the late John Murtha and was the only special election in the country yesterday.
By every account I've seen, this is a pretty conservative district and conservatives had high hopes for a victory here. The April 28 DK/R2K Poll had republican Tim Burns ("Your company's computer guy!") ahead of Democrat Mark Critz by six points, 46% to 40%. I'm sure republicans were chilling the champagne in anticipation of another obnoxious victory over the demon liberal horde!
But a couple of weeks later, Public Policy Polling said that the race was a statistical tie, with Tim Burns (BTW, I'm well aware that Nick Burns is your company's computer guy. Please hold your comments.) up by a single point, 48% to 47%.
In the end, Mark Critz annihilated Nick...er, Tim Burns (MOVE!!!) in a humiliating defeat, with Critz receiving 71.5% of the Democratic vote and Burns getting 57% of the republican vote.
63.8% of voters voted for a Democrat.
Democrats (100%) - 80,997
republicans (100%) - 45,910
It's funny that nobody in the media has much to say about this one, don't you think?
As Something the Dog Said observed earlier today, this makes republicans 1 and 7 in special elections since the 111th Congress convened. Not a great record.
If this is an example of the "conservative tsunami", republican voters expecting to "Ride the Big One" should leave their surfboards at home and maybe stock up on KY Jelly instead.
Arkansas Senate
71.8% of voters in Arkansas yesterday voted for a Democrat (I use the term "Democrat" very loosely in the case of Blanche Lincoln, but you know what I mean.)
Democrats (98.9%) – 326,216
republicans (98.9%) – 128,068
Kentucky Senate
I love this one. The media are shouting from the rooftops about teabagger Rand Paul soaking republican candidate Trey Grayson, thus rocking the Washington establishment to it's very core...even though there is no incumbent in the race.
What's being underreported is not only the fact that 59.6% of voters in Kentucky yesterday voted for a Democrat...
Democrats (99.5%) – 514,173
republicans (99.5%) – 347,936
...but that Dan Mongiardo, the Democratic candidate who finshed SECOND to nominee Jack Conway, actually received over 15,000 more votes than Rand Paul!
Don't put Kentucky in the red column just yet.
Oregon Senate
It's tough to compare voter turnout in this race, since there's a nine point difference between Democrats and republicans in precincts reporting, but but here's what we know as of this writing:
Democrats (88.5%) – 329,189
republicans (79.5%) – 205,984
Democrats again appear to have turned out in numbers for this race.
The Moral of the Story, Boys and Girls...
If yesterday is any indication, I don't think things aren't nearly as bad for Democrats as we are being led to believe by the media. Our ground game looked pretty good. Democrats were motivated to go out and vote. If I were a republican I would be VERY concerned about everything that transpired.
Still, we need to keep working. We need to keep pushing. I, for one, am eager to spoil the wet dreams of the teabagging crowd on November 2.
UPDATE: Let me just say that this diary is not intended to be some kind of comprehensive statistical breakdown. I admit it's pretty crude and doesn't take into account open and closed primaries, historical trends, voters crossing the aisle in November, etc. However, I do view these numbers as a positive sign for Democrats in that it is a rough indication that Democratic voter apathy this year may be a myth that's being perpetuated by the media, much like all the "PUMA" nonsense was during the 2008 election.