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It started yesterday.  Lincoln thinks she's getting out the early vote; time will tell, I suppose. Everybody knows primary turnout is dismal enough, primary runoff turnout even more so.  The good news is that Halter currently leads Lincoln by three points in polling.  The even better news is that she actually acknowledges the possibility of defeat:

Lincoln insists that she’s the candidate most prepared to stand up for her state, saying: "I’d rather lose this election fighting for what’s right than win by turning my back on Arkansas."

"I know you’re angry at Washington," Lincoln says, alluding to her disappointing performance in the first round of primary voting last month. "Believe me, I heard you on May 18."

The ad comes just days after a Research 2000 poll, commissioned by the Halter-backing website Daily Kos, showed Lincoln’s challenger 3 percentage points ahead in a head-to-head matchup against the senator, leading 47 percent to 44 percent.

So, let's send Lincoln home from D.C. once and for all by making a strong final push for Bill Halter this week; the primary is on June 8th.  But he's not the only one who needs our support right now.

Also on June 8th, kossack Roxanne Conlin will be having her primary in Iowa and there is nothing but good news there!  She currently leads in polling among the four contenders by a margin of 35%, or as PPP put it, "Roxanne Conlin appears headed for a romp."  Given that she only needs 35% in the primary and her favorability is untouchable, I'd say they're right.

More than 70% of likely Democratic primary voters have no opinion of Krause or Fiegen, and of those who do, they are both in negative territory, Fiegen at 12-16 and Krause at 11-18. Conlin, meanwhile, posts a strong 38-15 favorability mark.

Swing State Project has a lot more info here, with additional analysis about the race and fundraising numbers.  Especially interesting about Conlin's war chest is that 78% of her donations are under $100 and she has received no lobbyist or PAC funding.  Wonderful though that is, it means Grassley has a COH advantage.  A kind of big one, truth be told, but that is where we come in -- giving Conlin a strong push to carry her through this week along with Halter.

We can also take comfort in the fact that Grassley just isn't feeling the Iowa love.  Say it with me, everybody:  Awwwww.  Not only has he dropped below 50% in polling, but he's also garnering some pretty interesting letters to the editor over his Wall Street reform vote.

Grassley's vote was also surprising since he had 800,000 reasons to vote against Wall Street reform.

That is the amount of dollars that Wall Street and associated industries affected by this bill have given to Grassley so far this year.

...It was predictable that Sen. Chuck Grassley would suddenly skew in favor of work-a-day Iowans. After all, he's up for re-election in November.

Just so we would know, he finally supported Wall Street reform after he voted five times to block the bill (S. 3217) from moving forward.

Ha!  Apparently, he's fantastic with constituent relations; I think he's going to need it.

Last but not least, we have Elaine Marshall in another runoff contest with Cal Cunningham on June 22nd.  She beat him with a 17-point margin in the original primary, but couldn't break 50% due to the crowded field.  And Cal has insisted on the runoff.  He managed to raise more than she has since the first primary, but Marshall will win again, especially given the fundraising details.  They're pretty interesting.  Cunningham has the backing of DSCC, so he has received 5% of his donations; for Marshall, it's 1%.  And then there's this:  

Forty-three percent of her campaign donations came from people who gave less than $1,000, compared with 26 percent for Cunningham. Cunningham has tended to raise more from larger donations. Eighteen percent of Cunningham's donations came from individuals who gave $4,000 or more, compared with 4 percent for Marshall.

That's what we like to hear!  Burr has more money than either Dem candidate, but he's Burr, so...

What say we spend this next week kicking arse with phonebanking for Halter and Conlin and Marshall to get them through their home stretches.  Let's go get ourselves the Senate we deserve!  

Originally posted to Cedwyn on Wed Jun 02, 2010 at 04:20 AM PDT.

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