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Some GREAT news to share with the list about Openly LGBT Congressional candidate Ed Potosnak.

Here is a poll they just got back a poll last night that shows that his message is working and his opponent is in major trouble. A whopping 46% of people in NJ- 7 want Leonard Lance out of office, and it's not just Democrats, but also Republicans and Independents who are dissatisfied with Leonard Lance's "Washington insider" approach to representing his constituents.

The team they have put in place has put the campaign within striking distance for this November.  When voters learn more about Ed, and how he wants to get the job done is Washington, he already is coming within 4% of defeating Leonard Lance after the poll questions!  (Lance 47-Potosnak 43).

The most stunning news to me is that only 31% of respondents think that Leonard Lance should keep his job.  This tells me, that after already spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and barely winning his Republican Primary, Lance is ripe to be taken out.  This race is quickly shaping up to be one of the best chances to pick up a Democratic seat as well as add another LGBT candidate to Congress.  

You can learn more at

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________ ____

Below is the poll memo

1724 Connecticut Aven ue, N.W.
Was hingto n, DC 20009
Tel : (202 ) 234- 5570
Fax : (202 ) 232- 8134

TO: Ed Potosnak for Congress
FROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
DATE: June 28, 2010
RE: Recent NJ-7th CD Survey Results

Between June 23 and 24, 2010, the Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a
survey among 400 likely voters in New Jersey's 7th congressional district. This
survey, which has a margin of error of +5%, is fully representative of the 7th CD's
demographics, including partisanship. For example, there are slightly MORE
registered Republicans in our sample, and in terms of party self-identification, there
is a net GOP advantage of 38% Republican and 35% Democrat.

Even with the Republican-leaning nature of this district, the survey data yields two
encouraging findings: (A) Congressman Lance, as evidenced by his unimpressive
55% showing in the June 8th GOP primary, is not immune to the national antiincumbent
trend, and (B) Ed Potosnak has the potential to run an extremely
competitive campaign against the incumbent.

We asked a broad survey question to measure the electorate's temperature on this
year's congressional elections without naming the actual candidates. We found that
7th CD voters prefer electing "new people" over reelecting "current members of
Congress" by nearly three to one (55% to 19%). What's ironic is that it is Lance
voters who are the MOST pre-disposed to electing new people, by a nearly six to
one margin.

On EVERY single measurement of an incumbent's standing, Congressman Lance is
well-below the critical 50% threshold. For example, just 31% of 7th CD voters
would like to see Leonard Lance reelected to Congress, while a 46% plurality think
it is time to make a change and elect someone else.

The overall 31% "reelect" is a low number for Lance, but what is notable is his poor
showing among Independents (24% reelect, 47% make a change) and even among
Republicans (43% reelect, 39% make a change).

Thus, it is not surprising that the initial trial heat standings show Lance with an
unimpressive lead despite the fact that Ed Potosnak is virtually unknown to 7th CD
voters (12% name recognition). Currently, Leonard Lance holds 43% of the vote,
Ed Potosnak garners 30%, and 27% are undecided.

Congressman Lance's current advantage, albeit with the incumbent's support below
the 50% threshold with considerable softness (just 43% of Lance voters are firmly
committed to their candidate), is almost purely a result of his commanding name
recognition advantage.

In fact, when we present equal and positive descriptions of BOTH candidates, the
challenger makes up significant ground. For LEONARD LANCE, he was described as
having been assistant counsel to former Governor Tom Kean, and in his first term
in Congress as having fought for fiscal responsibility and a strong advocate for
environmental protection. For ED POTOSNAK, he was described as a Rutgers
graduate who became a scientist and teacher and started his own small business,
and who has the real-world experience.

After these descriptions, the INFORMED trial heat standings show the challenger
pulling into a competitive position: 47% Lance, 43% Potosnak, 10% undecided.
The strong appeal of Ed Potosnak's non-politician profile in an anti-incumbent year
is borne out by Potosnak's 49% to 40% lead among Independents, and by his
three-to-one lead among undecided voters.

Finally, the fluid nature of this electorate AND Congressman Lance's vulnerability is
evidenced by the final trial heat, which we asked after we presented criticisms of
BOTH candidates. In this trial heat, Lance drops to 38% support, while Ed
Potosnak climbs to 48%. While we do not purport this is "real-life," it is
nonetheless notable that 7th CD voter preferences change from a 13-point Lance
lead at the beginning to a 10-point Potosnak advantage at the end, which is a
significant amount of movement in a relatively short amount of time.
While the 7th CD electorate has a strong bias against incumbents, we do not
underestimate Congressman Lance's campaign skills that he has picked up in his
nearly two decades in politics. However, we believe the overall political dynamics
of 2010 make Ed Potosnak a credible and attractive challenger who has the
potential to run a competitive and winnable campaign.

Originally posted to TheDeminator on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 11:05 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So where is this CD? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    NJ-7..what does it cover?

    •  It's one of those spidery districts... (0+ / 0-)

      ...including bits of Hunterdon, Somerset, Middlesex and Union counties.

      Here's the voting history since the last redistricting:

      2002 General
      Mike Ferguson [R] 106,055 58.0%
      Tim Carden [D]         74,879 40.9%
      Darren Young [LIB]  2,068  1.1%

      2004 General
      Mike Ferguson [R] 162,597 56.9%
      Steve Brozak [D] 119,081 41.7%
      Thomas Abrams [LIB]  2,153  0.8%
      Matthew Williams [I]          2,016  0.7%

      2006 General
      Mike Ferguson [R] 98,399 50.8%
      Linda Stender [D] 95,454 49.2%

      2008 General
      Leonard Lance [R] 148,461 50.2%
      Linda Stender [D] 124,818 42.3%
      Michael Hsing [I] 16,419  5.5%
      Dean Greco [I]          3,259  1.1%
      Thomas D. Abrams [I]          2,671  0.9%

      Sorry if the formatting is screwed up, I can't remember the tag for monospacing.  

    •  Here's a page with a Google Map. (0+ / 0-)

      New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District & Map

      I grew up in this district in the western part. In fact, I went to grade school with Leanard Lance. I was two years ahead of him and frankly don't remember much interaction with him. He father was a successful local politician as well. He has a twin brother and they were often wearing shorts (knickers?) in the summer ala Angus Young in AC/DC. They seemed so fragile and didn't mix it up much with many kids, iirc.

      Have you tried getting EXCELLENT lately?

      by kafkananda on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 02:08:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is there a link to this poll... (0+ / 0-)

    ...with cross tabs?

    I'd be interested in the personal pos/neg numbers on the two candidates.

    It has the makings of a nasty campaign, doesn't it?

    Sure would be nice to see Lance go away...

    It ain't called paranoia - when they're really out to get you. 6 points.

    by Jaime Frontero on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 11:41:29 AM PDT

  •  My District..... (0+ / 0-)

    Would be great....but don't hold your breath.  It's been R for many years.  Best chance for pick-up was when the seat was open.  Lance won.

  •  Tea Partiers are celebrating (0+ / 0-)

    The TNuts will pop champagne if Lance goes down.  They hate his guts because of his support for Cap & Trade.  He only got 55% of the vote in the primary.

    Alot of his negative poll numbers come from disaffected TNuts and reactionaries.  The question is will they swallow their pride, hold their noses, and vote for him in November.

  •  Will LGBT hurt Potosnak? (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know much about Potosnak.  He seems impressive.  But the western part of the district is about as reactionary as you can get and the reason Lance had a rough primary.  As of now many of these teabagging TNuts wouldn't vote for Lance if he dressed up like George Washington, waved his sword and single-handedly attacked the White House.

    However, there is also a great deal of prejudice against LGBT in that district.  Their State Senator proposed a bill to require parental notification of school trips to the state capitol advising that children may be exposed or harassed as a result of the state's policy against LGBT discrimination.  Lance himself was accused of being gay on some rightwing blogposts.

    The question then becomes whether as Potosnak's orientation becomes known, will TNut prejudice against LGBT overcome their resentment against Lance, especially in a close race.

  •  Leonard Lance is my congressman. (0+ / 0-)

    A nice guy, personally, with odd politics.   A throwback to the Millicent Fenwick type of Somerset/Hunterdon GOP'er - socially progressive, conservative in all other areas.  

    Follows Rodney Freylighuysen's lead on most votes, except climate change, which he still regrets, as that made his primary victory margin slimmer than desired.  

    God Bless Potosnak, but I don't see an openly gay (he can't be LGB and T - if he is, that would be remarkable!) candidate knocking him off this cycle, especially given the current mood here in NJ.  Hope I am wrong, but I don't think so.

    Strength of character does not consist solely in having powerful feelings, but in maintaining one's balance in spite of them. - Clausewitz

    by SpamNunn on Wed Jun 30, 2010 at 12:34:33 PM PDT

    •  Lol (0+ / 0-)

      He's just a G, no BLT. But of course he will help all of them.
      It seems to me that as long as the conservatives are pissed off and don't show up for lance Potosnak has a good shot. Also maybe if he got the nyt endorsement instead of Lance, that could help.

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