BP's new well cap is in place and pressure tests have begun, with very appropriate caution. If the tests indicate that the well bore and casings have sufficient integrity to withstand the internal pressures of the well, there is a chance that the spigot may get turned off this week.
As wonderful as that news is, it will bring a chorus of sighs from the media, the government, the oil industry and well-meaning Gulf Coast residents, a chorus singing, "It's over!"
That chorus will echo throughout the mediasphere. And it will be dead wrong.
As conchita so eloquently put it in today's noontime ROV diary,
We cannot forget that when the oil stops flowing from the Macondo well, the crisis is not over. We must take vigilance and knowledge gained and turn it into action to ensure that this catastrophe does not repeat itself in the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere in another guise.
"Over." Finished. Finito. Done business.
Lord, how badly we want this to be over. And that deep, heartfelt desire could blind us to the reality that the impacts of this hell are going to be with us for a long time to come. How long? Nobody really knows.
This afternoon, I spoke with Dr. Earl Melancon, Distinguished Service Professor of Biological Sciences at Nicholls State University. Dr. Melancon is pretty much the go-to guy on oyster biology, and I've cited his expertise in the field of mollusk biology in these posts. Today, though, I asked him a broader question:
Based on current knowledge, if the flow of oil and dispersants were to stop today, how soon would you expect the Gulf to return to the levels of productivity and diversity seen before the well blowout?
Being an honest scientist, he gave the only answer he could: I don't know.
"I think in terms of oysters. It's unknown how much oil is out there and how fast it's being degraded. There are estimates of decades, estimates of five years. Everyone's going from both experiences and data and gut feeling based on experience. I've worked in the Gulf. I feel comfortable talking about oysters, but looking at the vastness of the Gulf, the variety of species, no honest scientist is going to say they know how long real restoration will take."
Asked specifically about oysters, Dr. Melancon was a bit more specific. "Starting from zero. If we had the ability to have the typical bimodal [fresh and salt water alternating] estuary environment, we could see oysters return to damaged beds within three years." He cautioned that such a prediction is based on "nothing happening," no further pollution, no more excessive freshwater diversions and "good recruitment," or immigration of spats, the mobile, juvenile oysters, while admitting that there is so far insufficient data to determine how dispersed oil is affecting oysters and the sediments they settle on.
"It's sure that, wherever there is dispersed oil, it's wrecking havoc on filter feeders, from menhaden to sharks to oysters."
As for the Gulf as a whole, its ability to weather this petrostorm, Melancon was more optimistic than I'd expected. "My gut feeling is that the temperatures in the Gulf will speed the healing The vastness of the ocean and the wetlands are a plus. These are advantages that Prince William Sound did not have."
Still, he admitted, the unknowns regarding the oil and dispersants' effects on the food web in the Gulf were too great to make meaningful predictions at this point.
As Matthew Brown and Ramit Plushnick-Masti reported today, those effects may be already coming to pass.
Near the spill site, researchers have documented a massive die-off of pyrosomes — cucumber-shaped, gelatinous organisms fed on by endangered sea turtles.
Along the coast, droplets of oil are being found inside the shells of young crabs that are a mainstay in the diet of fish, turtles and shorebirds.
And at the base of the food web, tiny organisms that consume oil and gas are proliferating.
If such impacts continue, the scientists warn of a grim reshuffling of sealife that could over time cascade through the ecosystem and imperil the region's multibillion-dollar fishing industry.
The report is notably cautious and cites scientists on both sides of the question of how deep the impact on the Gulf's food cycles has gotten. It's worthy of your time and eyes.
Beyond the merely biological, there are the social effects of the spill to consider. Much gratitude and respect to Keith Olbermann for bringing on Corey Hebert to discuss the ongoing psychological effects of the hell on fishers, restauranteurs, retailers and others in the region for whom the crisis is ongoing and open-ended, a surefire recipe for depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. Those ripples will continue long after a new riser or kill bore finally stops the flow of crude.
This afternoon, I asked Dr. Melancon what one thing he wished Americans would take away from this, what one lesson he hoped we might learn from this hell. His response was both reserved and wildly hopeful:
"I hope that this teaches people to learn from each other. The more people talk to each other and resolve differences, the better. Hopefully, this will bring everyone to the table."
In that spirit, I would suggest we shift the word we so long to hear to its context in radio protocol. When one wishes to indicate the end of a radio communication, the proper word to use is "Out." "Over" has an entirely different meaning, as in "over to you" or "awaiting your reply."
This conversation will go on for quite a while, ranging from biological science to economic theory to psychological and social studies. I join Dr. M in hoping that all will be heard, and allow others the same courtesy.