By now many of us know someone who knows Barack Obama is a Muslim. The latest Pew Research poll from last week found that only 34% of Americans say Obama is a Christian, while 18% say he is a Muslim and 45% are uncertain. Keep that number in mind - only 34% of Americans surveyed say Barack Obama is a Christian - i.e. live in a world of facts.
This brings me to a possible explanation for this phenomenon. There was a recent poll on a tangentally related matter. In this poll, coincidentally or not, only a similar 35% of Americans surveyed got the right answer. (I'll call the 34% vs. 35% difference a rounding error.)
What was the subject for this other poll?
Evolution.
In a recently released poll, Angus-Reid, a respected polling firm (originally from Canada, but now international in scope) conducted a poll on attitudes to evolution amongst Americans, Canadians and Brits. (pull pdf - here)
Now there have been quite a few polls on evolution over the years and they do get varying results. I was attracted to this poll because at least they got the question correct. Unlike many pollsters that ask "do you believe in evolution?" (note: evolution is not a "belief"), Angus Reid phrased the question is a more straight forward manner.
Q: Which of these statements comes closest to your own point of view regarding the origin and development of human beings on earth?
a) Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years
b) God created human beings in their present form within the last 10,000 years
c) Not sure
The results while not overly surprising are still interesting. We'll start with the overall findings. In Canada less than 1 in 4 chose option b) and in the UK less than 1 in 6. By contrast almost 1 of every 2 Americans surveyed answered b).
| USA | Canada | Britain |
a) Evolution | 35 | 61 | 68 |
b) God/10,000 | 47 | 24 | 16 |
c) Not sure | 18 | 15 | 15 |
Interesting isn't it! 35% of Americans surveyed said "Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years" AND 34% of Americans surveyed said Barack Obama is a Christian. Coincidence, I think not.
Of course this also highlights a huge problem for any rational being trying to affect change in the political realm. You have to start with the assumption that if you use facts only about 35% of the people are going to be able to follow what you are saying without having their heads explode. IF only 35% of people can agree with the above statement on evolution and only 34% that Obama is a Christian ... you know you have real problems.
Supplemental stuff:
For those interested in the evolution poll here are a couple of more cross tabs (there are more at the above link) that I found interesting. The first breakdown is by sex. What is scary here is that a majority (52%) of women go with option b), and they outnumber the a) responses almost 2 to 1. This is a crosstab that I do not remember seeing in other evolution polls.
| Overall | Male | Female |
a) Evolution | 35 | 43 | 28 |
b) God/10,000 | 47 | 42 | 52 |
c) Not sure | 18 | 15 | 20 |
Next up is the regional breakdown. I think the numbers speak for themselves. I was looking for a similar crosstab from any Obama is a ??? poll, but have not yet found one. It would make a nice comparison to test my thesis.
| Overall | Northeast | Midwest | South | West |
a) Evolution | 35 | 43 | 37 | 27 | 38 |
b) God/10,000 | 47 | 38 | 49 | 51 | 45 |
c) Not sure | 18 | 19 | 13 | 21 | 16 |