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On the last weekend of summer for a number of schoolchildren here on the West Coast (although mine get an additional one-week reprieve), we interrupt your back-to-school shopping to present the weekend edition of the Wrap...

THE U.S. SENATE

AK-Sen: Statistical analysis says absentees don't favor incumbent
Most of the attention in Alaska in the past 24 hours has been on the pie fight between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski over the whole prostitute tweet thing. However, lost in the shuffle was a marvelous bit of analysis by Jeffmd over at the Swing State Project. Looking back to voting patterns in 2008, he suggests that the absentee ballots are exceedingly unlikely to make up the margin for the incumbent.

AZ-Sen: Wait by your phone, Senator McCain
The backstory of what went on Tuesday night in Arizona is coming out, and it is simply priceless. Apparently, the aides for both Senator John McCain and former Congressman J.D. Hayworth exchanged contact numbers pre-primary, and team Hayworth even dialed the number on Monday to make sure it worked. As you might recall, it took only about an hour after the polls closed before the AP declared McCain the winner. So team McCain waited for the call. It never came. Indeed, days later, it still hasn't come. Anyone who has followed the history of J.D. Hayworth, however, will not be all that surprised. After all, he did the same thing to Democrat Harry Mitchell when he lost his race for Congress in 2006.

LA-Sen: Primary day on the Bayou
Louisiana's voters headed to the polls today, as the state is one of a small handful (Hawaii is another) that holds their primary elections on a Saturday, as opposed to the traditional Tuesday election day. Early voting turnout was pretty minimal (around 26,000 votes cast), leading Secretary of State Jay Dardenne to forecast a minimal turnout for this election. One of the reasons for the light turnout: zero competition at the top of the ballot. Both incumbent GOP Senator David Vitter and Democratic Senate candidate Charlie Melancon are supposed to sail through today's primaries, and in early returns both have wide leads.

NV-Sen: Reid clings to a small lead in (GOP tilting?) M-D poll
Jed Lewison offered awesome analysis of it yesterday, but for those that missed it: a new Mason Dixon poll has incumbent Democratic Senator Harry Reid up by a single point over Republican challenger Sharron Angle. Equally interesting, however, was a tweet on Friday from the hugely respected Nevada political journalist, Jon Ralston:

Based on what I am picking up from insiders, even GOPers think Mason-Dixon is off by a few points in GOP favor. Angle down more, Rory less.

(We'll get to Rory Reid's status in the M-D poll later. Suffice to say, he had better HOPE he is down by less)

WV-Sen: Another primary day (with a foregone conclusion)
A lot of casual political fans forgot that were actually two states heading to the polls today. They can be somewhat forgiven, however, since in this case, the trip to the ballot box was unscheduled. Voters in West Virginia picked their nominees for the special U.S. Senate election which will determine the successor to the late Democratic Senate icon, Robert Byrd. Turnout was fairly light, since as in Louisiana, the nominees are pretty well locked in. Governor Joe Manchin has won the primary for the Democrats, garnering 73% of the vote at last check. Meanwhile, businessman John Raese has locked down the GOP nomination, snagging 71% of the vote.

THE U.S. HOUSE

AR-03: GOP seat should stay GOP, according to Talk Business Poll
Talk Business (partnering with Hendrix College) had both Democratic open seats in Arkansas heading to the GOP. How about the sole GOP open seat, being vacated by Senate nominee (and, in all likelihood, future U.S. Senator) John Boozman? That one also shows a a double-digit lead for the Republicans, according to their latest poll. Republican Steve Womack, the mayor of Rogers, has a 24-point lead over Fayetteville Democrat David Whitaker (55-31).

CO-07: Magellan claims GOP lead against Dem incumbent
This one has a pair of caveats: Magellan is a Republican pollster, and they also use the questionable technique (PDF) of burying their trial heat question late in the survey (something the NCPP says can potentially bias results). That said, they claim that Republican challenger Ryan Frazier has a one-point lead over Democratic incumbent Ed Perlmutter (40-39).

LA-02/LA-03: Two competitive House primaries on tap today
While the Senate results might have seemed preordained, there are actually two House primaries in the Pelican State worth keeping an eye on tonight. One of the Democrats' most lucrative targets in 2010 is the heavily African-American 2nd district, where state legislators Cedric Richmond and Juan LaFonta lead a field of four Democratic candidates vying to make Republican Anh "Joseph" Cao a one-term oddity in this Democratic district. Meanwhile, to the South in the 3rd district, Charlie Melancon's Senate bid has opened up a very vulnerable open seat that the Democrats will have to defend. Ravi Sangisetty will be the Democratic standard bearer, while the GOP will pick today from a pair of legit candidates in former House Speaker Hunt Downer and wealthy attorney Jeff Landry.

MI-01/MI-03/MI-07: GOP pollster sees two pickups in Michigan
The prolific Republican pollsters at We Ask America are back at it again, this time in the Midwest. They polled three districts in Michigan, and see a pair of pickups for the GOP. One caveat that even they (to their credit) point out: these polls were conducted earlier in the month, one day after the Michigan primaries. Since all three Republicans had competitive primaries, while all three Democrats did not, that could easily bias the numbers a bit. At any rate, the pollster has Republicans taking the 1st district long held by Democrat Bart Stupak. They have Republican Don Benishek at 45%, with Democrat Gary McDowell at 29%. In the GOP-leaning 3rd district opened up by the retirement of veteran GOP Congressman Vern Ehlers, young GOP state legislator Justin Amash has a 51-30 lead over Democrat Pat Miles. Lastly, in the 7th district, the pollsters have incumbent Democrat Mark Schauer trailing the man he beat to win the seat (former GOP congressman Tim Walberg) by eight points (45-37).

MI-08: Stalemate over--Dems will get replacement candidate
Kudos to DK community member Brainwrap, who has been relentless in telling the story of the Democratic plight in the potentially competitive 8th district in Michigan. The Democratic nominee, Kande Ngalamulume, left the state shortly after winning the nomination. The GOP Secretary of State refused to take him off the ballot, despite the fact that his campaign was quite clearly deceased, because she had not received adequate proof that he had left the state. With that evidence in hand and a bit of pressure applied, the SoS office finally relented, removing Ngalamulume from the ballot. This paves the way for the Democrats to name a replacement candidate, which will most likely be former teacher Lance Enderle.

OH-17: Jim....Traficant....LIVES!
Don't call it a comeback, he's been here for years...it now looks like former Congressman (and guest of the government) Jim Traficant has successfully petitioned his way onto the ballot for the Fall. He met the signature standard, according to preliminary calculations, by just seven signatures. Traficant, given his long prison stint, is unlikely to win, and unlikely to even be much of a drain on incumbent Democrat Tim Ryan in this heavily Democratic district.

SC-05: GOP pollster claims a tie for longtime Dem incumbent
Another day, another internal poll claiming that a longtime Democratic Congressman is in deep trouble for November. In this case, it is South Carolinian John Spratt, who it must be said does have to defend a pretty tough patch of territory in the Palmetto State. His GOP opponent, Mick Mulvaney, released a slightly dusty (late July) poll showing him dead even at 46% with Spratt.

SD-AL: GOP nominee believes in rule of law...just not rules of road
Ouch. Here's hoping that GOP House nominee Kristi Noem wasn't going for the law and order vote. An investigation by KELO-TV found that Noem has accumulated twenty speeding tickets as well as five other minor traffic violations. In addition, she has been cited a total of six times for failing to appear in court to answer for her charges. She has also been served two arrest warrants for failure to pay traffic fines. I don't know how big the NASCAR vote is in the state of South Dakota, but one has to suspect that Noem has that demographic locked down at this point.

RACE FOR THE HOUSE: DCCC hits the road while Beck bloviates in DC
The media bestowed all of their attention (and probably infinitely more reverence than is deserved) to the rantings of one Fox News host in DC today, but the DCCC took this day and put in some serious work. The committee is launching a major offensive today, going into a total of 75 competitive districts and will focus on both volunteer recruitment and voter contact. The DCCC is anticipating that by the close of business tonight, they will have knocked on close to a quarter million doors.

THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES

MI-Gov: Is Tea Party the key to derailing Snyder?
Amid gruesome new polling numbers from EPIC-MRA (which has Republican Rick Snyder leading Democrat Virg Bernero by a 51-29 margin), a little Michigan-based GOP civil war might be the path to resurrection for the Dems. Despite the fact that GOP nominee Snyder has already indicated that he wants state legislator Brian Calley to be his running mate, the local tea party activists are going to nominate one of their own at this weekend's state convention. The Tea Party is pushing Bill Cooper, a businessman who recently was an also-ran in the GOP primary in the 2nd Congressional District, to be the nominee instead of Calley. While their efforts wound up being for naught (Cooper eventually pulled back and threw his support to Calley), it shows that there are still fault lines in the state. Virg Bernero also named his choice for running mate, giving the nod to Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence.

NV-Gov: Sandoval has huge lead over Reid, according to M-D
A day after their Senate numbers were released, Mason-Dixon's gubernatorial poll hit the news today, and the news was not pretty for Democratic contender Rory Reid. The pollster has Republican Brian Sandoval leading Reid by twenty-two points (53-31). While I did note that Ralston tweet from earlier (that this might be a GOP-friendly poll), one has to presume that Sandoval is very much in the driver's seat in the Silver State.

TX-Gov: Debates will go on, with or without Perry
With Texas Governor Rick Perry still in mid-tantrum and refusing to participate in debate (he is insisting Democrat Bill White release decade-old tax returns before he'll debate), it is refreshing to see the response from area newspapers. They announced yesterday that they will still hold the debates, with or without the participation of Perry. Admittedly, there'd be something quite appropriate about White debating an empty seat, since that would be a perfect representation of one of America's laziest Governors.

UT-Gov: Herbert joins the ranks of the Dred Scott Republicans
Add Utah's relatively new Republican Governor, Gary Herbert, to the ranks of the Dred Scott Republicans (or, as one commenter noted, the Roger Taney Republicans). At the close of the week, Herbert declared that he would have no qualms with rewriting the 14th Amendment to wipe out the notion of birthright citizenship.

VT-Gov: Racine calls for recount as Shumlin's lead made official
The official results in Vermont's ridiculously close Democratic gubernatorial primary came in ahead of schedule, and they confirmed that state senator Peter Shumlin has won the primary. Given the razor-thin margin (197 votes), runner-up Doug Racine immediately requested a recount. Shumlin, perpetuating what he been a battle that has been as civil as it has been closely contested, said that he totally understood Racine's call for a recount.

THE RAS-A-POLL-OOZA

Lots of new gubernatorial numbers for the House of Ras, which has two gubernatorial races getting a little closer for Democrats (Oklahoma and Wisconsin), while another one gets a little further away (South Carolina). They also hit Arizona for the Senate race, and find...well, y'all know the punchline by now.

AZ-Sen: Sen. John McCain (R) 53%, Rodney Glassman (D) 31%
OK-Gov: Mary Fallin (R) 52%, Jari Askins (D) 37%
SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R) 52%, Vincent Sheheen (D) 36%
SC-Sen: Sen. Jim DeMint (R) 63%, Alvin Greene (D) 19%
WI-Gov: Mark Neumann (R) 48%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%
WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) 47%, Tom Barrett (D) 44%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:16 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  WV-Sen: Manchin? Ugh. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shpilk, wv voice of reason

    So, here is my game plan. In November 2010, I will not in good conscience vote for Joe Manchin to replace Senator Byrd. I will be voting for Jesse Johnson of the Mountain Party.

    Joe Manchin will have to prove himself between November 2010 and November 2012 in order to earn my future votes.

    If you're curious, I voted for Hechler in today's primary.

  •  I expect to see the data start to change on (3+ / 0-)

    the Reid angle.....

    He started far back, has solidly caught up and we should start to see some daylight open up.

    it tastes like burning...

    by eastvan on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:21:36 PM PDT

  •  McCain at 53%? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Predictor

    Hmmm .. now ain't that special?

    Now that this Beck Ruptures thing is over, back to reality for the suckers.

    by shpilk on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:21:42 PM PDT

  •  I thought all GOoPers… (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Dbug

    …running for SD-AL had to be speeders. Kristi Noem is just following in the fine tradition laid down by Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin's predecessor Bill Janklow.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com

    by DemSign on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:25:05 PM PDT

  •  Traficant's dead meat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, mph2005

    whether he's on the ballot or not. He pulled this in 2002 too after he was expelled from Congress. It didn't work. The district's so Democratic that even if he pulled Democratic votes (which given his increasingly crazy right-wing-ish positions is unlikely) it wouldn't have much impact on Tim Ryan's total. And that's excellent news.

    Also, go have a look at Jim_Traficant.com. Currently, it's managed by some supporters who claim they will turn it over to him. The site looks like it was put together by a not-too-talented junior high schooler with a serious spelling deficiency.

    De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

    by anastasia p on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:26:53 PM PDT

  •  Major kudos to Brainwrap (5+ / 0-)

    He has been positively relentless in his work for Lance Enderle, in MI-8.

  •  Miller can't expect Murkowski's endorsement (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Corneliusmingus

    after all the bad blood between them IMHO.

    Whether Murkowski decides to try a write in campaign or run as an independent is the next shoe to drop.

    "These old Wall Street boys are putting up an awful fight to keep the government from putting a cop on their corner." - Will Rogers

    by Lefty Coaster on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 07:37:07 PM PDT

  •  I don't believe any pollster anymore. Most are (0+ / 0-)

    Just fakes propped up to set an agenda. I'll wait until election for the real polls to come out.

  •  Arizona Attorney General race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Predictor

    Hey guys, the GOP primary for Attorney General in Arizona is STILL not over yet!

    Democrat Felecia Rotellini, former assistant attorney general of Arizona known for being the state's lead litigator in the 1999 Arthur Andersen case, barely won the Democratic primary over State House minority leader David Lujan, 41.3%-40.8% (that's less than 1,400 votes out of almost 250,000 votes cast).  Fortunately, there doesn't seem to be any bad blood in such a close race.

    Lujan, leader of the Democratic minority in the state House, conceded to Rotellini on Twitter.

    "It was a good fight," Lujan wrote on his Twitter account. "Now, I am going to work as hard as I can to elect Felecia Rotellini as our next attorney general! Congrats Felecia!"

    If that wasn't close enough for you, on the GOP side, it's between superintendent of public instruction Tom Horne and former Maricopa County attorney Andrew Thomas.  And Horne's lead is just at 636 votes out of over 471,000 cast.

    Andrew Thomas is considered a proxy for the odious Sheriff Joe Arpaio, so take it for what it's worth.  Remember, being a shill for Arpaio doesn't necessarily mean Thomas is a weaker candidate, not in this year and state.  So maybe hope that Horne keeps his slim lead in the primary fight, and Rotellini can then hammer him for mismanaging the public schools.

  •  Thanks for the shout-out re. MI-08... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, KingofSpades

    And I'm happy to report that today, at the Michigan Democratic Party's nominating convention, the powers that be in MI-08's Democratic Party officially appointed Lance Enderle as the Democratic candidate for Congress!

    While things are developing VERY quickly (he now has just, what, 64 days to run his entire campaign?), I'd like to invite y'all to sign up for his NEW, official Candidate Facebook page (the old one was for his primary write-in campaign, and was a FB "group" instead of a "page"):

    Lance Enderle on Facebook

    Follow Lance on Twitter

    Lance's ActBlue Page

    Lance's Campaign Website (under major reconstruction next week)

  •  Great, just what Nevada needs. (0+ / 0-)

    A second fail Republican governor in a row. Maybe third. I'm still a bit torn on Guinn.

    Insert witty slogan here.

    by SniperCT on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 08:20:51 PM PDT

  •  Putting on my tinfoil hat, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pronin2

    I can't help but wonder about the story behind the warehouse fire yesterday that destroyed ALL the voting machines for Harris County, TX.  Link here:

    Houston Chronicle

    Since the Dem candidate for Governor, Bill White, was previously the very popular mayor of Houston, isn't it interesting that the inevitable result of this fire will be to suppress voting in Harris County?

    Where was Rick Perry yesterday?????  Just kidding.....I think.

  •  OH-17. My house flickers between OH-18 (Sutton). (0+ / 0-)

    Summit County has no truck with him. Mahoning county will do their thing. Portage county will do theirs.

    "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

    by JugOPunch on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 08:29:56 PM PDT

    •  Oh-18 is Zack Space (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, JugOPunch

      Parts of Portage and Summit are actually in (ugh) Steve "CAFTA" LaTourette's district (Oh-14). I think most of Summit is in Oh-13. I don't know where the rest of Portage is, probably Oh-17. The gerrymandering can give you a headache. Luckily, my district (Oh-11) is semi-rational. The Republicans in charge at the beginning of the decade couldn't do too much with us. Too many Democrats live here. (We're plus-33 Democratic).

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 08:36:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have voted for Ryan. I live in Cuyahoga Falls. (0+ / 0-)

        Then Two years later, my precinct was Sutton. Just saying.

        I missed an 8 and type 3. Getting older. Shit happens. Mea Cupla Mea Culpa Mea Maximum Culpa.

        "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

        by JugOPunch on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 08:51:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  One better. (0+ / 0-)

          "They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

          by JugOPunch on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 08:56:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There's a piece of Akron in Oh-17? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JugOPunch

            That needs to be fixed in reapportionment. Frankly, I don't see how it doesn't make sense to eliminate the 13th district, which is too bad because Betty Sutton is a great congressperson.

            De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

            by anastasia p on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:31:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  OH-17 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JugOPunch
              Ryan was elected in 2002 after ousting Rep. Tom Sawyer, a former Akron Mayor, in the primary. So, yeah, part of Akron is in the district. Map.

              As far as redistricting is concerned, assuming a 16-seat map and that control over the process is divided between the parties, just as happened in 1982 and 1992 we'll probably have a compromise that entails losing a Democrat from northeast Ohio and a Republican from the rest of the state. Most likely, the Rethug victim will be Jean Schmidt, and on our side there will be either a Kucinich vs. Sutton primary, or a primary between Wilson and Space.

  •  These House Poll Number Are Brutal (0+ / 0-)

    It appears that the DEMS are in for a brutal evening in November.  Its going to take all the efforts of the Democratic Party apparatus to try and keep from losing the net 39 seats.

    One positive thing is many DEMS incumbents planned on tough races and have tons of money.  The DCCC also has more money to spend than the NRCC which will help in the tough open seat races.

    In my view the DEMS candidates need to avoid the usual positive "look what we have done" type ads and go hard negative on their unknown opponents. This is war and the pattern for victory this year is to make the other guy look worse than you.

    •  39 is a helluva lot (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      flhiii88

      Even more with you consider Hawaii - Djou, Castle, Kirk and Cao's seats are likely Dem.  So it's more like 43...

      If the GOP takes the House or Senate on November 2nd, might as well cancel NN2011 on Nov 3rd.

      by Jonze on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:11:36 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's exaggerated (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, flhiii88

      I don't see this bloodbath, and more of the "official" pundits are starting to concede it's not all that likely. Some losses, yes, but we need to get over obsessing about "brutal" poll numbers and start working.

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:27:52 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The numbers do look ugly (0+ / 0-)

        While I don't see the election as being "catastrophic" per se, it is going to be an ugly November for Democrats.

        •  Catastrophic is losing the House (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Odysseus

          For a nearly 40 seat majority to get wiped away in one election is clearly catastrophic.  The only times in history a party lost this many seats since WWII were 1994, 1974, 1966, 1958,, and 1946.  And only one of them happened during the first midterm of a Presidency.

          Losing the House again would anger Democrats so badly at Obama that he will very likely be impeached.  

          •  Yeah I could see a GOP-led Congress (0+ / 0-)

            impeaching Obama. But what has amazing surprised me so far is that there has been no "Whitewater" or "Illinois Project". There hasn't been the same legal harassment that Clinton endured.

            •  They are saving that for when they are in control (0+ / 0-)

              If they did in when they were in the minority, they would simply get laughed at.  If they get control, Obama will be impeached and im certain that enough Democrats angry at Obama for losing them the House would go along with it.

              And unlike the 1990's, Obama doesnt have a booming economy to keep people on his side the way Clinton did.  

              •  One problem with your argument (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                murrayewv

                The legal harassment started as early as 1992, well before the GOP took over Congress in 1994.

                •  The Clinton stuff was easier to uncover (0+ / 0-)

                  It was mostly records of high profile activities in Arkansas that were poorly covered up.  

                  Obama's stuff is more complicated, having to do with a home purchase through Rezko and job officers that he may have offered different candidates as well as connections to Blagojevich.  They will need subpoena power to get this stuff.

                  •  don't forget (0+ / 0-)

                    his birth certificate and his college records. I bet with in 72 hours of a republican lead house we will see a committee trying to set up supenas for Obama's birth records, college records, all of the state department papers on when he lived in Indonesia as a child and so on.

                    Trust me if Obama ever farted in a public place we will see witnesses testify that it stunk.

                  •  that is not likely.... (0+ / 0-)

                    Obama and Michelle never had that much money.  Job offers are part of the tool of politics- how to tell when a job offer is coopting someone.

                    You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. Aldous Huxley

                    by murrayewv on Sun Aug 29, 2010 at 08:58:56 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

  •  Okay, I don't get Ras… (0+ / 0-)

    …it seems to me that the narrative is that DeMint is awfully weak if he only has a 40% lead against Alvin Green.

    Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com

    by DemSign on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:08:45 PM PDT

    •  Well, I don't think THAT seat (0+ / 0-)

      is a likely pickup. I just wish the Senate candidate in Ohio was working a little harder. Once upon a time, that seemed like a potential pickup, but with the money and energy disparity now, it seems less likely.

      De-orangify Congress: Justin Coussoule for Oh-08 http://www.coussouleforcongress.com/

      by anastasia p on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:29:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nope, didn't think SC… (0+ / 0-)

        …had a snowball's chance of going Dem, but I find it hard to swallow that there is 19% of anyone planning on voting for Green. If I were in SC I'd be voting for the Green party candidate.

        Teh stoopidTM, it hurts. Buy smart, union-printed, USA-made, signs, stickers, swag for everyone: DemSign.com

        by DemSign on Sun Aug 29, 2010 at 04:34:21 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI-7: Nice to see Schauer only down by eight. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    I would have guessed the gap to be a bit larger, especially given Bernero's abysmal numbers, the hotly-contested Republican primary and some tough votes for health care and climate change bills.

    This might be the best chance to keep a Dem seat among the toss-ups in Michigan.  Walberg has a lot of negatives.  He is a former congressman, so he can't run an outsider campaign.  He's a doctrinaire religious conservative.

    http://twitter.com/mikeingels

    by DingellDem on Sat Aug 28, 2010 at 09:15:51 PM PDT

  •  Tell Everyone - - CA - Sen: Boxer (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    Sen. Barbara Boxer:

    "My opponent is running solely on her experience as the CEO of Hewlett-Packard."

    "What she doesn't tell you is that she was fired as CEO of Hewlett-Packard after she shipped 30,000 jobs abroad."

    Fiorina, the Republican's plan: continue Bush tax cuts for wealthy Americans; opposition to abortion rights; and support for offshore drilling in California

    http://www.sfgate.com/...

    My policies are for today and tomorrow. Carly's policies are sooo yesterday going back to George W. Bush. - Sen. Barbara Boxer

    by anyname on Sun Aug 29, 2010 at 04:29:46 AM PDT

  •  Those AK absentee ballots (0+ / 0-)

    The quantitative analysis from Jeffmd is great, but I think that, in this case, you need to be informed about some qualtitative matters to put this issue to rest.

    That's not usually the case.  Elections in which the winner among the votes counted on election doesn't lead by more votes than are still out there uncounted, elections where the uncounted votes might make a difference, are not at all rare.  Yet the winner on election night almost always goes on to win after all the votes are counted, and by a larger margin than the election night tally.  

    That's because there usually is no inherent, sizable, differential bias when you compare the votes that get counted on election night, vs those that get counted later.  If one candidate took the election night ballots by 52-48, all things being equal, they will take the late-counted ballots by the same 52-48, and their lead just increases.

    Now, jeffmd's analysis looks at some sources of potential differential bias that you can get at by quantitative methods, and finds Murkowski is likely to lose by even more than the election-night-counted margin would project if you assume that the absentees and provisionals will break only as bad for her as the votes already counted.

    The inherent limitation with that approach is that absentees especially, if certan qualitative features are in place, can be highly changeable from one election to the next.  Here in VA, for example, we have two factors that make the absentees swing wildly form one election to the next.  We don't have early voting per se, biut we tend to make it easy to vote "absentee in person" ahead of election day, and we have such broad criteria to qualify for "absentee" voting, far beyond actually being absent on Election Day, that very many people would qualify if they wanted to.  We almost have early voting on demand.  VA also reports on whether or not someone voted absentee in any given election.  These two factors make it possible for campaigns to target people with a history of voting absentee, or who we know by demographic data might qualify, for special targeted efforts.  The result is huge swings from race to race, election to election, in which side benefits from the absentees.  Breaks in the absentee margin of >8%, from either past history, or from the margin on Election Night, what Murkowski needs here, are not uncommon in VA.

    To make this story complete, I would like to see some discussion of the past volatility of absentee margins, and of factors that might lead to differences of >8% being or not being likely.  Does AK election law allow large percentages of voters to vote absentee basically on demnand, or is that option only open to a narrow, largely fixed, group?  Did either campaign make the kind of special targeting effort that might have produced huge swings?

    We should have destroyed the presidency before Obama took office. Too late now.

    by gtomkins on Sun Aug 29, 2010 at 09:41:04 AM PDT

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