It couldn't happen at a more inopportune moment, but we are starting to get bombarded with many more inconvenient, if not downright ugly, facts (for Democratic incumbents) regarding our economy. And, as of today--finally--instead of happy talk about unmet expectations that "accentuate the positive" with stories about our "Recovery Summer," it would appear that the White House is shifting strategy and telling it like Main Street has known it to be for quite some time, too.
All I can say is, better late than never: "Goolsbee: Unemployment 'Going to Stay High.'"
Goolsbee: Unemployment 'Going to Stay High'
White House Adviser Says Long Road to Less Joblessness
By JOSHUA MILLER
ABC
September 12, 2010
Unemployment in the United States is "going to stay high" Austan Goolsbee, Obama's chief economic adviser, told Christiane Amanpour this morning on "This Week."
"This recession is the deepest in our lifetimes, the deepest since 1929," said Goolsbee, who was just appointed chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "More than eight million people lost their jobs. It's going to take a significant push on our part - and time - before that comes down," he said. "I don't anticipate it coming down right away..."
Meanwhile, and for the record and for quite awhile, too, I've been referencing previous, candid administration commentary about unemployment forecasts (which have also dropped off the radar of the MSM amidst the spin of past months), much to the chagrin of many in this community, such as this: "Romer, Orszag, Geithner: ≥9.7% Jobless Through 2010." Unfortunately, we're now reading where even those projections may be understated: "Double Digit Unemployment Rate early next year?"
And, here, courtesy of Calculated Risk, are two really good reasons why the administration's unemployment projections may still fall shy of reality: "Paper: Housing and the Business Cycle."
Here's an example of what I'm talking about when I use the term, "Press Advisories From Hell," as noted in the diary's headline: "Census Bureau to Announce Findings for Income, Earnings, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage." The U.S. Census Bureau's online news conference announcing this report's findings will be held this upcoming Thursday, September 16th, at 10AM EDT. 12 days later, "...local data for income, poverty and health insurance coverage will be available Tuesday, Sept. 28th, when the Census Bureau releases new socioeconomic, housing and demographic data from the 2009 American Community Survey."
I posted a few diaries on this last year, around this time, when the Census Bureau's 2008 Reports were announced, including, "New Census Data This A.M.: Income, Poverty and Health Ins." (9/10/09), and this, "Hidden Health Ins. Realities In New Census Bureau Report (9/11/09)."
This year, the forecast is significantly worse: "Poverty Rate In U.S. Saw Record Increase In 2009: 1 In 7 Americans Are Poor."
Poverty Rate In U.S. Saw Record Increase In 2009: 1 In 7 Americans Are Poor
Associated Press (via Huffington Post)
HOPE YEN and LIZ SIDOTI | 09/11/10 11:14 PM | AP
WASHINGTON -- The number of people in the U.S. who are in poverty is on track for a record increase on President Barack Obama's watch, with the ranks of working-age poor approaching 1960s levels that led to the national war on poverty.
Census figures for 2009 - the recession-ravaged first year of the Democrat's presidency - are to be released in the coming week, and demographers expect grim findings.
It's unfortunate timing for Obama and his party just seven weeks before important elections when control of Congress is at stake. The anticipated poverty rate increase - from 13.2 percent to about 15 percent - would be another blow to Democrats struggling to persuade voters to keep them in power.
The AP coverage included the following point:
Interviews with six demographers who closely track poverty trends found wide consensus that 2009 figures are likely to show a significant rate increase to the range of 14.7 percent to 15 percent.
As the story also noted, if those forecasts hold true, then we're looking at approximately 45 million folks in this country--more than one in seven--being officially below the poverty line; and, that constitutes the greatest year-over-year increase since the government began tracking these statistics in 1959.
Yesterday's NY Times informed us that: "Number of Families in Shelters Rises."
Number of Families in Shelters Rises
By MICHAEL LUO
New York Times
Published: September 11, 2010
...For millions who have lost jobs or faced eviction in the economic downturn, homelessness is perhaps the darkest fear of all. In the end, though, for all the devastation wrought by the recession, a vast majority of people who have faced the possibility have somehow managed to avoid it.
Nevertheless, from 2007 through 2009, the number of families in homeless shelters -- households with at least one adult and one minor child -- leapt to 170,000 from 131,000, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
With long-term unemployment ballooning, those numbers could easily climb this year. Late in 2009, however, states began distributing $1.5 billion that has been made available over three years by the federal government as part of the stimulus package for the Homeless Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing Program, which provides financial assistance to keep people in their homes or get them back in one quickly if they lose them.
More than 550,000 people have received aid, including more than 1,800 in Rhode Island, with just over a quarter of the money for the program spent so far nationally, state and federal officials said.
Even so, it remains to be seen whether the program is keeping pace with the continuing economic hardship...
And, on Wednesday, we learned that: "Food Stamp Participation Climbs 10%."
However, as I noted in THIS diary, on Thursday, "...when you look closely at the June '10 vs. June '09 vs. June '08 statistics, the reality looks more like an increase of over 22% from June '08 to June '09, and another increase of more than 18% from June '09 to June '10. (Note: If someone could explain to me how that's not the case, I'm ready to correct this observation.) Here are the stats, direct from the government: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program ("SNAP," a/k/a food stamps)."
So, while it's long overdue, IMHO, and despite the ongoing denial of many in this community (I will not be providing links to support this sentence, but you know what I'm talking about, even without the specifics) to the contrary, STILL, I welcome this apparent shift towards more candor in the messaging coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
A little less use of the word, "recovery" (Krugman recently referred to it as "Delusions Of Recovery"), and a little more empathy regarding the suffering currently going down on Main Street is a good place for Democrats to turn, at least if they're interested in putting forth any type of message that resonates with the voters before November 2nd.
Better late than never.