A poll out of Alaska Thursday found Republican nominee Joe Miller fading quickly, as Democrat Scott McAdams slotted into a strong second place, just inches away from front-runner Lisa Murkowski. Given that Murkowski received a quarter of her support from Democrats afraid of electing Miller, it was clear that McAdams could win if those Democrats came home.
Murkowski's camp laughed off the results, claiming McAdams was a distant third. Yet we wake up to this (which Politico calls a "GAME CHANGE!)":
A high-level GOP source tells me that party leaders have essentially given up on Republican Senate candidate Joe Miller and are now banking on a victory by write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski as the best bet for Republicans to keep the Alaska Senate seat.
[W]ith Miller's campaign faltering, the source tells me that Republican leaders are now worried that Democrat Scott McAdams has a shot of winning and that Murkowski may be the only way to stop him [...]
The nightmare scenario for Republicans is that McAdams comes in second on Election Day, trailing "write-in candidate." Those write-in votes won't be counted unless there are more write-in votes than there are votes for any candidate on the ballot. Once the write-in votes are counted, however, some of them will inevitably be disqualified (illegible writing, wrong name, etc.). And a small number will be for candidates other than Murkowski. If enough are tossed out, second place McAdams would be the winner.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been forced to spend precious resources in Alaska. But take a look at the latest ad running in Alaska: It spends 25 seconds attacking Democrat McAdams and less than five seconds mentioning Joe Miller.
If Murkowski wins, it'll be because 1) Democrats stick with her out of fear, or 2) because Miller looses enough support (a la the Colorado governor's race) to boost Murkowski over McAdams. If it's the latter, there's little we can do about it. Alaska is a Republican state in a Republican year. But it would really suck if it was the former.
Murkowski has been a reliable GOP vote for the last six years, and nothing would change that. Pretending that she'd be somehow better than Miller is wishful thinking.
(There's an ongoing discussion on the topic on the rec list.)