According to contrarian trading practices used on Wall Street, the time to buy is when everyone is selling and the time to sell is when everyone is buying. Not only is that the theory but, the higher the volume being traded in the direction of the move the stronger the conviction of the move. Using the same analogy with the POTUS, If you had sold/shorted Obama when he first took office , when the volume of people going long Obama was astronomically high, and waited for your position to appreciate over the next 2 years, you would be a rich man today. Obama's value has declined enormously and you make lots of money when you short an asset that has enormously declined in value. OTOH, If you had gone long on Obama (bought Obama), you would be losing your shirt right now because Obama has declined in value. Look how much money the majority of the people who went long on Obama lost. That is the essence of contrarian analysis, the masses are ALWAYS wrong. Judging by the comments dominating the discourse here , along with the comments in the MSM, like Paul Krugman's latest, it may now be the time to start think about taking a long position on Obama.
Betting on Obama now, even tho it goes against my judgement, which is influenced by what I read and hear, is the right bet according to contrarian analysis. Obama's perceived value is down but Obama may be under valued. He beat Hillary Clinton in the primary. How did he do that and have no value? Obama also won the race for POTUS, not an easy task for anyone especially a black man. You don't become POTUS and have no value. There is value, and his value is that he succeeds when people least expect it. The reason why he succeeds because his time horizon is longer than most peoples. I'll give you a couple examples. There was no way he was beating Hillary Clinton when primary season started, right? There was no way a black man could be POTUS, right? There was no way health care was passing,right? Those are 3 great examples of his ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. In each case, he had the ability to use ALL the alotted time he was given to succeed at the task at hand. I'm not sure what his talent/value is called but I'll call it "time perpective". He is the anti immediate self-gratification President. He doesn't do things on a time table that jives with most Americans time tables.
He uses many tactics to obtain his goals. One of the major tactics I think he is using right now is to agree with Republicans claim that "the American people have spoken". 88% of America thinks unemployment benefits should be extended but there was a Republican title wave on election day. How is that possible? Obama knows America hasn't spoken. America doesn't know what it wants. America is confused and Obama has the patience to let America find out what they really want, especially independents and moderate Republicans. He has the patience to let the Republican party put the final nail in their own coffin even tho we don't. The polls show that America doesn't really agree with most of the Republican party platform. A good percentage of America might agree with the Republican wedge issues but just wait until their financial platform starts hitting home. His latest capitulation is calculated and it's a capitulation on financial issues. That is no coincidence. He didn't capitulate on off shore oil drilling. What Obama does best is fire people up but not only that, he lets people hang themselves because his time horizon is always longer than his opponents. He knows Congress makes the laws, not him. He knows John McCain is going to make an ass out of himself in front of Admiral Mullen. He knows Republicans are going to reveal themselves as the heartless millionaires that they are but, it all takes time and a little political posturing on Obama's part. He also knows that reducing spending is going to collapse the economy BUT America needs to find that out on their own time. The next 2 years will prove that. Already I personally know many people about to be laid off because gov't spending is slowing down. Unemployment benefits are being cut off. We know what is going to happen but Obama , in certain respects , is a victim of his own competence. America didn't suffer enough because the recovery was too efficient. If Republican policies , which Republicans claim America wants, cause a double dip it may really, and I mean really, be the end of the Republican party. I know there are people out there who are suffering immensely but, they aren't the majority. Majority of people out there are clueless and they need to be given a clue. Be careful what you wish for because you just might get it and Obama may be willing to give it to them just to show them that America should be grateful for what has transpired over the past 2 years but, the majority of America still hasn't shaken the immediate self-gratification culture. They don't realize that gov't policies have prolonged the party. Just observe the attitude toward the stimulus as an example. People said it was a waste of money. Just wait until the stimulus dries up. Look what happened to housing after the end of the housing tax credit. Anyway I could ramble on more but according to contrarian analysis, Obama is a screaming BUY.