Republicans are good at ignoring things they don't like. They've ignored the Congressional Budget Office's estimates of the cost of repealing the health care law (PPACA), and you can be sure they will not pay attention to what the American people have been telling them recently about the law itself.
In the latest poll on Americans' attitudes towards the PPACA, 62% said that they either preferred that the law be left in place or strengthened. Coming on the heels of two other polls with similar results, there is little doubt that Republicans are barking up the 'right' tree when they seek repeal.
Judge for yourself: here's the most recent health care poll results from three pollsters, AP-Gfk, CNN and Marist.
Average of the three polls:
Keep the status quo or have the law do more: 56%
Repeal the law or make it do less: 40%
AP-GfK poll, 1/5/11 - 1/10/11:
Summary:
Status quo or do more: 62%
Repeal or do less: 36%
In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reforms that were passed by Congress in March?
Support: 40%
Oppose: 41%
What would you prefer Congress do with the new health care law?
Leave it as is: 19%
Change it so that it does MORE to change the heath care system: 43%
Change it so that it does LESS to change the heath care system: 10%
Repeal it completely: 26%
CNN 12/17/10 - 12/19/10:
Summary:
Favor or oppose because not liberal enough: 56%
Oppose otherwise: 41%
As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law earlier this year. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?
Favor: 43%
Oppose: 54%
Do you oppose that legislation because you think its approach toward health care is too liberal, or because you think it is not liberal enough?
Too liberal: 37%
Not liberal enough: 13%
Marist 1/6/11 - 1/10/11:
Summary:
Status quo or do more: 49%
Repeal or do less: 43%
Which one of the following comes closest to your opinion about what Congress should do with the 2010 health care law?
Let it stand: 14%
Change it so it does more: 35%
Change it so it does less: 13%
Repeal it completely: 30%
But what about Rasmussen? There's always a Rasmussen poll Republicans can cite to contradict every other poll, and indeed, this is no exception:
Rasmussen 1/11/11 - 1/12/11:
Rasmussen Summary Headline: 75% Want Health Care Law Changed
Think for a moment about the health care law that was passed last year. Should Congress repeal that law and do nothing to replace it; repeal the law and then replace it with only the most popular provisions; leave the current law in place and remove the most unpopular parts, or leave the current law in place and make no changes?
Leave in place: 18%
Leave and remove unpopular parts: 27%
Repeal then replace with most popular provisions: 28%
Repeal and do nothing to replace it: 20%
One can immediately see the bias dripping from Rasmussen's jaws -- there is no provision in the poll for anything resembling improving the law; further, what pollee would not be enticed to an option which includes 'remove the unpopular parts' or 'replace with the most popular provisions' rather than the status quo? Only people against Motherhood or astute Daily Kos readers, most likely.
But that's not all. The poll numbers and wording doesn't tell you everything. You have to know who was polled. Rasmussen polled likely voters while AP-GfK, CNN and Marist polled American adults. If you want to know how Americans feel about the law, you poll Americans. If you want to know how voters feel about the law, you poll voters (but no one except Rasmussen polls so-called likely voters this far out from an election cycle!).
We already know that Rasmussen screwed up big time in its screening for likely voters for the 2010 mid-terms. They were by far the worst national pollster (and the most prolific), consistently off in favor of Republicans. That they continue to post results using the same flawed methodology is a clue to what their goal is. And that is not the accurate gauging of voter or popular sentiment.
What About the Mandate?
There is one point on which all polling about the PPACA agrees: the mandate requiring people to have health insurance or pay a fine is unpopular. For instance, from the AP-GfK poll:
Do you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law that would require every American to have health insurance, or pay money to the government as a penalty if they do not, unless the person is very poor?
Favor: 31%
Oppose: 59%
Seems like this question and similar ones usually asked about the mandate are akin to querying the American public with such tautologies as
Do you want your taxes raised?
Do you think the government should eliminate waste and fraud?
It may not be quite that obvious, but why is there any reason to believe that a random American -- without much of an understanding about how health insurance works -- would be in favor of a penalty assessed by the government?
Suppose instead the question were asked like this:
Do you favor or oppose a law that would allow any American to purchase health insurance at any time regardless of a pre-existing condition, with the provisio that if a person chooses not to purchase insurance, those Americans who have payed for insurance will be charged for this person's health care needs in their future premiums in the event that such a person becomes seriously ill?
or
Do you favor or oppose a law that would require every American to have health insurance unless they are very poor, if having such a law means that your health insurance premiums would be 15% less than they otherwise would be?
Do you think the response would be materially different (assuming the question could be made understandable enough for the average person) ?
I think very much so.
This is not to say that there aren't much better options than a mandate: single payer, Medicare buyin, a public option -- even tax rebates for having insurance coverage, the reverse of a penalty -- would all be superior in both efficiency for coverage and likely in popularity. But the unpopularity of the mandate is overblown: it's something that has been manufactured by pollsters because it is very difficult to adequately explain the consequences of not having a mandate to the average American. And without understanding both the pros and the cons, the question cannot be answered plausibly.
And Congress?
If Congress were really listening to the American people, they would be working to improve the PPACA, not grandstanding by voting on a repeal bill that has no chance of ever becoming law.
If Congress wanted to understand what the polls were telling them, they wouldn't be working on devious ways to defund the health care law, picking it apart bit by bit. Instead, they would be holding hearings on ways the law could be improved.
Don't hold your breath though (especially if you don't have health insurance).