Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/28-5/1, Arizona voters, no trendlines):
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 48
Jeff Flake (R): 41
Undecided: 11
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 57
JD Hayworth (R): 31
Undecided: 12
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 54
Sarah Palin (R): 36
Undecided: 10
Terry Goddard (D): 45
Jeff Flake (R): 45
Undecided: 10
Terry Goddard (D): 51
JD Hayworth (R): 33
Undecided: 16
Terry Goddard (D): 49
Sarah Palin (R): 40
Undecided: 11
Phil Gordon (D): 33
Jeff Flake (R): 47
Undecided: 20
Phil Gordon (D): 44
JD Hayworth (R): 36
Undecided: 20
Phil Gordon (D): 45
Sarah Palin (R): 41
Undecided: 13
Ed Pastor (D): 34
Jeff Flake (R): 46
Undecided: 20
Ed Pastor (D): 42
JD Hayworth (R): 37
Undecided: 21
Ed Pastor (D): 45
Sarah Palin (R): 43
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Oof, that's a lot of matchups... but right now, only one of these three Republicans and four Democrats are actually running: GOP Rep. Jeff Flake. On the Democratic side, all eyes are on Rep. Gabby Giffords, who is of course still recovering from the horrific gunshot wound she suffered in January. The Dem establishment is patiently waiting to see whether she decides to run for Jon Kyl's open Senate seat; pending that decision, everyone on the D side has been reluctant to jump in the race.
And as this poll shows, this stasis is not merely a sign of respect: Giffords is far and away our best potential candidate—in the scenario, of course, where she more-or-less fully recovers and decides to seek higher office. She has tremendous 57-16 favorables across the state, and is even narrowly positive among Republicans. She even beats Flake, the strongest GOP name, by a decent margin. But Democrats can't count on her making the race and need to have a plan B.
Fortunately, Flake is not exactly, as Tom Jensen puts it, a juggernaut. He only has 29-30 favorables, and he's tied in the head-to-heads with our second-best bet, former AG and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Terry Goddard. I'm actually pleased to see that despite a bruising campaign against the odious Jan Brewer last year, Goddard's favorables are above water, at 43-36. As far as I know, Goddard hasn't ruled out a run, and I think he ran a good campaign in a very hostile year (against an opponent who lucked into her role as the Queen of Xenephobia). We'd have a definite shot at picking this seat up in a Goddard-Flake matchup, especially if Obama contests the state.
The two other Democratic names, though, range from uninspiring to awful. Rep. Ed Pastor isn't particularly popular or well-known and loses badly to Flake. The worst choice is Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, who seems to have alienated everyone during his long tenure in office. His favorables are a terrible 18-37 by an even bigger margin than Pastor does. I think Pastor could potentially up his game and do decently if the job fell to him, but I can't say the same about Gordon.
The other Republicans tested here are barely worth mentioning - JD Hayworth is on a deeply sad ebb after getting his butt kicked by John McCain (!) in the GOP Senate primary last year. And a Sarah Palin candidacy is nothing more than idle rumor-mongering. I remain surprised that no one serious has emerged to challenge the quasi-unorthodox, semi-libertarian Flake in the primary, but hopefully that will change. If a serious battle unfolds on the Republican side, that would probably only increase our chances. So keep your eyes on this one—it should be a real race.