Given a certain story that's been in the news the past few days, I thought I might revisit & update a diary I wrote a couple years ago. So let's talk about the end of the world and play "Pick Your Apocalypse."
Below is a list of really, really, REALLY bad events wherein the survival of the human race might be in doubt if they occurred. The possible scenarios range from "could happen," to not very likely but still possible, and some that are way the Hell out there on a limb. It's basically all the stuff most disaster movies use for their plots. The good news is that life on this planet has survived through some of these things, and others don't have to happen if we don't want them to happen.
Please excuse the internetese faux pa of all-caps in the title. For those that don't already know, I'm not SCREAMING. It's an acronym for "The End Of The World As We Know It."
So... where to begin? How about with one the CDC was providing guidance for this week? Well... sorta.
► Zombie Apocalypse
This week Dr. Ali Khan of the
Centers For Disease Control (CDC) advised citizens, that in the event of a Zombie outbreak, it would be a good idea to have an emergency kit that includes:
- Water (1 gallon per person per day)
- Food (stock up on non-perishable items that you eat regularly)
- Medications (this includes prescription and non-prescription meds)
- Tools and Supplies (utility knife, duct tape, battery powered radio, etc.)
- Sanitation and Hygiene (household bleach, soap, towels, etc.)
- Clothing and Bedding (a change of clothes for each family member and blankets)
- Important documents (copies of your driver’s license, passport, and birth certificate to name a few)
- First Aid supplies (although you’re a goner if a zombie bites you, you can use these supplies to treat basic cuts and lacerations that you might get during a tornado or hurricane)
One glaring omission from Khan's recommendations is a
weapon. Screw the change of clothes, how about something to defend yourself with when your recently reanimated, undead friends & relatives start shambling towards ya?
Before those of you with tinfoil hats get any ideas, Khan's post is not proof the government thinks Zombies are possible, but his way of getting across the idea of preparedness. All of the supplies you might conceivably need for a Zombie Apocalypse are also the ones you'd need in the event of a natural disaster like a flood, earthquake, or hurricane.
Personally, I think we might have a chance if it's the slow lumbering kind. We're probably screwed if we gotta deal with the fast suckers. Among the "5 Scientific Reasons A Zombie Apocalypse Could Happen," Cracked.com once offered these possibilities.
Brain Parasites
Parasites that turn victims into mindless, zombie-like slaves are fairly common in nature. There's one called toxoplasmosa gondii that seems to devote its entire existence to being terrifying.
This bug infects rats, but can only breed inside the intestines of a cat. The parasite knows it needs to get the rat inside the cat (yes, we realize this sounds like the beginning of the most fucked-up Dr. Seuss poem ever) so the parasite takes over the rat's freaking brain, and intentionally makes it scurry toward where the cats hang out. The rat is being programmed to get itself eaten, and it doesn't even know.
Of course, those are just rats, right?
Hey, did we mention that half the human population on Earth is infected with toxoplasmosa, and don't know it? Hey, maybe you're one of them. Flip a coin. Oh, also, they've done studies and shown that the infected see a change in their personality and have a higher chance of going batshit insane.
Neurotoxins
There are certain kinds of poisons that slow your bodily functions to the point that you'll be considered dead, even to a doctor (okay, maybe not to a good doctor). The poison from fugu (Japanese blowfish) can do this.
The victims can then be brought back under the effects of a drug like datura stramonium (or other chemicals called alkaloids) that leave them in a trance-like state with no memory, but still able to perform simple tasks like eating, sleeping, moaning and shambling around with their arms outstretched.
This stuff has happened in Haiti; that's where the word "zombie" comes from. There are books about it, the most famous ones by Dr. Wade Davis (Passage of Darkness and The Serpent and the Rainbow). Yes, the movie The Serpent and the Rainbow was based on this guy's actual science stuff. How much of it was fact? Well, there was that one scene where they strapped the guy naked to a chair and drove a huge spike through his balls. We're hoping that part wasn't true.
A "Rage" Virus
When Mad Cow gets in humans, they call it Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Check out the symptoms:
- Changes in gait (walking)
- Hallucinations
- Lack of coordination (for example, stumbling and falling
- Muscle twitching
- Myoclonic jerks or seizures
- Rapidly developing delirium or dementia
Sure, the disease is rare (though maybe not as rare as we think) and the afflicted aren't known to chase after people in murderous mobs. Yet. But, it proves widespread brain infections of the Rage variety are just a matter of waiting for the right disease to come along.
► War
Nuclear, biological, and/or long-term conventional warfare could cause massive damage to the planet's biosphere. I was a small child in the 80s, one of the more heightened times of the Cold War, but I still remember that in those days people believed it was possible that in the middle of the night we might all wake up to Soviet warheads exploding over major cities.
In the event of a full-scale global nuclear exchange, there would likely be some survivors, but those that do survive may wish they hadn't. They & the cockroaches would be looking at a world plunged into a second Dark Age, with cancers & mutations, and a changed global climate from nuclear winter.
According to a recent study, even in the event of a limited, regional nuclear exchange (for example, say between Pakistan & India), the possible aftermath might be disastrous for the entire planet. Leaving aside all the other horrible shit that would occur, the effect on crop yields alone might starve hundreds of millions.
► Pandemic
A highly deadly & virulent antibiotic-resistant bacterium, antifungal-resistant fungus, genetic disease, prion, or antiviral-resistant virus destroying most human life on Earth.
To the right is a Gram-negative rod-shaped bacterium called Yersinia Pestis. It is more commonly known as the bacterial cause of Plague, and thought to be responsible for the "Black Death." It may have eradicated anywhere between a third to half of Europe's population in the 14th century.
The plague came to Europe in the fall of 1347. By 1350 it had largely passed out of western Europe. In the space of two years, one out of every three people was dead. Nothing like that has happened before or since.
These general numbers disguise the uneven nature of the epidemic. Some areas suffered little, others suffered far more. Here are some examples. Between 45% and 75% of Florence died in a single year. One-third died in the first six months. Its entire economic system collapsed for a time. In Venice, which kept excellent records, 60% died over the course of 18 months: five hundred to six hundred a day at the height.
I've always been fascinated by the bitter irony that it's believed the disease vector for Plague was fleas carried by rats. However, cats (
which could have been eating the rats) were being killed by the human population of the time, who thought cats & witchcraft were the cause of the Plague. A similar incident occurred a few years ago when Egypt ordered the entire country's pig population destroyed because of Swine Flu, even though the Swine Flu strain hadn't been detected in pigs at that point.
► Collapse Of Earth's Environment
Basically the worst parts of
Soylent Green, not even counting the cannibalism. The effects of overpopulation, deforestation, and pollution, cause extensive global climate change. The end result being rising sea levels, disruption of agricultural production, drought, extreme weather patterns, economic collapse, and the extinction of species throughout the food chain. The rise in temperature may also provide a better incubator for bacteria & viruses that threaten us.
And then there's the possibility of an Anoxic Event (loss of a breathable atmosphere). The reverse is responsible for our existence. The Great Oxygenation Event, refers to an event 2.4 billion years ago when the oxygen content in Earth's atmosphere spiked because of the accumulated oxygen from the development of photosynthesis.
The anaerobic inhabitants of Earth around that time were decimated, with some believing the oxygenation of Earth's atmosphere may have been the largest extinction event in Earth's history.
Of the five recent major global extinctions, only the extinction of the dinosaurs is thought to have been caused by the impact of a celestial body. Some evidence suggests the other 4 may have been from the formation of Hydrogen Sulfide in the atmosphere, caused by a lack of oxygen in Earth's oceans from too much Carbon Dioxide.
► Impact Event
Speaking of the dinosaurs, if a 2-mile wide asteroid or comet should cross paths with Earth, the impact would likely destroy most life on the planet.
► Supervolcano
A powerful type of volcano capable of spewing enough ash & soot into Earth's atmosphere to cause volcanic winter. It would also create acid rain & release noxious gases into the atmosphere, and then there's the lava bombs too.
The Yellowstone Caldera in Yellowstone National Park is thought to be a possible site of a Supervolcano eruption. If it occurred, most animal & plant life near Yellowstone would likely be destroyed (covered & suffocated in ashes), with other species across the entire continent & world being affected. The eruption would likely cover most of the United States in ash, block out the Sun for a fair amount of time, and affect global weather as the ash spread.
► Scientific Accident
"Don't cross the streams."
If, for example, the very smart people working on something big & somewhat dangerous, forgot to carry the 1, or put the decimal in the wrong place, that could be... bad. Mistakes happen, even educated mistakes. Some very smart people at NASA spent hundreds of millions and God knows how many man-hours on a Mars orbiter, only to see the project fail because of a
mixup between Metric & English units.
Also, the law of unintended consequences comes into play. Things that we think of as being the answer to our prayers can sometimes have hidden costs further down the line. DDT was sprayed far and wide before the environmental implications were fully understood. There was a time when Doctors sliced into peoples' brains with leucotomes & dug into their eye sockets with ice-picks in the hope of correcting behavioral problems. Thalidomide was given to pregnant women, resulting in thousands of children with birth defects. Mistakes can happen, either through ignorance or negligence. Let's just hope it never happens on a massive, end of the world type scale.
Within science-fiction, things like Ice-Nine and Grey Goo exemplify accidents of a globally destructive nature.
► Rogue Black Hole
The Milky Way Galaxy may have
hundreds of wandering, rogue black holes. If one of them passed near or through our solar system, it's possible it could disrupt the solar system's
Oort cloud (possibly launching comets towards the inner solar system), or throw off the orbit of the planets around the Sun. That could cause cataclysmic climate change
(either too hot or too cold) or, worst case scenario, the Earth is ejected into deep space.
However, the odds of a wandering black hole passing through our system are slim.
► Gamma-Ray Burst
If a star within 10,000 light-years of Earth were to go Supernova, and a
burst of gamma-rays occurred with the jet oriented in our direction, it could reduce or destroy the ozone layer and generate nitrogen oxides
(i.e., highly toxic shit) within Earth's biosphere.
Within about a million years, the hypergiant Eta Carinae (about 7,500 light years from Earth) may go supernova or hypernova, however it's thought the star's orientation doesn't put Earth in danger. Another possibility is the Wolf-Rayet star WR 104, which is about 8,000 light-years from Earth with a rotational axis aligned within 16° of Earth.
However, before you start planning to get off the planet in a million or so years, current understanding of Gamma-Ray Bursts suggests they are extremely rare within metal-rich galaxies (like the Milky Way). So list this one under possible, but extremely unlikely.
► Evolution
The image above is a skull of the species
Homo gautengensis, which may have existed as far back as 2 million years ago. It's been argued this is the first species of the
Homo genus, of which every person reading this sentence is a member (
unless you're some "little green man" that's hacked into our internet to read this). Another interesting thing about the Homo genus is that every species, except for Homo sapiens
(humanity), is extinct (
unless those pictures of Bigfoot running through the woods are real).
So, it's not beyond the realm of possibility that at some point in the future another hominid species will evolve from us, either naturally or with a little bit of an artificial push, and they'll one day display our skulls in museums. The artificial push could be the development of genetic engineering, which might give us something no other species on this planet has ever had; control of our genome.
Paleontologists say that anatomically modern humans may have at one time shared the Earth with as many as three other closely related types — Neanderthals, Homo erectus and the dwarf hominids whose remains were discovered... in Indonesia.
Does evolutionary theory allow for circumstances in which "spin-off" human species could develop again?
Some think the rapid rise of genetic modification could be just such a circumstance. Others believe we could blend ourselves with machines in unprecedented ways — turning natural-born humans into an endangered species.
► Alien Invasion
Speaking of little green men, lets get into the more speculative and
"sci-fi" scenarios. Before getting into all of the shitty things that have been thought up for what a hostile species might conceivably do, there is an argument that if tomorrow Aliens landed in Central Park & peacefully said
"Hello," or played the 5 tones from '
Close Encounters Of The Third Kind", the effect to the planet could be disastrous.
Throughout human history, whenever a scientifically superior culture has interacted with an inferior one, the inferior culture has almost always been changed by the interaction. World markets could crash from the instability caused by such a situation. What would the technological & scientific knowledge gained from contact do to current industries? If the computer I'm typing on is about to be replaced by a superior technology, what does that do to HP, Apple, Microsoft and Dell's stock price? The religious & societal implication could cause all types of disturbances. Mass hysteria could result from people overreacting to the incident. Mass suicides could occur.
However, what if they aren't benign aliens? What if they're conquering/totalitarian kind of aliens? Among the invasion scenarios thought up by science fiction:
- Destruction of humanity and/or changing Earth's biosphere in order to pave the way for the colonization of Earth (e.g. the Martians in "War of the Worlds" unleashing their tripods to eradicate humanity, and spread the "red weed" across Earth)
- Destruction of humanity in order to take Earth's resources (e.g. the "lizard people" aliens in "V" taking over Earth in order to steal our water)
- An attack on Earth & humanity based on a mistake or misunderstanding (e.g. the Minbari's Holy War against humanity in "Babylon 5")
- Enslavement of humanity for manual labor, or taking over human bodies as hosts (e.g. 'Invasion of the Body Snatchers)
- An insidious takeover of Earth, wherein we become a subjugated race without ever knowing about it (e.g. the aliens from 'They Live' who control humanity through subliminal suggestion)
- Taking over Earth in order to obtain food; all 6 billion humans becoming an ingredient in someone's soup (see "To Serve Man")
► Machine Revolt
"At first it meant Allied Mastercomputer, and then it meant Adaptive Manipulator, and later on it developed sentience and linked itself up and they called it an Aggressive Menace, but by then it was too late, and finally it called itself AM, emerging intelligence, and what it meant was I am ... cogito ergo sum ... I think, therefore I am."
- From "I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream"
The development of artificial intelligence may make for a more efficient world, where machines do more of the work humans don't want to do. But if somehow one day the machines become self-aware, they might find no reason for our existence, and decide it's time hunt down and kill Sarah Connor.
► What If Reality Isn't Real?
"Once upon a time, I dreamt I was a butterfly, fluttering hither and thither, to all intents and purposes a butterfly. I was conscious only of following my fancies as a butterfly, and was unconscious of my individuality as a man. Suddenly I awoke, and there I lay, myself again. Now I do not know whether I was then a man dreaming I was a butterfly, or whether I am now a butterfly, dreaming that I am a man."
- Chuang Tzŭ
I did say at the beginning of this that we would eventually get out there on a limb, albeit a metaphysical limb. Philosophers have spent centuries trying to define the nature of reality. Can you prove that you really exist?
"I think, therefore I am." Yeah, but what if you're just a
brain in a vat thinking you're experiencing life?
How do you know that you, me, and everything else isn't somebody's "Sims" game, and we're all programs inside a mainframe? One day that something might get tired of playing, shut the damn computer off, or reboot it. If that happened, humanity, Earth, and the rest of the Universe all go bye bye.....
► Divine Intervention
Of course, if we're on God's computer, this doesn't sound like a happy update to the program.
And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and, lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood; And the stars of heaven fell unto the earth, even as a fig tree casteth her untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind. And the heaven departed as a scroll when it is rolled together; and every mountain and island were moved out of their places.
And the kings of the earth, and the great men, and the rich men, and the chief captains, and the mighty men, and every bondman, and every free man, hid themselves in the dens and in the rocks of the mountains; And said to the mountains and rocks, Fall on us, and hide us from the face of him that sitteth on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb:
For the great day of his wrath is come; and who shall be able to stand?
- Book Of Revelation, Chapter 6, Verses 12-17