Ten years later, Florida is still a clusterfuck. The DOJ told them that their fair redistricting constitutional amendment is constitutionally kashrut, but Lex Luthor acolyte Rick Scott is doing his best to drag his feet, along with the disproportionately Republican lege. The GOP Senate candidates make Katherine Harris look like Willie Stark. But, the state Supreme Court is still run by sane people, so when the GOP egregiously disregards the new redistricting rules there will probably be a judge-drawn map. Thus, below please find what I think they might come up with, and a breakdown of probably party affiliation.
All districts are within 100 people of the ideal (696,313).
Florida
I-4 Corridor
South Florida
Democratic VRA seats:
CD3 (Dark Magenta): Corrine Brown is so self-serving that she actually joined in the lawsuit to overturn Florida's new redistricting laws, but she retains a 51.9% AA seat. The VAP is 49%, but mapmakers might be able to edge that up to 50% by changing precinct boundaries. Regardless, this Democratic North Florida vote sink will continue on.
CD17 (Dark Slate Blue): The Luther Campbell seat in Miami stays mostly unchanged, and retains a 52.5% AA VAP. Sadly I don't know much else about this area, unless GTA: Vice City qualifies as a documentary.
CD23 (Aquamarine): Alcee Hastings's seat has a 51% AA VAP while staying out of Gator Country counties.
Non-VRA safe Democratic seats
CD11 (Chartreuse): Kathy Castor keeps her solidly Dem Tampa seat that is home to many of your favorite The Hold Steady Ybor City references.
CD19 (Yellow Green): The canasta-playing residents of this district should keep returning Ted Deutsch to Congress for the next decade since they gave Barack Obama 62.7% of the vote.
CD20 (Pink): Our new favorite South Floridian Jewish woman (take that, Mrs. Seinfeld) keeps a safe seat that remains entirely within Broward County, as they voted 61.3% for Obama.
Lean D with incumbent Republicans
CD8 (Slate Blue): The "let's hope Alan Grayson doesn't run seat." I love Grayson, he speaks truth to power, he's a bright guy, but he only got 39% of the vote last year. Daniel Webster is probably beatable in a district that went 55-45 for Team Blue, but Grayson isn't the man to do it.
CD10 (Deep Pink): The new rules might finally get rid of Bill Young. He's now in a district that voted 56.4% for Obama. To put that in perspective, only IL10, IL17, NY25, PA06, PA07, PA11, PA15, WA08 and WI07 have Republican representatives in districts that gave 56% to Obama. All we need is a decent candidate (read: not Charlie Justice).
CD22 (Sienna): Crazy Allen West now has to win a 56.1-43.9 Obama seat. Look at the list above, look at how many madmen hold those seats, and guess West's chances of holding this seat in a presidentail year. Still, the Johnny Unitas haircut looks nice, you can really set your watch to it.
CD25 (Pale Violet Red): David Rivera is going Rick Renzi on all of us. At least Renzi had a GOP-leaning seat. The new CD25 (which is 67.8% Hispanic and is contained entirely within Miami-Dade) went 56-44 for Obama. Not sure how the GOP holds this seat, but it's not with Rivera.
Swing Seats:
CD18 (Yellow): This Miami-based seat voted 50.8% for Obama and its Cuban population (68.7% Hispanic VAP) is slowly trending toward Team Blue. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen projects a moderate profile (She's pro-choice sometimes! She's been on Bill Maher's show! She doesn't spit on gay people!) but as soon as she is gone this seat will be hotly contested, as it gave President Obama 50.8%.
CD24 (Indigo): Sandy Adams is one of those accidental congressmen, and if the Florida Supremes make a second suburban Florida seat she'll have a tough time holding onto it, as people who don't believe in evolution have a tough time winning districts that went 50.8% for the president. Notably, John Mica also lives in this seat (his old CD7 is designed for a North Coast congressman) but I imagine he'd move to somewhere in his old district.
Lean Republican
CD13 (Dark Salmon): Sleazy Vern Buchanan's District went for McCain, but Obama got 48.6% here as the Democratic areas of Bradenton are no longer in CD11. Buchanan has deep pockets, but if FEC complaints keep mounting we might have a shot. Still, never count out a shady used car salesman; just look at how well Bud Selig has done for himself.
CD16 (Lime): Mark Foley's old seat now takes in the Treasure Coast instead of the Gulf Coast, and gave 48.6% to President Obama (up from 48.6%), but Tom Rooney seems capable enough to hold onto it.
CD2 (Green): Steve Southerland must be one of the more charismatic morticians out there. Most of them resemble the one from The Big Lebowski. The district went 51.9% McCain (instead of 54% in its old iteration) but Dems would probably need another Blue Dog a la Allen Boyd to keep this seat.
Likely R
CD5 (Gold): Richard Nugent probably can't whip up the tasty guitar licks that Ted Nugent can, but they share the same politics. The district did give 46.8% to President Obama and suburbs are trending blue, but DCCC resources are probably best directed elsewhere
CD9 (Cyan): Mike Bilirakis gets to hold onto his family's sinecure (some places like here, PA09 and IL03 think congressional districts are passed down hereditarily) in a district that only gave 46.6% to President Obama. The Tampa/St. Pete suburbs might be Democratic by the end of the decade though.
CD7 (Dark Gray): As I mentioned earlier, John Mica does not technically live in this 53.8% McCain district, but as a committee chairman he probably has dibs on this North Coast seat. Of course his hairpiece probably comes from Taiwan, which does not have a seat in the House.
CD15 (Dark Orange): We can't prove that Bill Posey's mother did not have sex with an alligator (if you're not familiar with that reference, why aren't you watching The Colbert Report?) but we do know that this district consisting of the Space Coast and Orlando exurbs gave only 45.8% to President Obama. You'd think the Republican War on Science would cost the bad guys votes here, but they're pissed that the president wants to cut wasteful space programs.
CD12 (Cornflower Blue): Dennis Ross is a beneficiary from this map as his district becomes a lot more Republican (54.2% for McCain), losing Tampa suburbs and becoming more centered on rustic Polk County.
CD14 (Olive): Speaking of sinecures, Connie Mack gets to keep a Gulf Coast seat that only gave 45.2% to President Obama. George Will probably creams himself whenever he sees a guy named Connie Mack voting against poor people in the House of Representatives.
CD21 (Maroon): This seat is protected by the VRA believe it or not; it's 85.8% Hispanic and only 43.8% Democratic. These Miami suburbs that are still angry over Bay of Pigs and happy over the JFK assassination will probably return a Republican to Congress, but you never know as all the former CIA guys die out.
Safe Republican
CD27 (Spring Green): Cliff Stearns represents CD6 but he lives in the new CD27. He probably runs in this seat, as it only gave President Obama 42.1% of the vote. CD6 is more Republican, but moving sucks and CD27 is still safe. Of course, Republicans could pull a double switch here: Dan Webster could run in CD27 and Stearns could run in CD06.
CD26 (Gray): This district is my attempt to unite rural areas of South Florida, home of 1976 Burt Reynolds classic Gator. The Republican who wins this seat (it only gave 41.7% to the president) might campaign by airboat. Perhaps Allen West might try to pull a switcheroo and run here?
CD6 (Teal): Culturally, this district is part of South Georgia. Which means Democrats have no shot here.
CD4 (Red): Alvin Brown is mayor of Jacksonville, but when you have to make a VRA district that includes Jacksonville it leaves a safely Republican seat in Duval and Nassau Counties.
CD1 (Blue):Joe Scarborough's old stomping grounds are still the most Republican in the state, and Destin remains the best place to pick up an SEC coed.
Even though Florida is a swing state, a judge-drawn map would only have 6 safe Democratic seats, 4 lean Democratic seats and 2 swing seats out of 27. Blame it on the VRA, which makes a CD3 votesink that makes CD4, CD7 and CD24 less competitive. But it's still better than what Lex Luthor and his friends will cook up. Also, Florida is politically volatile with its influx of residents (including seniors, who seem to be swinging against Republicans). Ten years from now there's no telling how these seats would break. But in 2012, this map is most likely D +4, R -2.
Like me? Hate me? Follow me on Twitter at @Bobby_BigWheel; some politics but mostly sports.