Here's a mystery for our readers to help solve. I don't know the answer, so I started to look for more articles to gain a better understanding. Then, I realized that I might be "hogging" all the research and detective fun for myself. Perhaps, it would be more fun for Kosowatt readers, and better for the development of our collective skills, if we figured it out as a group. This case may help us all gear up and educate ourselves about the pros-and-cons for our analysis and construction of US and global plans.
So I submit this incomplete case study of Scottland's energy future for your consideration.
David Ross, of the The Herald Scottland News reported on June 10, 2011, an oil industry skeptic challenging the governments plans to achieve all of Scotland electrical energy needs with renewable sources by 2020. Experts Warn 100% Green Energy Plan Is Unrealistic
If this were a proper debate I should present the affirmative argument first, but since I do not have it yet, and am hoping some of our readers might help me out, let me start with the rebuttal.
THE Scottish Government’s goal to generate 100% of the country’s energy needs from green sources by 2020 is unrealistic, unachievable and not in the best interests of energy consumers, according to a new report. Within nine years only 39% of Scotland’s electricity generation will be from renewable sources such as wind, wave and tidal power, including energy for export, Inverness-based Mackay Consultants has warned.
The prediction was denied by the Scottish Government, which stressed the real target is for Scotland to generate twice what is needed to meet all our energy demands, with 100% from renewables and the same again from other established sources.
First Minister Alex Salmond has insisted the commitment is achievable and will help to re-industrialise Scotland with 130,000 jobs in the renewable and low-carbon energy sector in the next nine years.
It's time for all Kosowatts, and eventually, all citizens to educate ourlselves with more facts, and a better understanding of our real energy situation and realistic options for moving ahead, and the consequences of failing to reduce our CO2 emissions, and convert our economy to sustainable energy and resource consumption, more quickly.
But, our conversion plans need to be scientifically valid, and stand up to objective challenge. Does the Scottish Plan hold up?
Tony Mackay, a lead author of Prospects for Scotland's Energy Industries, 2011-20 challenges the research used by the Scottish Government for their plan.
”The Mackay report (predicts) production will fall by 37% over the decade because of declines in North Sea oil and gas output. In contrast hydro, wind and other renewables production is forecast to increase by 57%.
Please read the original as fair use restriction prevent me to sharing much more. One of Mr. Mackay's points is that electricity production is only 18% of Scottland's total energy needs, so why does the Government Plan make it the priority?
The study predicts the energy industries will invest nearly £67 billion on capital expenditure in Scotland in the decade to 2020, but the vast bulk will be on oil and gas, not wind, wave or tidal. ... The oil industry is expected to account for about 48% of the latter total, gas 21%, wind energy 17%, coal 6%, marine energy 2% and others 6%.”
Is it possible that part of the diffences in these numbers is because Mr Mackay and the oil industry are including production and export of North Sea oil, and the Scottish numbers are focused on their own domestic consumption? I don't know, just brainstorming.
However, a Scottish Government spokesman said: “This analysis is wrong. Scotland already produces more than one-quarter of electricity from renewables and we have enough renewables capacity installed, under construction or consented to provide almost 60% of our electricity needs.
“By 2020, Scotland will be generating double the amount of electricity we need, with additional electricity generation met by clean energy plants progressively fitted with carbon capture and storage technology.”
Niall Stewart, CEO of Scottish Renewables says “We stand by all our research. The industry is very confident these targets are achievable and indeed there is already more than enough in the pipeline.”
Well, I can see one potential problem. Does Stewart mean "additional electricity generation met with 'clean' energy plants progressively fitted with carbon and storage technology." Which wouldn't really be clean. But, it looks like he is saying that is a potential backup beyond the doubling in renewables?
So what do you think Kosowatts? Anyone up for doing more research with me here?
I am solidly in favor, of plans to agressively convert our energy production to renewable generation, but these plans need to be able to withstand objective scrutiny.
We will not do ourselves any favors, by advancing flawed plans, or accepting them with hope and gullibility.
Let's see how this one holds up over the next few days. If you are too busy to do research, please check back into the comments to see what we make of this mystery.
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