On Monday, I took a look at the upcoming elections which will determine who controls the Virginia Senate. Democrats are almost universally playing defense there, but their position is looking fairly strong.
Today I'm going to do the same for the House of Delegates, where control is not in doubt: Republicans hold a 61-39 advantage in the House (counting two Independents who caucus with the Republicans), and their skillful redistricting plan will likely keep them in the majority for another decade. They've eliminated three seats held by Democrats and drawn three new districts in the outer DC suburbs that they have a good shot at picking up, all while drawing more favorable lines for nearly every district they hold. Another advantage for them is off-off-year elections tend to produce few challengers; in 2007, only 41 House seats had more than one candidate running, and in 2003, it was even less, 39 contested races in the House. We may very well do even worse this year, as only about 24 seats are being contested at the moment. Here's the chart of races that I see as having the potential to be competitive:
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
4th: Johnson/D
37th: Bulova/D |
12th: open/D
93rd: Abbott/D |
2nd: open/D
10th: open/D
34th: Comstock/R
64th: Barlow/D
87th: open/D |
9th: Poindexter/R
21st: Villanueva/R
31st: Lingamfelter/R
42nd: Albo/R
86th: Rust/R |
3rd: Morefield/R
13th: Marshall/R
32nd: Greason/R
51st: Anderson/R
67th: LeMunyon/R
99th: open/D |
|
For the race breakdowns, I have again provided links to the Virginia Public Access Project. The write-up of each district is generally briefer than I have done for the Senate, because the districts are smaller, so the lines generally didn't change much beyond "drops Democratic precincts, adds Republican precincts" in most cases. In addition, there is currently no opposition in several of these districts (specifically, the 4th, 32nd, 51st, 67th, 86th, and no Democrat in the 99th), so this list may get a lot shorter by the August deadline for nominating candidates in those districts.
Seats Held by Democrats
2nd: open seat (Prince William, Stafford)
Bud Phillips' district in Southwest Virginia was dissolved and transported up into the fast-growing DC exurbs; it's now split between eastern Prince William County and northern Stafford County. It's a pretty swingy district, going 57-42 for Obama and 58-42 for McDonnell. Republicans have nominated the wonderfully-named Mark Dudenhefer, a Stafford County Supervisor, while the one Democrat to step forward so far is Esteban Garces, who appears to be some sort of community organizer. Democrats are having a convention in this district, so other candidates may step forward in the next couple months.
4th: Joe Johnson (Dickenson, Russell, Washington, Wise)
Actually, the 2nd wasn't so much dissolved as it was renumbered the 4th. The 4th loses almost all its territory, except for Joe Johnson's home in Abingdon, and gobbles up nearly all of the old 2nd. Why Phillips didn't run here, since he would have had a significant geographical advantage, I don't know. Anyway, the 79-year-old Johnson is surely due to retire sometime in the next decade, so Republicans can just wait until he retires to pick up the seat. Still, a heavily-Republican district (59-39 McCain, 68-32 McDonnell) where the incumbent currently represents only a handful of precincts would seem like a prime opportunity. But so far, no Republican has filed to run here (they went with a convention, so there's still time).
10th: open seat (Clarke, Frederick, Loudoun)
House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong was another loser in redistricting; his district was carved up and moved to the DC exurbs, just like the 2nd, except this one stretches from Leesburg out to the border of Winchester, but most of the population is in Loudoun County. It's Republican-leaning but swingy, having gone 51-48 for Obama and 62-38 for McDonnell. Democrats recruited a pretty decent candidate in Leesburg Town Council member Dave Butler; Republicans are choosing between three candidates in the primary: Loudoun County Republican Party chairman Randy Minchew, former Bush administration appointee Cara Townsend, and attorney John Whitbeck.
12th: open seat (Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)
Del. Jim Shuler decided to retire, leaving this seat open. It was radically changed; the old district stretched from Blacksburg up to Bath County to put Shuler in with Creigh Deeds (Shuler ran in a neighboring district, lost, then ran here again after Deeds won a special election to the State Senate -- these three elections happened within the span of two months). Now the district looks kind of like something from Space Invaders: it's a two-pronged district pulling in Blacksburg and Radford, connected by Giles County. This draws McDonnell's performance way up, but it's deceptive since Deeds won his two home counties by huge margins in '09. The district went 54-44 Obama and 51-49 McDonnell.
The Republican nominee here is Joseph Yost, Treasurer of the Montgomery County Republican Party. Democrats have a convention here, but it seems likely that they will coalesce around the one Democrat who's running so far, Blacksburg Town Council member Don Langrehr. Democrats have an obvious strategy here: turn out college students at Virginia Tech and Radford University, since both have been put in the district.
37th: David Bulova (Fairfax City and County)
This seat shifted west a bit, but remains based in the Fairfax City area, and is unchanged from a partisan standpoint (53-47 McDonnell, 58-41 Obama). I don't expect it to flip, but Bulova hasn't had the most storied electoral history: he won 52-46 in '05, was unopposed in '07, and only won 68% against two nobody third-party candidates in '09. The Republican nominee here is blogger Brian Schoeneman. Bulova has the good fortune of being downballot from Sen. Chap Petersen, who I expect to romp his opponent this year.
64th: Bill Barlow (Franklin, Isle of Wight, Prince George, Southampton, Suffolk, Surry, Sussex)
Like the 4th, the 64th is a guaranteed pickup for the Republicans once the incumbent retires. Unlike the 4th, the Republicans are actively trying to defeat Barlow. The district used to jump across the James River to take in Williamsburg and James City County, but now cuts out those two localities and stretches farther west and south, into Prince George County and Suffolk. The district becomes heavily Republican, going 66-34 for McDonnell and 58-41 for McCain. Barlow was targeted in '09, but managed to hold on thanks to Democratic strength in Surry and Williamsburg and Barlow's personal popularity in Isle of Wight. This time around, he faces Isle of Wight County Republican Party chairman Rick Morris. I expect this will be another close one for Barlow.
87th: open seat (Loudoun, Prince William)
The third redistricting loser is Paula Miller, whose district in Norfolk's East Ocean View neighborhood is dismantled and shipped north to the outer suburbs of DC, specifically eastern Loudoun and a bit of western Prince William. The new district went 59-41 for McDonnell and 54-45 for Obama. Democrats have grassroots organizer Mike Kondratick running, while Republicans will choose between Virginia Republican Party official Jo Ann Chase and consultant David Ramadan in the August 23 primary.
93rd: Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News, Williamsburg, York)
Robin Abbott beat the scandal-plagued incumbent Phil Hamilton in '09, and what did she get for her troubles? The Republicans tried to screw her out of her seat. The district drops parts of Newport News (including Abbott's home) and adds parts of James City and York Counties and the city of Williamsburg. This pushes the district a couple points to the right: it went 55-45 McDonnell and 56-43 Obama. Abbott will face Republican businessman Mike Watson in November.
99th: open seat (Caroline, King George, Lancaster, Richmond County, Northumberland, Westmoreland)
This is by far the least-changed district in the state: one precinct is added, that's it. It's a Republican district, 66-34 McDonnell and 53-46 Obama. Why did the Republicans leave it be? Because Del. Al Pollard retired, and there's no other Democrat in this district who can win here. In fact, no Democrat has even bothered to file to run yet, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's left unchallenged by the convention deadline. Republicans, on the other hand, get three candidates to choose from in the primary: John Lampmann, a former Chief of Staff for Rep. Lamar Smith, Margaret Ransone, a businesswoman, and Dean Sumner, a member of the Northumberland County School Board.
Seats Held by Republicans
3rd: Will Morefield (Bland, Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)
Not much changed in this SWVA district, it just expanded east to take in the remainder of Tazewell County and all of Bland. It's a tough district for Democrats, going 70-30 McDonnell and 62-37 McCain, but it was actually held by a Democrat Dan Bowling until 2009, when a combination of a Democratic collapse in the region and a terrible campaign run by Bowling ended up with a landslide 57-42 victory for the 25-year-old Morefield. This will be a tough district for Democrats to win back, but they are at least contesting it; attorney Vern Presley (no, I am not making that up) has jumped into the race. One bonus for the Democrats: if Phil Puckett routs his tea party challenger in November, it could translate into coattails for Presley, as the districts overlap entirely.
9th: Charles Poindexter (Franklin, Henry, Patrick)
The 9th district drops its wings into Floyd and Pittsylvania Counties, and instead swoops down into Patrick County and western Henry County. This makes it slightly more Democratic, but still pretty daunting: 68-32 McDonnell and 61-38 McCain. It's interesting how quickly things have changed in rural Virginia; Poindexter barely won in 2007, but was then opposed only by an Independent Green candidate. I would otherwise expect this district to be uncrackable by Democrats, but Ward Armstrong, whose district was eliminated, decided to move here. This district now consists about 45% of territory Armstrong represented over the past decade, but it's still going to be an uphill climb for him.
13th: Bob Marshall (Manassas Park, Prince William)
Marshall's district was, I believe, the most overpopulated district in the House before redistricting; it had enough population for two districts. So a lot of precincts had to be removed: the northern portion of the district, including Loudoun County and the northwestern end of Prince William, was moved off to create the new 87th district, while the south end of the district around Manassas is chopped off and added to the 50th and 51st districts. This leaves us with a spindly tentacle that reaches from the Haymarket area to Bull Run, picks up Manassas Park, and adds the bit of Prince William that's wedged between Fairfax and Manassas. This leaves a district that's slightly improved for Democrats, having gone 61-39 McDonnell and 55-44 Obama, but which retains Marshall's base in western Prince William County.
The 13th always seems to be fools' gold for the Democrats; Marshall has had a tight grip on this district, and always manages to win, even while being outspent. Nevertheless, they're trying again; Air Force veteran and defense contractor Carl Genthner is giving it a go this time. We'll see how Marshall does in his newly-slimmed down district.
21st: Ron Villanueva (Chesapeake, Virginia Beach)
This district shifts south a bit, losing a few precincts in the Thalia neighborhood, expanding into Kempsville, and poking down into Chesapeake. This has the effect of making the district a tiny bit more Republican; It went 61-39 McDonnell and 50-49 Obama. Villanueva beat Bobby Mathieson by a mere 14 votes in 2009, so it's good to see that he won't go unchallenged this year: attorney Adrianne Bennett has jumped in on the Democratic side. This is probably one of the few good pickup opportunities for the Democrats this year.
31st: Scott Lingamfelter (Fauquier, Prince William)
Not much was changed in this district located in the outer DC suburbs; a few precincts were swapped, but it only makes the district slightly more Republican. It went 60-40 McDonnell and 52-47 Obama. Lingamfelter has managed to consistently pull in about 55% in this district, but hasn't been able to improve on that performance. Democrats are wisely going after this district; Roy Coffey, chairman of the Prince William County Human Services Board, is running against Lingamfelter.
32nd: Tag Greason (Loudoun)
Not much happened in this district, either. It was made slightly more Republican, by virtue of it having to shed voters. It went 62-38 McDonnell and 53-46 Obama. Incumbent Tag Greason won in a landslide over Dave Poisson in 2009, helped by McDonnell's huge coattails in Loudoun County and Poisson being a pretty weak incumbent. It's looking likely that Greason won't even need to sweat about re-election, as no Democrat has come forward to challenge him yet. They still have time to find a candidate, however.
34th: Barbara Comstock (Fairfax, Loudoun)
This Great Falls/McLean district has been made somewhat more Republican by poking it into Loudoun County and removing a few Democratic precincts in Fairfax. It's gone to 57-43 McDonnell and 51-48 Obama. Still, it's going to be a tough race for Barbara Comstock, who is a right-wing Republican in a slightly Democratic district, and who barely defeated Margi Vanderhye in 2009. She'll be facing attorney Pam Danner in November, and if the Democrats pick up any seats in the House this year, this will be the first to fall.
42nd: Dave Albo (Fairfax)
This district didn't change much, but what changes did occur helped out Albo quite a bit, moving it a few points to the Republicans. The new district went 58-42 McDonnell and 52-47 Obama. Albo is a pretty unpopular figure, being behind the "abuser fees" law that passed in 2007 and was almost immediately repealed due to public outcry. Nevertheless, in one of the biggest cases of political malpractice in recent history here in Virginia, Democrats left him unopposed. A last-minute write-in campaign against Albo garnered 12% of the vote. This time around, Albo is facing attorney John Dobbyn.
51st: Rich Anderson (Prince William)
The familiar song returns: the district was made more Republican. Eastern end chopped off, expanded west into the reliably Republican parts of Prince William County. Rich Anderson narrowly defeated Paul Nichols in '09, almost entirely due to McDonnell's coattails and the Republican Party's help. By all rights, he should expect a stiff challenge this year, but once again, Democrats haven't even come up with a candidate yet, and may very well leave Anderson unopposed.
67th: Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)
Very little was changed here; a couple precincts were dropped in Fairfax, and a few more were added. Once again, a slight shift to the Republicans occurs. It went 58-42 McDonnell and 53-46 Obama. LeMunyon is another NoVa Republican freshman, having defeated Chuck Caputo 53-47. One would expect this to be another prime target for the Democrats, right? Well, nobody's stepped forward to run, so LeMunyon may get a free pass.
86th: Tom Rust (Fairfax, Loudoun)
This is the most Democratic House of Delegates district represented by a Republican. It even almost went for Deeds in 2009. Redistricting helps out Rust a bit, shifting the margins to 53-47 McDonnell and 58-41 Obama. I guess I shouldn't be surprised that there's no Democrat running here; 2007 was the first serious challenge to Rust that the Democrats made in the past decade, and he managed to hold on 53-47. Same thing happened in '09, a 54-46 win for Rust. There's still time for a Democratic candidate to show up here, but I'm not holding my breath.
Wrap-up
After the disastrous 2009 elections, it seems almost surprising that the Democrats could lose more seats. But with five seats in danger and a few more in play, we could easily see the Democrats' numbers drop from 39 down to 32 or 33. Until the Democratic Party of Virginia gets some real leadership and real organization, a huge Republican majority in the House is what we'll be living with in Virginia.