With New Jersey losing a congressional seat, the parties won't agree on another incumbent protection plan. Which means the Democrats need to get the non-partisan 13th member of the state redistricting board to sign off on any plan or risk having the state supreme court redraw the lines. The plan I've put together creates 6 safe Democratic seats, 2 likely Democratic seats and 1 likely Republican seat. It also respects political boundaries and keeps communities of interest together. Maps are below, with analysis after the jump
CD1 (Rob Andrews)
Obama 60.7-39.3 (D+7 since Obama had 53.7% of the two party vote)
-28 people from ideal population
The New Jersey portion of Greater Philadelphia (Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester, Camden and Burlington Counties) is large enough to support almost exactly two congressional districts. So I carved CD1 out of the western Philadelphia suburbs. Andrews represents a D+12 district now, but there isn't a single Republican congressman representing a D+7 district so hopefully he would not object.
CD2 (Frank LoBiondo)
McCain 52.5-47.5 (R+6)
-11 people
This is the South Jersey non-Philadelphia district. LoBiondo has held a Dem-leaning district (his old district went 54-43 for Al Gore) for nearly two decades, but now Republican Ocean County gives him a safe seat.
CD3 (Jon Runyan)
Obama 62.1-37.9 (D+9)
+72 people
Hey, if Republicans didn't want the NJ Philly suburbs to yield two Democratic districts then they wouldn't have alienated them with their social conservative saber-rattling. Runyan's district gains ten points in Democratic performance and will probably get turnstiled by a Democratic candidate in 2012. Much as he got turnstiled by Michael Strahan so often during his playing career.
CD4 (Frank Pallone)
McCain 53.1-46.9 (R+7)
-44 people
Frank Pallone is drawn into this Jersey Shore district but he probably runs in the 6th. Meanwhile, Chris Smith is drawn into the neighboring 7th but he probably has dibs on the new 4th, which is about as Republican as its old iteration. The tax on tanning beds probably cost Team Blue the Jersey Shore for a generation.
CD5 (Scott Garrett and Leonard Lance)
McCain 57.6-42.4 (R+11)
+9 people
Rural Western New Jersey is currently split between three districts, and provided Republican margins in the 7th for most of the decade. This map consolidates the area of common interest into one district. Lance used to be known as a moderate but then he voted to strip Planned Parenthood of its funding. However, his vote for cap and trade may mark him as an apostate to the teabaggers so he might move to the 6th or 7th district and face an uphill climb in some of his old territory.
CD6 (no incumbent)
Obama 57.1-42.9 (D+4)
+14 people
This district contains Middlesex and Monmouth's New York suburbs (the north shore of Monmouth is oriented toward New York City because it has a lot of ferries that run to the Financial District). Pallone's district goes from D-8 to D+4, but his 2010 opponent who held him to 55% is also drawn out of the 6th.
CD7 (Rush Holt and Chris Smith)
Obama 62.0-38.0 (D+8)
+60 people
This is mostly the old CD12, but it does contain most of CD7's swath of Somerset County. Also, renaming the old CD13 as CD12 helps keep the higher numbered districts closer to New York City. Anyway, Rush Holt deserves i) credit for defeating Watson and ii) a safe district so we can keep him in Congress.
CD8 (Bill Pascrell)
Obama 56.2-43.8 (D+3)
-67 people
Pascrell would probably throw the biggest fit upon seeing this map, as he hasn't had a tough race since 1996 and his district goes from D+10 to D+3. But Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen make a district that is compact and contains a community of interest. Western Bergen is Republican but trending Democratic, so hopefully he can keep the seat safe.
CD9 (Steve Rothman)
Obama 59.8-40.2 (D+6)
+72 people
Rothman's district gets slightly more Republican but now it stretches up the Hudson from Hoboken (a white enclave removed from the old 13th to make the new 12th majority Latino) to Rockland County.
CD10 (Donald Payne)
Obama 84.7-15.3 (D+31)
51.4% AA VAP
+23 people
The old district was 57.7% AA, but it's hard to keep that percentage up with the state losing a seat. This is the most heavily AA seat I could cobble together in North Jersey; extending an arm out to Irvington doesn't help matters much.
CD11 (Rodney Frelinghuysen)
Obama 51.0-49.0 (R+3)
-43 people
This district probably vies with CT04 for most hedge fund managers per capita. Thus, if Republicans really let us default then this seat could easily swing toward Team Blue. Frelinghuysen is a pro-choice Republican, but he hasn't ever faced serious competition and he could have a glass jaw, like George Gekas ten years ago.
CD12 (Albio Sires)
Obama 72.3-27.7 (D+19)
53.7 Latino VAP
-59 people
The old CD13 actually only has a Latino plurality, but the community's population has grow large enough to merit a Latino-majority district even as the state loses a seat.
So there you have it. In most years this map would yield an 8-4 delegation, but it could range from 9-3 to 6-6 because it has three swingy seats. Pascrell might object, but this is the Democrats' chance to show the head of the redistricting commission that this is the best deal for the state. The map keeps communities together, gives independent voters a voice, complies with the VRA, looks clean and reflects the political leanings of the state. What more could he want?
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