Perrymania is all the rage, in fact, I am very surprised Macy's is not commissioning a float as we speak, (are they?). In all seriousness, James Richard Perry is the single most definitive clear and present danger to the re-election of Barack Obama. The purpose of writing this diary however is not warn Democrats of that fact, as they already know, but to explain why. Perry is not dangerous because he is a Tea Partier, he is dangerous because in part
he is one of the most talented politicians the state of Texas has ever seen. But even charisma, looks, and charm is not the biggest threat. No, the biggest threat to Obama is the fact that Perry, if he wins, is going to run as a Democrat. A Democrat from Texas past. A Democrat, from 40 years ago.
Some of the things that plagues our politics are inaccurate perceptions. Despite the fact that Hubert Humphrey, LBJ, RFK, and others were all progressive, for some reason the Chris Matthews (re: fair weather media) of the world love to reference Birch Bayh, and Scoop Jackson. You see there is this idea that Democrats used to be conservative and regionally, that was true in some cases, at least socially. Remember, the flaming liberal Jimmy Carter famously confided that he hath lusted in his heart after attractive women. Nowadays we would say he is oh, a human being. But back in the day that was quite taboo. The idea is that the Democrats were primarily a rural populist economic socially conservative party that left the mainstream American. Past FDR, little of this is true. President Truman famously pulled a pin on the grenade that was racist Democrats by integrating our military. Now it is true that the party of the country club set, the Republicans, trended more urbane and sophisticated. To that extent the parties culturally have switched roles.
Come with me will you, to the mid 1960's, a time growing in turbulence and resentment. The urban bases of Texas, Houston and Dallas particularly, were growing more and more towards conservatism. The radical social change sweeping the nation was unsettling many whites and creating a backlash. So as the two parties diverged and Texas went red, a young and some may say confused young Perry was busy carving out a niche for himself as a class clown and underachieving student. In other words, he was setting up to be the perfect future Republican.
What you need to know is that Perry is no true conservative. In fact if he runs as a Southern Democrat from 40 years ago, his record will not entirely contradict him. From Politico contributor Tom "Bats in the Belfry" Tancredo:
“The message is simple,” Perry concluded, “educacion es el futuro, y si se puede.” Education is the future, and (echoing Cesar Chavez’s slogan) yes we can.]
Just a few weeks ago, Perry defended his decision to give in-state tuition to illegal immigrants. He said “to punish these young Texans for their parents’ actions is not what America has always been about.”
Perry opposed Arizona’s tough anti-illegal immigration law SB 1070. “I have concerns,” he explained, “with portions of the law passed in Arizona and believe it would not be the right direction for Texas.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/...
This is a major negative in the GOP primary. Strike one. Of course Perry, a Methodist, has been crowing about his Religious fanaticism in courting the Tea Party. These are the actions of a duplicitous character, a man consumed by ego and the need for power and attention. He has moved churches, and been guest speaker at many. But a while back he was pretty clear about theocracy:
In his first book, On My Honor, published in February 2008, Perry expressed his views on the Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause. "Let's be clear: I don't believe government, which taxes people regardless of their faith, should espouse a specific faith. I also don't think we should allow a small minority of atheists to sanitize our civil dialogue on religious references.
As Scooby Doo would say "Ruh-Roh." Strike two.
To be sure Perry has courted the base through action. He signed the famous Mandatory Ultrasound Law, has cut funding for Planned Parenthood, an organization that uses roughly 3 percent of its' funding for abortion related services, and has in the past called for Days of Prayer for Texas, recently during the wildfires. Keep praying Rick, no rain as of yet.
Also of great appeal to the rabid base, he is a staunch denier of global warming. As this may prove to be the single most important issue our planet faces, it makes a Perry administration a frightening prospect.
Finally the 3-2 pitch, curve ball, strike three Perry is out. Debt. Texas has a major debt problem, mainly caused by the fact that while he is a social Republican, the man known as Gov. Good Hair is weak when it comes to fiscal authoritarianism. You can't raise taxes as a Republican. Period. Actually, allow me to make it clearer. If a Republican's child was a hemophiliac, they would not be allowed to raise taxes to pay for blood. But early on, when he was not eyeing power on the national stage, he increased funding for health care. For most of his tenure he has been a supporter of education, even going so far as to beg John Sharp for help in crafting education funding that can pass. But caught up in between a heart that does not want to starve his home, and pleasing his Republican Overlords, he has created a series of gimmicky bond funds of spending deferments to avoid angering either side. This has created a mountain of debt, and it is a Texas time bomb. For these three reasons of purity, he will be knocked out of the GOP race in the insane bracket finals by I believe, Michelle Bachmann.
But there is a danger I am wrong, and he could win, so let us examine that prospect. Because he has shown the willingness to moderate, he can seamlessly move to the middle. The President would be forced to slash and burn, to divide the country by calling out his extremism, and endanger himself of losing the moderate Christian vote, a very upsetting prospect with regard to swing state Catholics. Also, as Gov. Perry has funded health care, grants, and various other infrastructure projects, he has the opportunity to slip to the left of the President on what might be called, albeit simplistically, populist issues. This is not entirely fair, as Obama put forth progressive legislation that Blue Dogs watered down, but still. It would not take much, and that in and of itself should embarrass all good Dems. In a scenario where Perry could credibly point to jobs, infrastructure, and growth, yes, he is dangerous. He can even use his immigrant tuition funding to appeal to Latinos.
But, mostly Perry is dangerous because he does not speak in the tone of a Republican. He speaks in the tone of a conservadem from eras past. The dog whistle effect. It is a devastating political tool, one the the slick and styled Perry (think the combination of Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon) uses to masterful effect, and is his main advantage in the General. You can expect more of the "Democrats left me talk," words like compassion and dignity, Founding Fathers, and the like. A Perry candidacy and we sit here on election night waiting on two states, Iowa and more likely, Ohio for the victory, if it comes. Perry wipes out out any designs on the South, and jeopardizes N.C., VA, and Colorado, N.M., and as his calling card is jobs, Ohio. Should he be win the nomination you can almost guarantee Rubio will be his mate, and wave bye to Florida. This is disaster scenario one. The DANGER zone. A Perry candidacy and we are very likely replaying the nail biting of 2000.
However, for Obama to win he would only have to employ one thing, the truth. Perry represents no threat in the Kerry states, which for this purpose I declare to be our stronghold, and the President would only need to go to Ohio and fight back on Perry's jobs miracle, by driving home the fact that the jobs Perry has created are yours. YOURS.
As my friend Steve Loumeau likes to say, Right to Starve (work) states are ripping off jobs in union states, so the job growth is more cannibalism than anything else.
This scenario, however, is unlikely. The moneymen in the GOP are still more secular than anyone wants to admit, and the idea that a fiscal moderate but social conservative could win is improbable. In the end, the bracket breaks down into sane and insane, sane being Romney and Pawlenty/Huntsman, and Bachmann/Perry. In the purity challenge, Bachmann wins.
But as I believe it will come to pass, the rulers of the GOP will not want to commit mass suicide, and Mittens will be handed the nomination. Better to lose one election than an entire generation of influence, and discarded by the power, the Tea Party will revolt, and likely, sit out. My prediction is that we will be fortunate to have Barack to kick around for four more. And come election night, should I be wrong, and Perry is on the verge of winning, I want to see how many of you ideological purists on the left come on here and beg whatever God you believe in for Cleveland to come through. That is not a slam, it is just something I have learned from experience; the cocktail of fear and reality is a powerful elixir, and can make a ham sandwich taste like Chicken Piccata. It is ok. If that happens, you will have my open arms ready to welcome you. And because our President is a decent fella, he will welcome you back too.