8:32 AM PT:
OR-Gov: 2010 Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Dudley on whether he'll seek a rematch in 2014: "I don't know. It's a tough, tough deal on the family. Look, I'm going to be involved. But whether we actually run or not — it's hard to know." Unless we've entered a strange new phase of politics where we continually have back-and-forth wave years (possible!), I don't see how Dudley can hope to improve on his performance last year, when he fell just 1.5% short of victory.
9:08 AM PT: HI-Sen: A lengthy and very interesting piece by Adrienne LaFrance in Honolulu Civil Beat eviscerates a really misleading op-ed in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser which suggested Dem Sen. Dan Akaka was in failing health and that he ought to resign before his term is up next year. Akaka says he has no intention of stepping down early, and LaFrance's direct observations of the senator indicate he is active and hale.
9:19 AM PT: OR-01: Paraphrasing what appears to be a truly botched AP piece, state Rep. Katie Eyre Brewer says she won't seek the GOP nomination in the special election to replace David Wu. That leaves 2010 candidate Rob Cornilles as the only prominent Republican running.
9:37 AM PT: CT-Sen: I'm telling you, if it winds up being Shays vs. McMahon, I'm going to enjoy this primary. Just a day after Roll Call reported that Chris Shays was preparing to seek the GOP senate nomination, Greenwich Time says Linda McMahon is staffing up for a second run and has hired a campaign manager. (The dude in question initially said he was in fact working for McMahon, but clearly he cracked out of turn, because he later said he was just a "consultant" who had "talked to" McMahon.) Anyhow, this ought to be fun!
9:46 AM PT: OR-01: EMILY's List just gave their endorsement to state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici in the Democratic primary.
9:52 AM PT: WV-Gov: Republican nominee Bill Maloney's campaign manager is leaving just two months before electionday — but you know how I feel about these sort of tea leaves. The CM says a family member is ill, and that may well be the reason. What I haven't seen in any media reports, though, is an indication that there's a new chief ready to step in in his place. That usually signals "orderly transition" rather than "abrupt departure," but nothing is ever dispositive.
10:09 AM PT (David Jarman): CA-04, CA-07: Here's an interesting development out of California, where it's been generally assumed that Rep. Tom McClintock would stay in CA-04, a dark red district combining Sacramento exurbs with Sierra foothills, while Rep. Dan Lungren would stick with new CA-07, an increasingly-swingy Sacramento suburbs district similar to his current seat, CA-03. Now rumor has it that Lungren might instead challenge McClintock in the GOP primary in the 4th, the assumption being that the new 7th (approx. 53% Obama) is more Dem-friendly than the old 3rd... and that facing fellow GOPer McClintock in a primary would be an easier lift than a rematch with Dem Ami Bera, who was one of 2010's few Dem overperformers.
I'm not so sure that Lungren will fare well in that primary, though, since McClintock was a proto-teabagger before that was cool while Lungren is more of an establishment type... but if he does win, the spoils are much sweeter (a sinecure safe for another decade, instead of a swing seat that's likely to keep trending Dem). Lungren might play the 'carpetbagger' card against McClintock, but the irony is that Lungren himself also carpetbagged in from southern California a decade earlier than McClintock (adding to the irony: neither of them has a house in new CA-04; they both 'live' in new CA-07). At any rate, speculation is that if Lungren bails on CA-07, ex-Rep. Doug Ose (who lost the 2008 CA-04 GOP primary to McClintock) may try for another comeback in the 7th.
11:26 AM PT: NV-02: Kate Marshall's newest ad does exactly what I've been hoping for, and that is focus exclusively on her Republican opponent's praise for the Ryan plan. It's not the greatest ad ever, in my opinion, but it sticks to exactly one clear message, where the dividing lines between the parties could not be sharper. Check it out:
12:06 PM PT:
WI St. Sen.: Not like there was much doubt, but GOP state Sen. Dale Schultz affirmed he would not switch parties, saying: "I’m a life-long Republican, proud of our roots, and I plan to stay a Republican."
12:23 PM PT: KY-Gov: Well, this sure is odd. Two campaign managers for two Republican off-year gubernatorial elections leaving on the same day? The CM for David Williams in Kentucky is also quitting (after only being on the job since May), and in the campaign's statement on the change, they make no mention of a new hire taking his place. This comes hot on the heels of Bill Maloney's campaign manager bailing in the WV-Gov race.
12:55 PM PT: NY-09: A great post from Colin Campbell, who obtained additional cross-tabs from Siena's recent poll. (And props to Siena for generating the extra numbers.) Colin wanted to see how Jewish voters (who constituted 29% of the sample) broke down at a more granular level, to better gauge what proportion might be gettable for Republican Bob Turner, especially if Israel does wind up being a big issue here. Under what are probably the most optimistic projections, it looks like Turner could conceivably reach about half, so we're talking maybe 14-15% of the electorate overall. Democrat David Weprin led by only six, so that's considerable.
1:00 PM PT: NY-09: Speaking of the NY-09 special election, Bob Turner is out with his first add, and oof it's a nasty piece of work. No word on the size of the buy, though I'd be it's small — but the ad's vile nature ought to get Turner the buzz he's undoubtedly hoping for. Have a look yourself:
1:09 PM PT:
AR-02: Well, this is just gross. GOP freshman Tim Griffin handed out what he termed a "watch list" to town hall attendees that featured a dossier on six activists
from Florida who had attended some town halls held by their own congressman, Daniel Webster. The whole thing is very ugly and is designed to "insinuates that these Florida constituents are professional political operatives." In something out of the McCarthy era, the pamphlet exhorts the media to ask one of the Floridians:
"Are you or have you ever been, a leader, or a member, or a supporter of OrganizeNow.org, OrganizeFlorida.org, or Moveon.org (sic) or any other Progressive Left group?"
1:23 PM PT: MO-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder just released his first public statement in response to allegations that surfaced Tuesday from a former stripper who says Kinder took an unhealthy level of interest in her and mistreated her:
Like most people I am not proud of every place I have been but this woman's bizarre story is not true. The Democrats have tried to use these tactics against me in the past and they have failed. Jay Nixon may want to make up false stories about the past, but I, like most Missourians, remain focused on the issues that are important to Missourians like jobs and education. Under Jay Nixon’s leadership, Missouri ranked third-worst in terms of jobs losses in 2010 and nearly 50,000 fewer Missourians are employed now than when Jay Nixon took office. Today, Missouri’s unemployment is 8.8%, we are being out-performed by all but three of the states that border Missouri and more than 269,000 Missourians cannot find work. Our schools are failing, our families are hurting and I will remain focused on talking about the issues that will move Missouri forward.
Has this kind of pivot ever worked in the history of campaign politics? I mean, I guess there's nothing else for Kinder to say, but really, does he think this will get the media to drop the story?
1:30 PM PT: MA-Sen: The Hill says that Elizabeth Warren "is looking to make a decision after Labor Day on whether to challenge Sen. Scott Brown" and also notes that she put up a post on Blue Mass Group on the occasion of her return to Massachusetts from Washington, DC.
1:40 PM PT: WA-Gov: According to Sean Sullivan at the Hotline, Dem Jay Inslee raised over $600K for his gubernatorial bid in July, which looks like he's taken in about $1.1 mil so far. (This includes a $200K direct infusion from the state Democratic Party.) Republican Rob McKenna pulled in $340K in July (about $1 million to date) and has $660K in the bank. Not clear yet how much Inslee has in his warchest.
1:57 PM PT: WI-02: Dem state Sen. Jon Erpenbach, whose name had come up previously, says he "probably will" run for Rep. Tammy Baldwin's House seat, assuming she announces for the Senate after the final round of recalls are complete on Tuesday. Erpenbach is currently in DC "putting together a campaign team," according to Dave Catanese.
2:03 PM PT: WA-03: Well, that's one way to get your name out there: Vancouver, WA Mayor Tim Leavitt posted a cryptic three-word tweet that said nothing more than "Leavitt for Congress?" (with that question mark). It apparently caught the local political world off-guard, since Leavitt hadn't ever publicly said he was interested in running, and says he can't answer any questions until later in the day. But as Andrea Damewood of the Vancouver Columbian notes, he's been publicly feuding with GOP frosh Jamie Herera Beutler over local transit issues.
2:44 PM PT: CO-Gov: PPP has some Colorado miscellany. The highlight: Newly-elected Dem Gov. John Hickenlooper is quite popular — his 54-24 approvals are third-best among governors PPP has tested.
3:48 PM PT: WI Redistricting: Sort of like Boris Yeltsin resigning on New Year's Eve 1999, Scott Walker signed his state's new redistricting plans into law on Tuesday — i.e., recall day — which is why we're only getting around to mentioning it now.
3:53 PM PT: MI Redistricting: Ian Kullgren of Michigan State University's The State News says that that "[t]he Michigan Legislative Black Caucus already is planning to form a court challenge" to the state's new redistricting maps, both federal and legislative, which Gov. Rick Snyder recently signed into law.
3:59 PM PT: CA-31, CA-35: A couple of tidbits in Aaron Blake's take on the musical chairs prompted by California's new maps are new to us. First is that Dem Rep. Joe Baca, who represents the old 43rd but now lives in the new 31st, may instead run in the open (and heavily Hispanic) 35th. That could give GOPer David Dreier (old: 26, lives in: 32) an opening to run in the 31st instead. Dreier could also run in the new 26th, if fellow Republican Elton Gallegly decides to run elsewhere (or finally follow through on retiring). Aaron also speculates that Baca's son, former Assemblyman Joe Baca, Jr., could run in whichever seat pops decides to pass on.