Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D)
On this getaway edition of the weekend digest (by the time you read this, your intrepid weekend companion will already have arrived at his vacation destination), we will see a lot of data, as always. But, in a delicious non-poll nugget in the digest, you'll also learn why the gentleman to my right (that's Missouri's Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon) must be smiling pretty broadly.
The presidential election is a big story as well, as we get further evidence that July's "hot candidate of the month," Michele Bachmann, has already been kicked to the curb by a shinier and newer wingnut.
That, and two Wisconsin wingnuts got shown the door, as well.
All that (and quite a bit more) in the "getting my ass out of Dodge" edition of the weekend digest.
THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
NATIONAL POLLS: After a fairly quiet week of data last week (since everyone was busy polling "deal or no deal?"), the pollsters of America went back to looking at 2012 again this week. While the numbers were pretty widely varied (and had one shocker), two general themes emerged: Rick Perry is the new Michele Bachmann, and while the debt deal might have nicked the president's job approval, it does not appear to have done much damage to his trial heat numbers.
The lone exception to that theorem came at the end of the week, courtesy of the new CNN/Opinion Research poll. CNN was the only pollster this week to find a Republican leading the president. The incredibly surprising caveat? It was unannounced candidate (and unlikely entrant) Rudy Giuliani. According to CNN, Giuliani would hold a 51-45 lead over Obama were the election to be held today. Among candidates that are actual candidates, Obama held leads ranging from a single point (Romney) to 14 points (Palin). CNN also polled the GOP primary, and found an absolutely undefined field. Mitt Romney "led" with 17 percent of the vote, but four other candidates had at least 12 percent of the vote. They were Rick Perry (15 percent), followed by Rudy Giuliani, Sarah Palin and Ron Paul, all of whom had 12 percent of the vote.
Note the name that was not in the top five: Michele Bachmann. She was well behind in sixth place, with 7 percent of the vote.
Far more bullish on Obama's week was the crew at McClatchy/Marist. Their survey, which posted midweek, gave the president far more commanding leads, ranging from a 5-point edge over Romney and Giuliani to a dominant 21-point lead over Sarah Palin. Perry's status as the new anti-Mitt was cemented by this poll as well. McClatchy/Marist also polled the GOP primary, and found Perry running a strong second (18 percent) to Romney (21 percent). And where was the Newsweek cover girl, Mrs. Bachmann? Bachmann slid all the way down to fifth, at 8 percent of the vote.
Fox News didn't cover the general election trial heat, but their 2012 GOP primary numbers provided additional confirmation of the Bachmann swoon in the presence of Rick Perry. However, Perry (13 percent) still had a long way to go in the FNC poll to catch Romney, who had his biggest lead of the week here with 21 percent of the vote. Bachmann was in a tie for fourth place, back at 7 percent.
Bachmann's best performance was in this week's USA Today/Gallup poll, where she came in a reasonably strong fourth place with 13 percent of the vote. In the USAT/Gallup poll, however, she still trailed Romney (24 percent), Perry (17 percent) and Ron Paul (14 percent). The Gallup poll tested the president against the always-fearsome "generic Republican," and scored it Obama 49, Generic Republican 45. Not surprisingly, Rasmussen saw the Obama/Generic GOPer contest a bit differently. In their variation on the generic general election test, they gave the GOP a 3-point edge (46-43). Notably, that was actually the narrowest lead the House of Ras has blessed the GOP with since late June.
The final poll to report is the most anticlimatic: the internet-only YouGov poll continues onward with its traditional pattern: godawful approval numbers for the president (41/53), but leads over a pair of Republican candidates (+3 over Romney, +8 over Huntsman). And, to answer a possible question in advance: no, I don't know why they polled Huntsman, either.
IN THE STATES: As they have for most of the year, our polling partners at PPP contribute the bulk of the state-by-state polling this week. And, in doing so, they looked at two states that uniquely were Bush '04/Obama '08 states.
The first was their monthly trip into North Carolina. And in the must-have Tar Heel State, the president fared better this month than the last. Dead even with Mitt Romney in July, Obama now has moved into a 3-point lead over Romney (46-43). The balance of the GOP field, all of whom were within reasonable distances last month, now further afield. The margins now range from 8-13 points over the remainder of the Republican hopefuls.
Meanwhile, PPP took their first look in six months at the potentially pivotal state of Colorado. The verdict there: Obama's popularity has faded (46/50 job approval), but the GOP has faded even more. The net result: leads of between 7-16 points over the GOP field. This is a minimal difference from 2008, when Obama put this state away early against John McCain.
The lone good news for Michele Bachmann this week came at the state level, courtesy of a Rasmussen poll out of Iowa. The House of Ras found Bachmann still out in front in the Hawkeye State with 22 percent of the caucus vote. Her edge over Mitt Romney was a single point, but notably she was clearly ahead of Rick Perry, who ran a distant fourth at 12 percent of the vote (Ron Paul was at 16 percent).
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. SENATE
THE POLLS: The quietest polling week in recent memory on the Senate front, presumably because PPP happened to poll two states in which, curiously, neither of them have Senate contests in 2012.
Thus, the single poll to report this week is a slightly alarming look at the job approval for a Democrat seeking reelection in 2012. In New Jersey, freshman Sen. Robert Menendez is sitting on 38/33 job approval among registered voters, according to Monmouth. The cause for concern here is the fact that Menendez's +5 net approval was a substantial drop from May, when his net approval was +18.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Last week, the weekend digest included an item of considerable concern: a Democratic candidate threatening to run as an independent. What a difference a week makes. That candidate, Byron Georgiou of Nevada, decided this week to pack it in on his Senate bid. This clears the decks for Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley, who now has an open shot at GOP Sen. Dean Heller. Polls show the general election contest between the two to be very tight.
- Speaking of primaries, a potentially delicious one might be emerging in Connecticut. It could be a 2010 redux, as a "moderate"/establishment Republican will have to displace a well-funded conservative alternative. The conservative alternative is the same one as from 2010: pro wrestling magnate Linda McMahon, who is apparently staffing up for round #2. The "moderate" alternative is former longtime Rep. Chris Shays, who actually left the state after his 2008 reelection defeat. Now, apparently, he's back, making official this week something that had long been rumored—he will seek the Senate seat being opened up by the retiring Joe Lieberman.
- Speaking of potentially delicious mayhem on the GOP side, check out this shot across the bow in Michigan. Less than three weeks after former GOP Rep. Peter Hoekstra jumped in the Senate race, three prominent Republicans surfaced to pointedly endorse ... someone else. The three Republicans are former Sen. Spence Abraham, RNC committeeman (and '10 chair candidate) Saul Anuzis, and MI GOP kingmaker Betsy DeVos. Their choice? Clark Durant, best known for founding conservative charter schools in Michigan. Grab the popcorn, kids. GOP fratricide surrounds us.
THE RACE FOR THE U.S. HOUSE
THE POLLS: While we rarely have trial heat data this far out, this week is a notable exception. Siena looked ahead to September, when we have our next U.S. House special election in NY-09, the district abandoned by the resignation of Rep. Anthony Weiner (D). Conservatives immediately crowed at the results, as Democrat David Weprin held only a single-digit edge (48-42) over Republican Bob Turner. While the district has been electing Democrats since shortly after the Earth cooled, it is worth noting that it was one of John McCain's better districts in New York, as he ran well ahead of his statewide totals in the 9th.
Meanwhile, on a more macro-level, we rarely look at generic ballots in the weekend digest, but two stood out this week as potentially important indicators that the debt ceiling fight might be dinging one party more than the other. First, let's look at the new numbers from our polling partners at PPP. They found the Democrats staked to a seven-point lead on the generic ballot (47-40). If those numbers held, not only would it seem likely that the Democrats would gain significant seats in the House, it would make regaining the House at least a 50/50 proposition. It was the widest lead in 2011 for either party, according to all pollsters save for the House of Ras.
Speaking of the House of Ras, their generic ballot test for the Congress has habitually skewed well to the GOP side. Indeed, they offered double-digit leads for the Republicans on the eve of the 2010 midterms. As it happened, the GOP carried the House vote by just under seven points (51.5-44.8). That's what made Rasmussen's poll this week so intriguing. They had the GOP staked to a two-point lead (41-39) over the Democrats. This also tied the narrowest edge the Republicans have held in their polling in 2011.
The bottom line, it appears: The Republican swoon at the Congressional level is a very real thing.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- There was quite a bit of movement this week in the forthcoming special election in OR-01. It is looking increasingly likely that the GOP field will be cleared for last year's nominee, businessman Rob Cornilles. The latest Republican to demur was GOP state legislator Katie Eyre Brewer. Meanwhile, state senator Suzanne Bonamici earned the endorsement of EMILY's List.
- Democratic prospects of holding their most vulnerable open seat in OK-02 took a big hit this week, with the news that well-known former state senator Kenneth Corn had elected not to make a bid for Congress. In the wake of Brad Carson's decision not to run, it was universally assumed that Corn would make the bid. However, the recent passing of his mother caused Corn to reassess his priorities, and ultimately led to his decision not to run.
- Is it possible that the independent redistricting process in California might be claiming another incumbent? Midweek, the staffers for veteran Democratic Rep. Dennis Cardoza were decidedly ambiguous about his plans next year. The redistricting plan put forward by the commission put both Cardoza and fellow Democrat Jim Costa into the same district, the Merced-based CA-16.
THE RACE FOR THE STATE HOUSE(S)
THE POLLS: The big polls this week at the state level were actual polls, as voters headed to the polls in six Wisconsin districts in the recall elections of a sextet of GOP legislators. The Democrats came tantalizingly close to seizing the state senate, winning two recalls and coming within four points of winning the decisive third victory. While it was painful to come so close and not pull it all the way across the line, the Wisconsin GOP comically saw the pair of defeats as vindication for their scorched-earth policies in the Badger State. The good news: Undaunted, it looks like a proposed recall of Gov. Scott Walker is still on, apparently.
And ... don't forget ... Democrats have two recall elections of their own this coming week. On Tuesday, both Sen. Jim Holperin (SD-12) and Sen. Bob Wirch (SD-22) will try to fend off recall attempts by two Republican challengers.
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:
- Has there ever been a more compelling slow motion train wreck than Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder of Missouri. Already stung by revelations that he was fond of living high on the taxpayer's dime, he was hit this week with a revelation of a totally different kind. An article in the Riverfront Times chronicles Kinder's peculiar relationship with one Tammy Chapman, a former Penthouse Pet and stripper. Apparently, Kinder was smitten with the young Chapman back in the day, and frequented the club at which she performed (actually "stalked" might be a more appropriate phrase for it). Then, having made a chance encounter with Chapman while she tended bar last winter, the couple chatted amicably for a few minutes. In the course of that brief discussion, Chapman noted she was looking for a new apartment. Whereupon Kinder asked if she wanted to move in with him in his nearby condo. On Thursday, Kinder offered a fairly unimpressive denial.
- In Montana, it had been assumed for a while that the open-seat battle would boil down on the Democratic side to a showdown between attorney general Steve Bullock and Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger. Perhaps not: In an interview over last weekend, Bohlinger seemed to concede that a bid for governor would be impractical. Bohlinger was a lifelong Republican before agreeing to be Brian Schweitzer's running mate, thus making a successful primary bid a particular challenge.
- This isn't always the sign of a campaign in distress, but it is rarely the sign of a campaign on the rise, either. Two of the Republicans seeking governorships this year found themselves hunting for new campaign managers after resignations this week. Both David Williams of Kentucky and Bill Maloney of West Virginia lost their campaign chiefs this week.