It has been a while since Libya has been in the news. As you may remember, the US and Nato intervened to stop Qaddafi from winning. News from there fell off the front pages in the last weeks for obvious reasons.
Nevertheless, it is worth reminding ourselves that while our economic troubles concern all of us, and with good reason, historians may write about 2011 as another of those rare years (1789, 1848, 1968, 1989) where the ancien regeme that appeared so powerful all at once disintegrates. History tells us to be cautious: these revolts fail as often as they succeed. But today’s news from Libya comes on the heels of dramatic events in Syria where protests continue, and indeed appear to be rising despite increasingly brutal repression.
From the New York Times:
With unexpected swiftness, the ill-trained and ill-equipped rebels from the western mountains this week overtook much of the strategic coastal town of Zawiyah, with its enormous oil refinery, just 30 miles west of Tripoli. By Friday they had also taken Gharyan, an important outpost along the trade route to the south. Qaddafi troops had concentrated in both towns, and their retreat in the face of the amateurish rebels raised new doubts about the loyalist forces’ will and cohesion.
As a result of those victories, most of the main roads that had supplied Tripoli have been closed. The city’s residents, accustomed to soaring food prices, weeklong waits for gas and long electrical blackouts, say they are now coping with a crime wave and uncollected garbage.
Snip…
Residents and officials of the Qaddafi government said the NATO assault on Tripoli reached a new peak this week as bombs rained down on Colonel Qaddafi’s compound and the palatial home of his intelligence chief and brother-in-law, Abdullah Senussi.
The Times has a quote from a US Intelligence Official who suggests there is great uncertainty about what is actually happening on the ground. Nonetheless, the recent rebel advances are surprising.
It is easy to get depressed about the political situation both here and in Europe, as it seems the forces of austerity are on the march. It is worth remember that in another part of the world opposition to repressive regimes has been effectively maintained in the face of severe repression.
8:44 PM PT: From the comments (JPMasser)
Go here for a great battle map of the situation:
http://www.twitpic.com/...
The blogger writes that the map is required to understand the situation, and he is right.
8:49 PM PT: More from the Guardian:
Muammar Gaddafi's 41-year grip on power in Libya looked more precarious than ever on Friday night, as rebel forces advanced on the capital from three directions after breaking out of the once-besieged town of Misrata.
With rebels taking control of the coastal town of Zlitan in the east, those in the west claimed to have made progress clearing out the last pro-Gaddafi troops from Zawiyah, 30 miles west of Tripoli. They now have the main coastal road under pressure on both sides of the capital and also under threat from the Nafusa mountains.
Gaddafi's army outside Tripoli is trapped in a series of besieged and shrinking enclaves, with rebels controlling more than two thirds of the country. And as the stranglehold on the capital tightens, plans are being made to evacuate the last remaining foreign workers by sea.
11:49 PM PT: Some updates from the comments:
1. gchaucer2 notes the BBC the heavy casualties the rebels are taking. It is worth remembering that the rebels are facing tanks – and they have no similar weapons, though they do have NATO air support. The Guardian link also mentions heavy rebel casualties.
2. CNN has some additional reporting on the rumors that Qaddafi may be leaving - some pro and some con. It also has this chilling part:
We believe he could be planning for a last stand," one U.S. official said.
A second U.S. official confirmed a similar concern and said the Gadhafi plan could involve a final military offensive against civilians, launched from his last major strongholds around the Libyan capital.
The officials, who have knowledge of the situation on the ground, did not want to be named because of the sensitive intelligence matters.
Sat Aug 20, 2011 at 8:50 AM PT: We Won suggests reading Juan Cole which is good advice. He writes this morning:
The rebel forces are racking up an impressive series of wins, decisively taking Zlitan, Surman and Brega on Friday into Saturday morning. Qaddafi is increasingly surrounded and cut off from fuel and other supplies. NATO has visited substantial attrition on his heavy weaponry and armor, which he had used to attack his own people. Dissidents in the towns surrounding Tripoli and in the capital itself are reportedly beginning to take heart and to plan their own uprisings and guerrilla actions. Zlitan was taken with the help of rebels within the city, e.g. I was struck, on seeing Aljazeera’s on the scene footage from the center of Zlitan, by how the victorious rebels spoke of themselves as the conquering “youth.” And they did look young, just teenagers or early 20s. That is the answer to the question often asked abroad, about who the rebels are. This is a youth revolution above all. They are a cross-section of the country’s young people.
In a further sign of the times, former Qaddafi no. 2, Abdel Salam Jalloud, fled Tripoli for Zintan and defected to the rebel side. Jalloud was one of the makers of the 1969 coup in which Col. Qaddafi came to power. NATO continued its bombardment of command and control centers and weapons depots in Tripoli, from which plans have been being made to attack dissident civilian populations. Among the targets taken out was the compound of intelligence chief Abdullah al-Sanoussi, one of the chief planners of the state terror against Libyan civilians pursued by the regime for the past six months.
Sat Aug 20, 2011 at 8:56 AM PT: The Guardian reports another high level defection from his regime.
Sat Aug 20, 2011 at 9:07 AM PT: Veroki has a great description of our media:
CNN's ticker has the following:
"rebels move closer to tripoli and Kim kardashian's wedding".. What?