Heading into the final days of the special election for New York’s 9th Congressional District seat, Republican Robert Turner has taken a 50-44 percent lead over Democrat David Weprin, according to a Siena (College) Research Institute poll of likely 9th CD voters released today. In Siena College’s previous poll on August 10th Weprin had led Turner 48-42 percent.
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“While Turner has an overwhelming 90-6 percent lead among Republicans, Weprin has only a 63-32 percent lead among Democrats, and Turner has a 38-point lead among likely independent voters,” Greenberg said. “Currently, Turner enjoys a slightly larger lead among independent voters than Weprin has with Democrats. Weprin needs to find a way to win a larger share of Democratic and independent voters if he’s going to turn the race back around in the final days.”
http://www.siena.edu/...
This, combined with word from Tom Jensen that Weprin is in trouble after the first day of PPP's polling, shows that there is a better than even chance that Democrats will lose this seat.
http://politicalwire.com/...
Is that a disaster? Not really. They can simply swap NY-9 for the upstate seat the Dems won in NY-26 as part of New York's redistricting. Also, NY-9 contains a large community of Bukharian Jews (Uzabeki Jews) who tend to be orthodox and insulated, and tend to vote as a bloc.
http://www.haaretz.com/...
When it comes to Israel, they're voting habits tend to mirror those in a west bank settlement. They want to hand Obama a black eye for daring to stray, even in the slightest, from the policies of the Netanyahu government. He has a 43-54 fav/unfav in the district. These are conditions unlikely to be repeated in other districts.