Public Policy Polling (PDF). 9/8-11. MoE ±3.9%. Likely voters (8/18-21 results):
Kate Marshall (D): 37 (42)
Mark Amodei (R): 50 (43)
Timothy Fasano (AI): 4 (3)
Helmuth Lehmann (I): 4 (3)
Undecided: 5 (8)
Not a whole lot left to say about this race, except maybe it would have been nice if the DCCC had spent the money it was "saving" by not spending here a little earlier in NY-09. Unlike in that contest, though, we are seeing confirmation of an enthusiasm gap in Nevada's 2nd CD:
The second big thing that has changed is who's planning to come out and vote on Tuesday. On the first poll 48% of those surveyed reported having voted for Barack Obama in 2008, almost identical to the 49% of the vote he received in the district. Now only 43% of those planning to vote in the election self-report having voted for Obama, an indication that an enthusiasm gap has developed and Republicans are more likely to turn out than Democrats. That's something that's already been seen in the early voting numbers for the race.
Not that you typically ever want to read a whole lot into special elections, but bizarrely, an enthusiasm gap constitutes "good news." It at least means there are gettable Democratic voters sitting on the sidelines here, which is better than the situation in NY-09, where a non-trivial contingent of Obama voters have actually switched sides. Either way, though, there's just not a lot to be excited about for either of tomorrow night's special elections.