Sorry to add yet another Maryland gerrymander to the cluster that dominated the Daily Kos Elections bar this past week, but with the Maryland legislature looking to pick the new maps pretty soon (and two new potential maps released), I figure I might as well do this before it becomes a "what could have been" map. I addressed criticism of my last map (which only had 7 safe Dem seats and one swing seat), took some ideas from others, and tried to make the best 8-0 map that obeys these rules:
1) Do not divide the Eastern Shore. It seems Maryland might be considering it based on Option 2 above, but it's really not critical to the gerrymander and everyone seems to consider it unlikely.
2) Do not connect the Eastern Shore to Baltimore City. That idea was raised earlier (and a few 8-0 maps depend on it) but apparently Baltimore City politicians reacted extremely negatively. They would prefer to stay in one of the districts that already reaches into Baltimore City (mostly MD-07 and MD-03).
3) Try to keep all six Democratic incumbents happy. This is the hardest part by far, as they don't live in "optimal" locations and furthermore, probably want to keep most of their current territory, and as such, would react angrily to being dumped into a mostly new district, even if it is still safely Democratic. As we have seen in California, scrambled districts invite a ton of primary challengers, regardless of how popular or wealthy the incumbent is.
I would have added a fourth rule about making the lines look pretty but there's really no point considering how unusual the current districts look, and how Maryland itself is arranged geographically. I tried not to go full baconmander, and to respect county lines when I could, but the previous three rules take precedence.
I started by focusing on unpacking the two majority African-American seats to grab the maximum number of ultra-conservative precincts, while being balanced out with only precincts with the highest percentages of African-Americans. This allows the overall African-American percentage to remain over 50%, while still keeping the Obama number lower and allowing that loss of Democratic performance to move to nearby districts. As such, I avoided precincts with high numbers of other minorities besides African-Americans, or majority white precincts that had decent Democratic performance. Once done, I focused on getting the two GOP-to-Dem districts optimized, then on working in everything else.
MD-01 (Dark Blue): Andy Harris (R). Again, Harris' home north of Baltimore City is drawn out but he's too damn stubborn to go anywhere else. I sent a tendril across from the Eastern Shore to grab Annapolis, then to head west and fork off into two tails, one to grab Columbia, the other to grab some precincts in eastern Prince George's County. End result, this is a district Harris cannot win. It may be swingy in 2010-like years, but I feel confident about our long-term prospects here. 55% Obama, 44% McCain (old 40% Obama, 58% McCain). Done without going into Baltimore City, or right up against DC, and without splitting the Eastern Shore.
MD-02 (Green): Dutch Ruppersberger (D). Why must his current district be so ugly? Oh well, there's really no way to "fix it" without pissing him off so he maintains most of his current population centers. The most significant change I made was curling his district around further to grab Ellicott City, and dropping a bit of conservative areas east of Baltimore City. But he should be satisfied with his district mostly keeping it's current shape. Obama 57%, McCain 41% (old Obama 60%, McCain 38%). It's a few ticks redder but considering how easily he was re-elected last year he should be able to handle it.
MD-03 (Purple): John Sarbanes (D). The other horrific district. Again, I held my nose and drew a district he should be happy with. The most significant change is the loss of Annapolis to the 1st district but he has most everything else. His district also takes up a bit more of Baltimore City to make population and allow MD-07 to go further outside. Obama 57%, McCain 41% (old Obama 59%, McCain 39%). A couple points redder but again well within his ability to handle.
MD-04 (Red): Donna Edwards (D). This district unpacks significantly. Starting with her base in Prince George's County, it instead moves up north to eat conservative white precincts in Howard and Carroll Counties. A ton of new territory, but with so few Democratic centers there that she should have no fear of a primary challenger. By dropping the Montgomery County portions she probably is actually shored up in the Dem electorate. Obama 77%, McCain 22% (old Obama 87%, McCain 14%). 53% African-American (57% old map). Edwards had previously indicated she would be okay with taking on some GOP voters, so I hope this isn't too much!
MD-05 (Yellow): Steny Hoyer (D). As the big dog in the delegation, he gets the most similar district to his old one. He keeps all the swingy territory in South Maryland (but he is popular with them), as well as the arm that goes north to grab College Park and Greenbelt to improve overall Dem numbers. The only real change is the small tendril MD-01 makes into it to grab some precincts in Prince George's County. Obama 61%, McCain 37% (old Obama 65%, McCain 33%). A bit redder, but Hoyer will never be seriously challenged here, as he is strong even in the swingy areas. And I think he would be understanding if it helps bring back his buddy Frank Kratovil.
MD-06 (Brown): Roscoe Bartlett (R). The consensus is that Bartlett retires if he's given a D+ anything seat, so this should be safe no matter who the GOP candidate is. Drops the arm all the way across north Maryland, and instead goes south into Montgomery along the I-270. This should favor a Democrat from either this area or from Frederick (an island of blue in an overall red county). And long-term, this area is only getting more Democratic. Obama 58%, McCain 41% (old Obama 40%, McCain 58%).
MD-07 (Cyan): Elijah Cummings (D). This will be the tough sell. Currently MD-07 kind of balloons out the west side of Baltimore City into Howard County, taking some conservative voters at the tip but mostly wasting Dem performance in the middle. Instead I had this district send out arms south (to grab conservative portions of Anne Arundel County), and north (to grab ultra red parts of Baltimore and Harford Counties). This basically all comes from MD-01 and as such is critical to flipping that district. As option 2 in the recently released proposals has this district doing the north arm, I hope this is not too controversial. Obama 65%, McCain 34% (old Obama 79%, McCain 20%). 51% African-American (59% old map). If Cummings accepts this he would be a real team player, and still completely safe from defeat by any Republican or other Democrat (as none of the new territory is likely to provide much Dem primary voters).
MD-08 (Slate Blue): Chris Van Hollen (D). He drops a bunch of Montgomery County, picks up a bit from MD-04, and then shoots out north to eat red precincts in Frederick and Washington Counties. Again, no real threat to him, either from a Republican or another Democrat (as the Dem hubs in Hagerstown and Frederick are kept in MD-06). He should be the easiest sell of the entire delegation (after Hoyer) on this map or one like it. Obama 66%, McCain 32% (old Obama 74%, McCain 25%). A significant drop, but his district had become too packed with Democrats over the past 10 years to be necessary anymore in its current form. It probably didn't even need to be this blue but I closed off a lot of Democrats to the west when MD-04 bisected the state.
So that's that. It looks terrible, but not significantly worse than the current map. And based on the truly egregious GOP gerrymanders in Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas, we wouldn't be in the wrong here. At 58% Obama and 55% Obama, the two formerly GOP seats are about as blue as they can get without destroying the rest of the map. Should be 8-0 even in bad years for us.