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Leading Off:

NY-19: State Sen. Greg Ball, whom we previously reported was refusing to rule out a primary challenge to fellow Republican Rep. Nan Hayworth, is sounding even more randy now:

Sen. Greg Ball refused during a CapTon interview last night to rule out the possibility that he might primary his fellow Republican, Rep. Nan Hayworth, insisting that while he has no immediate plans to do so, her performance is “making it awfully difficult” for him to pass up a challenge next fall.

“Not at this point, but she’s making it awfully difficult,” Ball told me when I pressed him on 2012. “We have people in our district, like famers and small business owners and families that need access to federal funding, and instead of fighting for the people of our district, she’s taking orders from (House Speaker John) Boehner or (Majority Leader Eric) Cantor, depending on the last person she met in the hallway of Congress, but at this point I’m intently focused on these issues.”

Ball sounds practically like a populist progressive! (Though this is hardly the right district for that kind of message.) And note, he's no "moderate"—though he definitely has a reputation for being a thumb-in-your-eye maverick. The other quotes from him in the linked article are in a similar vein, but I particularly liked this contrast he offered between his background and Hayworth's: "I grew up the blue-collar son of a postal worker, probably some of my family were cutting grass on her family’s property.” Ouch!

3Q Fundraising:

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D): $230K raised, $350K cash-on-hand

MI-Sen: Well, wouldya look at that. Republican ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra, known for perennially weak fundraising, managed to pull a million-dollar rabbit out of his hat this quarter. No word on his cash-on-hand, though.

NM-Sen: Rep. Martin Heinrich (D): $650K raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand

TX-35: Joaquin Castro (D): $475K raised, plus $40K self-loan; Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) says he will not release numbers in advance of the Oct. 15 filing deadline

WA-??: Denny Heck (D): $125K raised, $360K cash-on-hand

WA-01: Steve Hobbs (D): $55K raised in two months (the conservaDem Hobbs is a state senator, so this is a deeply feeble haul)

WI-01: Rep. Paul Ryan (R): $629K raised, $4.3 million cash-on-hand

Senate:

FL-Sen, NE-Sen: It's a tale of two Nelsons, as PPP releases back-to-back polls on Nebraska's Ben and Florida's Bill. Check out our post at Daily Kos Elections for the complete run-down on both races.

Gubernatorial:

MA-Gov: The most interesting numbers by far from PPP's bit of Mass. miscellany are Gov. Deval Patrick's job approvals. In January of 2010, PPP found him at an unthinkably awful 22-59. Now, despite a bruising campaign and a still-sour economy, he's found a way to bounce back remarkably, all the way to 51-40. Quite an unlikely resurrection, and one which other pols are undoubtedly eager to study.

NC-Gov: PPP tested some possible alternatives to Dem Gov. Bev Perdue but finds that, despite her weak approvals and what Tom almost poetically describes as "the weight of three years governing the state during a tough economy" on her back, no one really does a great deal better. Perdue's currently down 47-42 to former Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, but almost everyone else trails, too. Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton is at 46-32, state Rep. Bill Faison (who already ruled out a run) is at 45-30, state AG Roy Cooper is at 42-39. Two-time Senate candidate Erskine Bowles does manage a 42-42 tie. I also tend to doubt any of these guys will actually primary Perdue, who leads Faison 62-18 in a stillborn hypothetical.

VA-Gov: Even though it's two years out, the Virginia Republican Party just voted in favor of selecting their 2013 gubernatorial nominee via primary rather than convention. This suits Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, who prefers the primary method; it would likely help him blunt the advantages that AG Ken Cuccinelli, a darling of movement conservatives, would have among the activist base. (Recall that in 2008, GOP convention goers very nearly derailed former Gov. Jim Gilmore's path to the nomination, picking him by less than 1% over nutbag state Del. Bob Marshall. In retrospect, though, Gilmore probably wishes he'd lost.)

WV-Gov: One particularly interesting detail leaped out from a DGA post-mortem memo on the race:

From day one, the DGA knew that this would be a challenging race. We budgeted accordingly and stuck to our budget. In total, we spent $1.8 million on television advertising in the state—every dime of which targeted West Virginia voters.

In contrast, the RGA spent $3.6 million on television advertisements, including a last minute $800,000 buy in the Washington, DC market. Their buy generated a lot of attention, but little in the way of results. For $800,000, the RGA was only able to buy 300 points (1/3 of what is needed to penetrate a market) and reached just 12.8% of West Virginians.

Meanwhile, Bill Maloney, the loser of Tuesday night's affair, says he is "weeks and months" away from deciding whether to try again next year. The GOP dream candidate is Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, but I'd be surprised if she ran. Beyond her, they don't have a lot of good options left—an example of the problems Republicans face in what is still an ancestrally Democratic state (meaning most local office holders are Dems). Finally, Greg Giroux has a spreadsheet comparing Earl Ray Tomblin's performance to Joe Manchin's last year; one thing you'll notice is Tomblin's outsize performance in the southern part of the state, his coal-country base.

House:

CA-16: Republican businessman Case Lawrence says he won't run against Dem Rep. Jim Costa. Apparently no one else is either, at the moment.

IL-01: Odd, but okay. Donald Peloquin, the Republican mayor of the ironically named Blue Island (pop. 23K), says he plans to challenge Rep. Bobby Rush. If this district (81% Obama) goes GOP, start investing in starships, because the world as we know it will be at an end.

IL-02: Ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson just announced that she will indeed challenge Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr. in the Democratic primary.

IL-08: Republicans are starting to show some interest in the 8th District race, even though it's been drawn as a decidedly blue seat and will yield a heavyweight Democratic nominee regardless of who emerges from the primary (either Raja Krishnamoorthi or Tammy Duckworth). Still, Elk Grove Village Mayor Craig Johnson says he'll announce a decision soon, and DuPage County Superintendent of Education Darlene Ruscitti is also reportedly looking at a run. One GOPer has backed out, though: state Rep. David Harris, who says he'll seek re-election instead. Also potentially in the mix are Assistant DuPage County States Attorney Rick Veenstra, businessman Andrew Palomo, and conservative activist Rich Evens.

IL-13: Greene County State's Attorney Matt Goetten, who had been considering the race since August, says he will not run for Congress. That leaves ex-state Rep. Jay Hoffman as the most prominent Democrat in the race, though he'll face physician David Gill and retired educator James Gray in the primary. The winner gets to take on GOP Rep. Tim Johnson.

FL-08, IL-17: So it looks like EMILY's List has adopted the NRCC's clever (but boring) strategy of using multiple tiers of endorsements, so that they can get two press hits for every candidate they elevate to their top rung. The latest to make it to the "recommended" level are Val Demings in FL-08 and Cheri Bustos in IL-17… but I think we're going to have to stop keeping track of the "on the list" candidates, since life's just too short.

NC-02: Given her lack of professional polish, you sort of expect GOP freshman Renee Ellmers to go off-message now and again. But on this topic?

One of North Carolina's Tea Party favorites has surprised Republicans by saying she won't vote for a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage proposed in her state because it goes too far. […]

"As a voter, she would vote against a piece of legislation that would add a ban on civil unions to the protection of marriage since they are two different issues and should be dealt with separately," spokesman Tom Doheny told the newspaper.

Doheny said Ellmers remains against same-sex marriage, but "she finds nothing wrong" with civil unions.

As one commenter more or less put it, North Carolina Republicans must be thinking, "We gerrymandered your ass into a safe district, and now this is what you do for us?" Ahh, this kind of thing is always fun.

NC-11: Two more candidates are joining the GOP field vying to take on Rep. Heath Shuler: Real estate investor Mark Meadows and businessman Vance Patterson. This run-down (and punch-line) amused me:

Also expected to be on the ballot for the Republican primary in May are Spence Campbell, a retired U.S. Army intelligence officer from Hendersonville; Dan Eichenbaum, an ophthalmologist from Murphy; District Attorney Jeff Hunt of Brevard; and Chris Petrella, an economic development consultant from Spindale.

"What a variety," Patterson said. "Boy, you talk about having a choice this time." He then added with a chuckle, "I tell people, ‘If we had a farmer and a poet, we could hail Atlantis.'"

A reference to this… song (at around 1:18).

NE-02: Looks like we're going to have a primary on our hands for the right to take on GOP Rep. Lee Terry. State Sen. Gwen Howard is set to announce her campaign kickoff, joining fellow Democrat John Ewing, the Douglas County Treasurer who has been running since July. The primary is next May.

NY-10: Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries finally pulled the trigger and filed paperwork to run against Rep. Ed Towns in the Democratic primary. Jeffries had been eyeing a run since forever, and it looked like he might wait until forever, too (or at least, some cycle in the future). But it seems like he's actually going to do it now. Towns has been primaried many times before but has always survived, at least once because a split field of challengers let him walk away with a plurality. Jeffries may be able to avoid that fate, but who knows what lunatic NYC Councilman Charles Barron might do.

OR-01: EMILY's List commissioned a survey from Democratic pollster Grove Insight, and unsurprisingly, it shows their preferred candidate leading. State Sen. Suzanne Bonamici leads state Rep. Brad Witt and Labor Commissioner Brad Avakian 34 to 10 to 8, respectively. The all-mail primary is just a month away, though as Jessica Taylor at The Hotline notes, ballots will go out starting Oct. 21. So far, Bonamici is the only candidate on the air, and this is also the only poll we've seen of the race. (Avakian released an internal long ago, when ex-Rep. David Wu was still planning to run for re-election.)

WI-08: This seems like a pretty good get for Democrats: Consultant Jamie Wall, who ran in the primary when this seat was open in 2006, says he plans to try once more and will challenge GOP freshman Reid Ribble. In his prior run, Wall came in second place to now ex-Rep. Steve Kagen by a 48-29, and managed to raise about $690K, including around $100K from himself. (Nancy Nusbaum, who ran against GOP state Sen. Rob Cowles in the recall elections earlier this year, finished third with 23%.)

Other Races:

MO-LG: Former state Auditor and current Missouri Democratic Party chair Susan Montee has filed paperwork to run for lieutenant governor. I mention this only because the open LG job was seen a possible escape hatch for Rep. Russ Carnahan, who of course got hosed in redistricting. That now seems unlikely, given Montee's entrance into the race.

Redistricting Roundup:

AZ Redistricting: A reader from Arizona writes in with some interesting insights about the state's new map:

Schweikert will be running in the Scottsdale/North Phoenix CD-6, according to the preeminent local Republican blogger, who himself is a former Republican legislator who frequently says on his blog was best man at Schweikert's wedding. This makes a lot of sense, as Schweikert is a former Scottsdale state legislator and Maricopa County Treasurer, neither of which do him much good in the new CD-4.

Quayle would then have the option of facing Schweikert in a primary (while Quayle would have a money advantage, Schweikert has been in and out of elected office in Scottsdale since at least the early '90s), or facing off against a deep bench of ambitious Republican talent in the new CD-9, who may or may not hesitate to primary Quayle (Quayle's only saving grace is his money advantage, but it's worth remembering that he won his primary in 2010 by a very small and very, very narrow plurality.) Some Republican names I've heard talked about, for what it's worth, are Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman and State Senator Adam Driggs, a longtime state legislator from Phoenix's Arcadia area, which is wholly encompassed by the district, and who also is the son of former Phoenix Mayor John Driggs. Also, for what it's worth, I heard Quayle currently lives in CD-9.

Furthermore, everyone seems to think Sinema will run in the new CD-9. Other names circulating in the rumor mill include former congressman/former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell and CD-3 Democratic nominee Jon Hulburd (although I'm unclear if he lives in the new CD-9 at the end of the day).

Also, don't expect anyone going into the new CD-5; that's already a battle royale between former Congressman Matt Salmon, who represented much of the East Valley in the '90s until honoring his Contract with America term limits pledge (Salmon is also a former GOP gubernatorial nominee and party chair) and State House Speaker Kirk Adams, who is a young up-and-comer.

Indeed, the expected Schweikert-Quayle primary battle is confirmed by news reports. Schweikert's already announced he'll run in AZ-06, and Quayle is expected to do the same. This is, needless to say, terrific news for Democrats.

MD Redistricting: A gubernatorial panel just recommended a map to Gov. Martin O'Malley, one that bears a strong resemblance to the "Option 1" plan revealed late last week. Unfortunately, that's by far the inferior of the two maps that were under consideration, but the good news is that this suggestion is purely advisory. O'Malley gets to submit the map to the legislature, but they are free to ignore it.

UT Redistricting: Ah yes. It's been a while since we've seen one of these, but Utah's efforts at redistricting have now officially derailed. It's no surprise if you read our item in the previous digest, but it's still always a little bit amusing when a party that controls the trifecta bogs down in a morass of its own making. In an attempt to get out of the muck, the legislature has adjourned until Oct. 17, but the state House speaker says they're "not close" to reaching an agreement with their fellow Republican counterparts in the Senate. The Senate President, meanwhile, is grousing that the House is engaged in a "complete rewrite" of the plan the Senate already passed. For what it's worth, Democrats call the House map "diabolical" but say they wouldn't sue if the Senate map passes. Anyhow, we'll see what the GOP comes up with in a couple of weeks.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Economic progressive populism is favored now. (4+ / 0-)

    Look at the polls and support for the Buffet Rule, etc.

    They know if they want to win they have to play to the left this time.

    At least the semi smart ones do.

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 05:18:32 AM PDT

  •  VA State Senate: the ad wars have started (4+ / 0-)

    I saw my first ad of the campaign season, a hit piece on Sen. John Miller that was basically "taxes taxes taxes taxes taxes!!!11". Paid for by the Republican Party of Virginia, which tells me that Mickey Chohany still doesn't have much money and they're desperate to win this seat for him, particularly because it was on during Hawaii Five-0, so they were willing to pay for a prime-time broadcast TV ad in the Hampton Roads media market. I really wonder about the efficiency of running ads in smaller races like this, since SD-01 only covers about 200,000 people, which is a pretty small fraction of the number of people in this media market.

  •  AZ could be 5-4 Dem (7+ / 0-)

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    If they take the open seat and Kirkpatrick wins in the 1st.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 05:49:48 AM PDT

  •  Jay Hoffman may switch to IL-12 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Now that Costello will retire.

    “If you think I can be bought for five thousand dollars, I'm offended." Rick Perry.

    by Paleo on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 05:51:50 AM PDT

  •  NC-Gov - Bev needs to take a strong stand (6+ / 0-)

    against the marriage amendment. She's down 47-42, but the amendment is opposed 55-39. I don't know what she's waiting on.

    "I am going to do something later this week," Perdue told reporters after a speech at the Marbles Big Idea Forum in Raleigh. "I'm working with the constituency groups, as you would expect me to do. I am making a lot of calls. My team is talking. I've known all along where I stand. I've tried to go back and talk to people about my position, and you will hear it very quickly."

    According to legislative Republicans, Perdue played a role in changing the date of the referendum from the November 2012 election to the May primary so it would be less likely to hurt Democratic candidates.

    http://www.newsobserver.com/...

    Moving it to May might protect Dems in November, but it also makes the amendment more likely to pass during a low turnout primary.

    "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by bear83 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 05:55:14 AM PDT

    •  That was my impression as well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, dc1000

      "Moving it to May might protect Dems in November, but it also makes the amendment more likely to pass during a low turnout primary."

    •  Don't forget, (0+ / 0-)

      it'll be harder for the Dem's to get enough no votes on it for multiple reasons.

      Of of the main ones, at least to me would be that the primary is squarely in the middle of Finals for like 90% of colleges. So college students will be to busy focusing on studying, that the amendment will largely slip by, un-noticed by them, until they're done a week or so later.

      I'll be voting of course, but most college students aren't political junkies like others and myself on here are. So they really have no clue what's going on, at least with things like this.

      DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

      by aggou on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:03:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  NC still has early voting 2 weeks prior (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        to Election Day, including one stop registration and voting at the same time during the early voting period. There's really no excuse for not voting.

        "Here is my principle: Taxes shall be levied according to ability to pay. That is the only American principle." Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by bear83 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:14:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, but like myself (0+ / 0-)

          they're preparing you weeks in advance for it. I really believe it'll go largely unchecked by most college students.

          I think it'll come down to mainly the activists on both sides deciding this.

          DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

          by aggou on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:23:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  idk dude (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen

            Most college students I know get more amped about gay rights than about politics in general.

            21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

            by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 01:17:22 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I guess we'll just have to wait.... (0+ / 0-)

              and see. That's the only thing I hate about politics, is the waiting....

              DKE! “Music speaks what cannot be expressed, soothes the mind and gives it rest, heals the heart and makes it whole, flows from heaven to the soul.” anonymous

              by aggou on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 02:18:48 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I find that very surprising, but in good ways. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I've been out of college for a few years now, and while I heard the usual traces of homophobia that were both legitimate and those that were just for show (i.e. the usual tough guy crap) both in and after college, most people just don't care. As in, they really, truly don't give a shit. Even those who make the lame jokes about one of their friends being gay don't have a problem with it.

              Yet, at the same time, I figured that this tolerance didn't always extend to an activist-like attitude. In other words, people may be supportive of gay marriage, but it wouldn't motivate them to do anything about it. You're telling I'm wrong, it seems, and if that's true, I'm very happy to be wrong.

  •  AZ-Sen: This was written (4+ / 0-)

    4 days ago so I don't know if it's still the case, but Carmona has said he is struggling on whether or not he will run. He seems to be holding out some glimmer of hope that Gabby Giffords might be able to run herself. At least that's what I take from it.

    http://azstarnet.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:02:38 AM PDT

  •  AZ: Also I found this small article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AZ Independent

    about a gala the Pinal County Democrats are holding. Felecia Rotellini will be their guest speaker.

    "This is a great opportunity to hear Felecia Rotellini." said Joe Robison, Chair of the Pinal County. "Felecia Rotellini is a favorite to run for state wide office in Arizona and has an excellent and extensive record of public service in Arizona.”
     

    Maybe she's planning on running against Tom Horne in 2014?

    http://www.goldcanyontoday.com/...

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:05:04 AM PDT

  •  I don't think Ball sounds like a populist (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, NYWheeler, jncca, MichaelNY

    progressive. Certainly not the progressive part anyway. Like most reps he's in favor of bringing money home to the district, which Hayworth isn't (she said she wasn't during the campaign, anyone who voted for her doesn't have the right to bitch). He's more blue collar then the last few people who have repped NY 19 but he's more about disagreeing with whoever in the Republican party is in his way. He's still a major conservative and one of the original tea partiers.

    The guy plans to be Governor/President someday and he'll do anything to climb the ladder.

    Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

    by tigercourse on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:39:15 AM PDT

    •  Two different things (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      The Populist vs. Elitist axis is orthogonal to Progressive vs. Conservative

      social democrat (with a small d) the point of politics is policy not power

      by octaviuz on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:42:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  exactly (0+ / 0-)

        obama and sherrod brown are both progressives, but obama is an elitist and sherrod brown is a populist.

        18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:38:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I know (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY

    the Wisconsin Dems were bullish on taking down Paul Ryan. However, with 4.3 million in the bank its doubtful this race will even be competitive.

    WV-1, Male, 22, SSP: buff2011 Elect Ed Case Sen. and Reelect Sen. Ben Nelson

    by buff2011 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:42:10 AM PDT

  •  Any More Info on OR-1? (0+ / 0-)

    A selfish interest drives my query.

    Friends and colleagues more "dialed-in" than I to the Portland business community, and who lean red, are quietly confident that the GOP will take this seat.

    The dearth of local news on contours of this race is disturbing.  The race for Mayor seems to have vacuumed-up all of the local press' political reporting resources.

  •  Jesse Jackson Jr. seems pretty ripe for taking. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimball Cross

    So does Bobby Rush, actually, but it would have to be in the Dem primary.

    Ideology is an excuse to ignore common sense.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:48:12 AM PDT

  •  Halvorson? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I see you have an item where Halvorson is going to challenge Jesse Jackson, Jr.  Any idea what her voting record was while in Congress?  The only thing I can find are her votes supporting "supplemental" spending on the Mideast wars.  Jackson, on the other hand, did vote for a supplemental in 2009, but usually voted against the war funding, and was one of the few who voted to strip all Afghanistan funding from one bill.

    I suppose if you want to keep burning money on war, she's your candidate.  I'll have to keep an eye on this one.  I certainly don't want one of the few (mostly) anti-war Representatives to get kicked out.

    I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

    by tle on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:55:39 AM PDT

    •  She represented an R+1 district before (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      presumably she'd move to the left to win the primary in an 80% Obama district.

      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

      by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:58:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And that's a good thing? (0+ / 0-)

        Voters who believe that campaign speeches override the actual votes are, IMO, living in a fools paradise.  When there's a record, I say use it to make your decisions.  Screw me once, shame on you, ...

        I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

        by tle on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 12:02:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  jesse jackson junior (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      has ethical issues halvorson doesn't have, but they are both liberals

      18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:40:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Guess it depends on your definition (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        Certainly, many liberals have been war hawks.  I suppose that's why I try to ignore the labels, and look at what they've actually done.

        I don't know about Jackson's "ethical issues", but I know that I'm more interested in the, to me, highly unethical issue of waging war for obscene reasons.

        I am become Man, the destroyer of worlds

        by tle on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:49:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  fair enough (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          i prefer an ethical congress since I'm paying their salaries, but it's certainly valid to care about the candidates' positions more than their ethics

          18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 12:01:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The second rule of politics (6+ / 0-)

    is "don't mismanage a natural disaster".

    Witness Bush and Katrina.

    Deval Patrick did very well during the Springfield tornado and Boston water outage - he remained calm, kept people calm, and got things done. That gave him my vote again even though I'm still flabbergasted by his casino gambling support.

    (The first rule of politics is, of course, "don't piss off Dan Savage" . )

    The thing about quotes on the internet is you cannot confirm their validity. ~Abraham Lincoln

    by raboof on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 06:57:11 AM PDT

  •  Greg Ball Bah! (6+ / 0-)

    Don't be fooled by Greg Ball. He's a teabagger of the hardcore variety. It will be an interesting fight if he decides to take on Hayworth, because they're both handpicked proteges of Roger Ailes - who lives in this county and owns all our media.

  •  Stu Rothenberg's electoral college math (6+ / 0-)

    http://www.rollcall.com/...

    I know Obama is in trouble but a lot of this seems quite premature. Obama has no chance in Ohio? Minnesota a tossup?? Virginia leaning towards Romney as well. Obama an underdog in Colorado?? I think Tom Jensen could potentially disagree with this due to the fact his poll show Romney either trailing or tied in most of these places. Just assuming that if Romney gets the nomination these places are automatically locked up for him seems to be a bit of a stretch.

    If you look at one of Stu Rothenbergs early articles go back to March 2006. "Rothenberg Touts His Favorite Candidates So Far"

    http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/...

    "Finally, Sharron Angle (R) of Nevada, isn’t as dynamic as some candidates, but I must admit that I was impressed with her cool confidence and determination, as well as with her understanding of politics."-Stu Rothenberg

    That being said, his ratings and analysis are usually very good, but its clear when he is having an off day.

    •  yeah, like his "Republicans got screwed in AZ" (5+ / 0-)

      stuff.

      4 out of 9 safe seats is getting screwed? Yeeeaaahhh.....

      I lost my house because of Wall Street's greed- they sold it for 30% instead of helping me out. #occupywallstreet - We are the 99%!

      by AZ Independent on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:50:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That fact that he thinks Minnesota's a tossup (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, itskevin, MichaelNY

      must be some kind of joke. There has been literally no indication that it'l even be competitive.

      •  It's a Safe Bet It Will Be..... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        .....if the race is tied nationally, it's hard to imagine Obama mopping up in Minnesota.  I'd give him odds here, but if they can credibly sell Willard as a moderate he'll do well in the second-ring suburbs which determine the winners and losers of Minnesota elections.

        •  Minnesota voted for Dukakis, Gore, Kerry, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

          and Carter for re-election. Obama won Minnesota easily after McCain had his convention here and fought to make it competitive. We are a blue state and Obama's "no drama" attitude fits Minnesota perfectly. Plus, we have one of the country's highest turnout rates and election-day registration. He's going to win comfortably here.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:49:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm Inclined To Agree But..... (0+ / 0-)

            ....until evidence to the contrary emerges, I hold that we need to be viewed as a swing state.

            •  I think until evidence points (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

              to the contrary, it needs to be considered at least lean D state. To much history to go back on.

              19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 10:07:08 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I can't believe how terrible my grammer is today. (0+ / 0-)

                I want to preface that I got no sleep last night, but I did finish three papers!

                19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 10:12:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  That's absurd. That's like saying until (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              licorice114, SaoMagnifico

              evidence to the contrary emerges New Jersey is a swing state. Minnesota is just as blue as New Jersey.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 10:10:14 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  idk about that (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                jncca

                New Jersey: 53-46 Kerry, 57-42 Obama
                Minnesota: 51-48 Kerry, 54-44 Obama

                NJ senators: both D since 1982
                MN senators: both D since 2008

                21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 10:41:06 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  That's a pretty limited comparison. (0+ / 0-)

                  Also, there was a pretty freak occurrence that caused one of the Dem Senate seats to flip. Paul Wellstone was killed right before the election and we had to have Mondale sub in at the last minute.

                  You could also look at -

                  Current Governor - NJ - R; MN - D

                  Last time the state voted for the Republican Presidential Ticket:

                  MN - 1972
                  NJ - 1988

                  I'd say both state are both equally blue states and will be safe for Obama in 2012.

                  President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                  by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:50:00 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  1972 Is Irrelevant..... (0+ / 0-)

                    ....in the modern Minnesota which came 8,000 votes away from electing Tom Emmer Governor.    Recent close contests in Minnesota, combined with Obama's inherent weakness, warrant "tossup" status for the state until a cohort of polls are released that suggest otherwise.

                    •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

                      if we were looking at history, then WV would be a blue state because it voted for Dukakis.

                      As for governors, before Dayton (who barely won) Minnesota hadn't elected a Democratic governor for two decades. Its record is very similar to New Jersey's there, actually.

                      21, male, RI-01 (voting) IL-01 (college), hopeless Swingnut

                      by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 01:23:06 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  The Governor's race was close because it (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      was a 3-way race. It wouldn't have been that close with a 2-way race.

                      MN is not a toss-up state.

                      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

                      by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 02:24:34 PM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

    •  Most Questionable Is His Analysis of Ohio.... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      .....Willard's background as a guy who makes jobs go away is gonna look pretty familiar to Ohioans....and not in a good way.  Then again, I would have said before last year that Willard would have had no chance in Ohio until they elected Bush's outsourcing czar to the Senate in a 20-point landslide.  Still, I continue to say if Obama is to win this election, he will win it with Ohio.  The Colorado-Virginia upscale suburban strategy just doesn't jive with his current populist tone.

      •  Obama will push very hard for Ohio (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, itskevin, MichaelNY

        though I'm not sure it will be the sole make or break state.  I think he has more paths to victory without it than do the Republicans (I'll go out on a limb here and predict that the historical factoid of no Republican ever winning the presidency without Ohio will not change next year.)

        And while last year's Senate election there isn't an encouraging guidepost, Obama isn't Lee Fisher.  He won't be out of money for months and effectively concede the state early as a result.

        •  Florida will be tough 4 Obama (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, askew, jncca, itskevin

          I agree with that. The state has been a pain in the ass for democrats for a very long time. In addition, when democrats do manage to win it, they under perform their poll numbers. Obama won it by less than 3% and that was in one of the best years possible for democrats.

          Ohio is much more of a tossup then Rothenberg is willing to admit. Kerry managed to get 49% here in a republican leaning year and democrats have been posting better statewide totals then usual. While Sherrod Brown's success there had a lot due to the year, booting an incumbent with 56% usually does not happen. The state is moving towards democrats and right now no candidates has an advantage in it.

          Calling Minnesota a tossup is laughable. I think the last time the state voted R was Nixon. In addition, Dayton, Klobuchar, and Franken, very progressive politicians post very good approvals here.

          Colorado has also been very good to democrats. This is a state similar to Nevada where democrats over perform their poll numbers. Claiming the high number of independents there make Obama an underdog is risky because many of those indies act like soft democrats. Even money would be a better term here.

          Lastly lumping New Mexico, a 57% Obama state into the tossup column this early is premature. Obama will probably not be getting 57% here and a lot of the 57% had to do with the D wave. However, not enough evidence has surfaced yet that Obama is in enough trouble that it shifts from being a 15% margin to a tie.

          Lots of problems here.

          •  According to PPP in NC 46 Obama 45 Romney (5+ / 0-)

            http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

            disregard the poll, Rothenberg says Obama will most certainly lose North Carolina

          •  The Minnesota of the 1970s is Nothing Like..... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Inoljt

            .....the Minnesota of 2011.  A state that was once full of blue collar union workers and populist left-wing farmers in the Humphrey era is now a state of white-collar suburbanites.  It's still left of center, but it's also more receptive to those marketed as "moderate" Republicans.  If Willard makes that image stick, his chances in a state like Minnesota are decent.  I would definitely include Minnesota on a list of swing states at this stage.

            I agree with you on Florida though.  Even if we assume Rubio's dismissal of being the nominee's running mate holds, I have zero confidence in Florida given the hostility of seniors towards Obama, and this would seem especially true of the kinds of seniors who move to Florida to avoid paying state taxes.  He should go all in with Florida early on, but it shouldn't be THE swing state of 2012.  If Obama is winning Florida in this political climate, he's already getting more than 300 electoral votes nationwide and won't need it anyway.  Most disagreed with me on this when I posted it before though.

            Also agreed on Nevada.  Democrats always seem to do better than the polls suggest here.

            •  Minnesota is certainly not that receptive to (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, itskevin, MichaelNY

              moderate Republicans. Pawlenty ran as a moderate and barely won in a 3-way race. Mark Kennedy was a moderate Republican and got his clocked cleaned by Amy Klobuchar. Norm Coleman ran as a moderate Republican for relection and got beat by liberal Al Franken.

              Romney is not the kind of politician that will do well in Minnesota statewide. He's too slick. We don't like our politicians slick or mean. Obama fits the state really well.  He is low-key, no-drama and "nice", which is what Minnesota (and Iowa) like.

              President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

              by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:55:21 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  It's not... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, itskevin, MichaelNY

          There are a whole range of ways Obama can get to 270.

          The most likely path is to keep the mountain west states in your corner (CO, NV, NM), keep PA and IA blue, and then win any one of NH, OH, FL, VA, or NC to win the Presidency.

          The simplest way would be to simply win Florida.  It becomes almost impossible for Republicans to win without Florida.  Win Florida, and we can lose all the mountain west states plus OH, VA, NC, NH, and IA.  Still need PA to stay blue.

    •  The media has tried to paint Minnesota (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, itskevin, MichaelNY

      as a toss-up in the last 3 Presidential races even though we have the longest history of any state voting for the Dem Presidential candidate. It's not a toss-up.

      And VA and CO being lean GOP is absurd. He seems to be desperately searching for an excuse to push the media's favorite meme "Obama is dooommmmeed!!"

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:46:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rubbish (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, itskevin, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      “I am a man of fixed and unbending principles, the first of which is to be flexible at all times.” Everett Dirksen (R-IL)

      by conspiracy on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 10:20:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Stu just pulled all that out of his ass (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, jncca, MichaelNY

        There is nothing sourced there, he just made it up off his own superficial impressions.

        And he obviously doesn't follow any polling at all.

        He can't claim to cite internals or insider chatter, because we're too far from the election for any of that to exist for any state that's competitive.

        OH, FL, VA and NC do not lean toward Romney, those are straight tossups as of now and looking ahead, and Stu is literally just making it up to say otherwise.

        43, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and a boy, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:09:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, Rothenberg is pretty good, but... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27, jncca, itskevin, MichaelNY

      don't forget this column (from April, 2009):

      Over the past couple of weeks, at least three Republicans — House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Va.), former Speaker Newt Gingrich (Ga.) and campaign consultant Tony Marsh — have raised the possibility of the G.O.P. winning back the House of Representatives next year.

      That idea is lunacy and ought to be put to rest immediately.

      None of the three actually predicted that Republicans would gain the 40 seats that they need for a majority, but all three held out hope that that’s possible. It isn’t.

      [...] There are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not “close to zero.” Not “slight” or “small.” Zero.

      He's had his off moments.

  •  What Kind of Map Can We Expect Out of WA..... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    7-3 Democrats?

  •  What is Greg Ball thinking? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, MichaelNY

    As a Republican candidate, he is supposed to wait until after the primary to sound sane.

    A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward.- Franklin D. Roosevelt

    by shoeless on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:27:36 AM PDT

  •  Is Tempe/West Mesa going to be in the new 5th (0+ / 0-)

    or is it going to be in the 9th?

    Number 1 thing I do not want to hear: "Are you satisfied" (uttered by Chuck Todd).

    by AZphilosopher on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:36:14 AM PDT

  •  Arkansas' 3rd Dist Cong Race heating up... (4+ / 0-)

    A race against a GOP back-bencher is building steam.  Ken Aden (D) Ark, announced 1 Sept and is beginning to gain attention.  Considered a no-brainer for the State and National GOP, the District has been 'Red' for over 40 years.  Bill Clinton lost his first political race in this District.

    Aden, a Iraq/Afghan War 82nd Airborne veteran, is causing fireworks.  Considering that the incumbent, Steve Womack (R) AR is busy alienating Seniors with his vote on the Ryan Budget, Hispanics with his 'English as Official Language' position and his long known hositity toward Hispanics; he also met with reps from the Postal Workers Union recently and told them, basically, to 'buzz-off.'  His 70% vote total in '10 may be in danger.

    Aden, a 33 year old Arkansas native, is going after Womack 'hammer and tongs.'  The State internet blogs are buzzing with posts regarding this race.

    Get your popcorn!  It will be interesting to watch a Green Beret paratrooper mount a political offensive against a 'well entrenched foe.'  Considering that Aden, a former SSGT, actually served in Womack's Guard Battalion for two years and is well aware of his lack of leadership skills, it may not just be 'political' but 'personal.'

    Personally, I wouldn't want a combat veteran Green Beret coming after me, unless it was to have a beer with me.

    wwwhttp://aden4arkansas.com/

    bluearkansasblog has some stories on recent fireworks in the 3rd.

    wwwhttp://bluearkansasblog.com/

    Rise Up! Still not thy voice - Slack not thy hand! http://thebumpkinphilosopher.blogspot.com/

    by Arkieboy on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:38:45 AM PDT

  •  Morning DKE folks- (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

    I have a post up re: yesterday's AIRC meeting

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    All in all, what I came for went extremely well. It was what happened outside of the meeting that has made my blood boil.

    I lost my house because of Wall Street's greed- they sold it for 30% instead of helping me out. #occupywallstreet - We are the 99%!

    by AZ Independent on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:47:49 AM PDT

  •  We need to amend the constitution to move the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    licorice114

    Presidential election up to the first Tuesday in August. The nomination process is getting too long.

    And maybe Congressional elections too.

    For relevant sci-fi and fantasy, go to http://www.betty-cross-author.net/

    by Kimball Cross on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:57:56 AM PDT

  •  George Will is such an Academic! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 07:59:10 AM PDT

  •  MA-SEN (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades, askew, itskevin

    Haha, Elizabeth Warren's ugly: http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    What an asshole. I guess the name calling part of the season's already begun...

  •  Which is the new district of D Hynes? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Would be IL-01? IL-03?

    I think he will not run but just curious about it.

    •  I think he'll go statewide if anything (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Probably go for Governor or AG in 2014 or Senate in 2014 (if Durbin retires) or 2016.

      He lives in the new IL-5 too--I see no reason why he would primary Quigley.

      •  Thank you, just curious (0+ / 0-)

        No reason like you tell.

        I was looking at some potential candidate between former federal or statewide officers. But all that are in the future D+ districts are in office or running for something this cycle except D Hynes and A Giannoulias.

        We have the chance of see S Simon for IL-12. I would like.

        •  already responded to you. (0+ / 0-)

          simon is a terrible fit for this district.

          18, D, new CA-18 (home) new CA-13 (college). Economic liberal, social libertarian, fiscal conservative. Put your age and CD here :) -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 11:48:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  IA-05: Christie Vilsack raised $330,000 (10+ / 0-)

    19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:34:31 AM PDT

  •  Greg Ball needs to stfu about Hayworth (0+ / 0-)

    SHe grew up in Munster, Indiana. I don't know how many of you have been to Munster, but it indicates that she came from a blue collar, working class background. He can NOT play that card against her.

    17, R, IL-10. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

    by IllinoyedR on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:39:41 AM PDT

    •  Actually, no it doesn't. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      My step sister lives in Munster. It's the wealthiest town in Lake county. There are a lot of affluent people living there.

      19, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus, male, Dem, (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:43:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Even working-class towns (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      have rich people.  But more to the point, he absolutely can play that card against her even if it's not true--she's a well-educated doctor in a rich district, so it's going to be something that people believe easily.  He might be wrong, he might be a jerk, but that doesn't make it an ineffective play.

      26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:44:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Greg Ball's method of campaigning (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      is to play the victim. There are always grand conspiracies and "dirty pool" attacks against him. There are mostly just other people pointing out what a schmuck he is, but it's a tact that seems to work for him. So if he does run, we will see a lot more of it.

      Hillary Clinton's Liberal Ranking http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/8/10/122232/619

      by tigercourse on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:45:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well (4+ / 0-)

      She went to Princeton undergrad, so that certainly "indicates" exactly the opposite. Point being, I wouldn't infer too much about a candidate's upbringing based on a line or two in their Wikipedia profile.

      Political Director, Daily Kos

      by David Nir on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:46:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So did Sonia Sotomayor (0+ / 0-)

        But you're certainly right that the Princeton part has more resonance than the Munster part, which is what's politically relevant.

        26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:48:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Her family (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          My comment was a response to his comment on her family. It was about her family's financial status during her childhood, not where she went to college.

          17, R, IL-10. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

          by IllinoyedR on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:54:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, I get that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, jncca, MichaelNY

            But my point is that, in part because she went to Princeton, I think that people are going to believe her family was rich whether or not it's true.  Again, according to J. Bernstein, in at least some polls people thought that Bill Clinton(!) grew up wealthy, probably because of how elite his career was after it (or perhaps people believe it about nearly every politician).  If I'm giving Ball moral advice and if he's wrong or lying about her family, then I'd agree with you.  If I'm giving Ball political advice, well, then that's a different calculus.

            26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:57:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Princeton (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY

        That just means that she was ambitious and smart.

        If she was from my area of Northfield or Glencoe or Winnetka or Kenilworth, IL and went to Princeton, that would be different.

        17, R, IL-10. RockRibbedR on RedRacingHorses.

        by IllinoyedR on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 08:53:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  FWIW (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          You might be right about Hayworth's family, although I'm also pretty skeptical of stories like these from politicians:

          Her father, an accountant, grew up in Ohio.  Her mother emigrated from England in 1948, having served in the British Army Auxiliary Territorial Service.  Nan graduated from Munster High School in 1977 and worked summers in a steel mill to help pay for college.

          Somehow they all seem to have worked summers in steel mills or whatever.  But it could be true!  I'm just in a cynical mood.
          http://hayworth.house.gov/...

          26, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-12(now)

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:14:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  They probably all did work in steel mills or (0+ / 0-)

            something similar.

            America is a much richer and more well educated country, and probably less blue collar, in every single way now than it was decades ago, despite the problems we have now. Despite that, however, only about 30 percent of people have a Bachelor's degree and many don't have that much in total assets. And even the more well off people have their kids work to help them pay for stuff.

            My point is, it wouldn't surprise me that in less prosperous time, a lot of people had to do do hard labor-type work to pay the bills.

            •  The US is a lot poorer than it was (0+ / 0-)

              in the 1950s-1970s. I don't know where you're getting the idea that the reverse is true. Maybe the GNP is greater now, but average disposable income in current dollars is clearly less on average. And the reason we're more educated is that, while you used to be able to get a good skilled position at GM or Ford or a steel mill with just a high school diploma, you now need a Bachelor's degree for almost any decent job, and that's no guarantee of anything, either.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Oct 08, 2011 at 11:18:00 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well, first, I misread the original comment. I (0+ / 0-)

                read the original comment from Xenocrypt as saying Hayworth's parents worked in a steel mill rather than Hayworth herself.

                As far as what Hayworth did during the summer, perhaps working in a steel mill was like waiting tables or landscaping or something back then.

                Anyway, I think you are wrong about the rest because you are talking about distribution rather than the size of the pie. I agree that there's been a concentration of income gains wealth at the top in recent decades, but overall, we are still a wealthier country than we were decades ago. And even if we've been treading water since the end of the 1970s, which is certainly a problem, it's not as if we've been cascading downwards.

                Where did you get the claim that average disposable income is less now than it was in previous decades, by the way? It's not that it's completely unbelievable, of course, but it's the sort of thing that needs a citation. I can see your point about  Bachelor's degrees, however.

                Anyway, hopefully, in the next few weeks, I'll release a diary on the main page about reforming the tax system. There's quite a bit I don't know about this stuff, and while I am trying to learn, it's difficult. Perhaps what I am proposing is basically impossible, not politically so much as economically, but the goal is to shift the burden of financing the government upwards, while encouraging savings and investing. I'm trying to reconfigure the system so that the people earning relatively small incomes will be able to build wealth even though they don't make that much. I'm thinking of the people that earn, say, $40,000 a year with two kids, who if they are given a better chance to make the right choices will in fact do so. I hope you have the chance to read it because we often disagree but, I think, are pretty similar when it comes to value judgements.

                •  I don't really mean the average income (0+ / 0-)

                  which would include the top 1%. I'm talking about the lack of good jobs, and that's really a well-known fact that doesn't require a citation, in my opinion. Nothing has substituted for the flight of skilled blue-collar jobs overseas. An average person did better from the 50s to 70s than now, even if the average income, including the top 1%, is higher now.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Mon Oct 10, 2011 at 12:37:38 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  But then, are we really poorer? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    It seems like you are dancing around the obvious point that the distribution is messed up, which is decidedly different than saying we are looking at a smaller pie.

                    One of the most simple yet decisive sentences I've read in some time was from Felix Salmon, the Reuters financial blogger, who said to me that the returns to capital have far outpaced the returns to labor over the last few decades. That makes sense to me. And if it's true, I'd say that the solution is to work on the distribution, first and foremost by making sure those at the bottom who currently lack assets have more of a chance to acquire them.

    •  What!? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Rep. Hayworth was on "The Munsters"?

      Democrat, OR-01 native, Swingnut for life, and keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:52:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Has anyone seen tietack around recently? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I don't think I've seen him since I got back.

  •  I actually live in NY19. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    The message is fine, despite Ball's history as a raving xenophobe.

    Oh, there you are, Perry. -Phineas -SLB-

    by boran2 on Thu Oct 06, 2011 at 09:56:08 AM PDT

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