I'm pretty sure we're going to fill the DKE sidebar to bursting with Maryland diaries, and this will be the third I've contributed in as many days. But it's so much fun!
I decided to draw a 7-0-1 this time, leaving a district winnable for a moderate-to-conservative Democrat like Frank Kratovil or James Mathias while having seven safe districts for liberal Democrats elsewhere in the state. I tend to err on the side of caution with Eastern Shore districts, as a number of the conservatives there who voted for Kratovil tend to prefer Republicans in all but Democratic wave years.
I stuck with the default color scheme this time.
MD-01 (blue): Rep. Andy Harris (R) - 47.1% Obama, 51.2% McCain
This is a district that Harris might hang on in, but he might lose. Average Democratic performance here is 49.2% against an average Republican performance of 50.8%, and with someone like Kratovil or Mathias even just slightly overperforming the average, this district could certainly flip. It gets many of its Democrats in Baltimore County, which has considerably fewer black legislators who could raise a fuss than does Prince George's County. Thus, I think this is a more realistic option for a swing district than an Eastern Shore district that extends into Bowie or Laurel.
MD-02 (green): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D) - 60.1% Obama, 37.9% McCain
This district doesn't have a ton of overlap with Ruppersberger's current district, but it includes areas that should be friendly to him, like eastern Howard County and parts of northern Prince George's County. Its Democratic performance is a slight improvement over the current numbers, and it should be solid for Ruppersberger in both the primary and the general, though it's conceivable the district's next representative could come from Howard County. I don't think there's enough of a base in Prince George's County for a Democrat from Laurel to realistically compete.
MD-03 (purple): Rep. John Sarbanes (D) - 58% Obama, 39.9% McCain
It's hard to draw a better district for Sarbanes, long thought to covet a statewide office, than this one, which includes lots of familiar, safe territory, and also allows him to introduce himself to some new voters in reddish parts of Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties. I've seen more Democratic districts drawn for Sarbanes, but he's safe for reelection here even in a Republican wave, considering then-Sen. Barack Obama won here in 2008 by nearly 20 points.
MD-07 (gray): Rep. Elijah Cummings (D) - 67.5% Obama, 31% McCain [50.9% black-majority VAP]
I'm skipping a bit here because of Maryland's dumb district numbering system, but Cummings gets a district that isn't quite as black or blue as on previous maps I've drawn, but will hopefully be happy with anyway. He doesn't actually give up many black precincts in Baltimore City, but he gets hardly any of the heavily black suburbs in Baltimore County, dropping his black percentage a bit, and many of the whites he takes in are in virulently conservative Harford County, dropping his Obama percentage a bit, but also making him very safe in a primary. I don't know if Cummings would love this, but he has no rational reason not to.
MD-04 (red): Rep. Donna Edwards (D) - 75.1% Obama, 23.8% McCain [52.3% black-majority VAP]
This district was drawn on the assumption that Edwards is more pissed about losing Montgomery County and having to take in a bunch of unfamiliar Democrats elsewhere in Prince George's County and in northwestern Anne Arundel County than she is about having her district's black percentage dropped (which I've tried very hard to minimize). It might be that she'd just find something else to balk at no matter what her district looks like in redistricting, but this gives her very little new territory that could originate an intraparty challenge, and black Democrats should still comprise a hefty majority in the primary election.
MD-05 (gold): Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) - 64.4% Obama, 34.3% McCain
Hoyer gets a district that is just narrowly white-majority in total population (50.1% white), reflecting Southern Maryland's seismic shift in demographics. It's tailor-made for the House minority whip, arguably the most powerful politician in Maryland, but it has a decent chance of electing a black Democrat to succeed him. This district also helps boost Ruppersberger's Obama percentage by cracking some of the conservative Annapolis exurbs like Odenton and Crofton. Hoyer can certainly survive it, as he has the bluest non-VRA district in the state.
MD-06 (teal): OPEN - 61% Obama, 37.4% McCain
Though this district may look like it provides a good opportunity for a Western Maryland Democrat to be elected, the large majority of its Democrats (and voters) are in Montgomery County. It throws the ruby-red Panhandle into a district that wraps around the northwestern D.C. suburbs and includes well-heeled communities in Bethesda, as well as comparatively hardscrabble areas like Aspen Hill and Glenmont. It's safe for whichever Democrat is the nominee, and whoever it is can probably just write off everywhere in the district outside of Montgomery County.
MD-08 (slate blue) - Reps. Roscoe Bartlett (R) and Chris Van Hollen (D) - 62% Obama, 36.4% McCain
This district isn't as blue as Van Hollen's current district, owing to its inclusion of light-blue Frederick and Hagerstown (as well as the surrounding rural turf of Frederick and Washington counties) at the expense of a few dark-blue D.C. suburbs, but it's bluer than the one on Gov. Martin O'Malley's submitted proposal. Van Hollen should be satisfied here, as should prospective successor Robert Garagiola, as should Western Maryland Democrats who still have a glimmer of hope that they could elect one of their own once Van Hollen retires in order to move up the food chain. Bartlett lives here, and he might try to make a run of it, but he's really screwed. Van Hollen would probably take him out 65-33 or so.
Thoughts on the map?