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Leading Off:

MA-Sen: This amazing photo isn't from an Obama campaign rally in 2008. No, it's from an Elizabeth Warren volunteer meeting last night in Framingham, Mass. (courtesy ndrwmls10):

Elizabeth Warren volunteer meeting
The Warren campaign has several more of these events planned throughout the state over the next few weeks; click here to see where and to sign up. And maybe you'll see Newton Mayor Setti Warren at one of `em: The former Senate candidate, who dropped out of the race last month, just endorsed Elizabeth Warren.

And maybe, eventually, Alan Khazei, too. The non-profit founder just became the third Democrat to drop out of the race since Elizabeth Warren's entry, and like Setti Warren and Bob Massie before him, he specifically cited her presence the race as being a completely game-changer for him. Unlike the others, Khazei had initially said he would stay in the contest, but obviously that's no longer the case. He also did not immediately endorse Warren either.


OH-Sen: A new poll from Quinnipiac comes up with very different findings from PPP's recent survey. Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown has similar numbers (49 vs. PPP's 48), but Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel has made no progress. In fact, he's fallen from 36 to 34! (PPP showed him moving from 33 to 40.) We'll bring you a full post on this, plus the presidential numbers, later today.

TX-Sen, FL-Sen: In light of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's fabrications about his family's departure from Cuba, the Dallas Morning News decided to take close look at how Republican Senate candidate Ted Cruz has described his own father's exodus from the island. On many occasions, Cruz has suggested—and allowed others to suggest—that his dad fled from the Castro regime. But not quite: Rafael Cruz fought on the same side as Fidel Castro and came to the U.S. in 1957, two years before Castro took power. We'll see, though, if Cruz takes any lumps for helping to perpetuate his own familial myth.

And speaking of Rubio, he's tried to claim a measure of Castro-related suffering for his family (even though his parents left three years before Fidel booted Batista), saying his folks later wanted to return to Cuba but couldn't because of Castro's oppressive regime. The truth of the matter, according to the St. Petersburg Times:

On May 18, 1956, Mario and Oriales Rubio walked into the American Consulate in Havana and applied for immigrant visas. The form asked how long they intended to stay in the United States.

"Permanently," Mr. Rubio answered.


KY-Gov: A desperate last-minute attack ad from Republican David Williams targets not Gov. Steve Beshear but his running mate, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson. I think DrPhillips is on to something when he suggests the spot may be trying to dog whistle. Abramson is Jewish, and right after one actor says "Those boys have got a lot of nerve," the other immediately responds, "First Obama, now Abramson." See for yourself:

WI-Gov: PPP has a new poll out on a possible recall of GOP Gov. Scott Walker, testing a whole bunch of possible candidates against him. Click the link for our complete rundown at Daily Kos Elections.


AZ-04: As soon as Arizona's redistricting commission released its draft map early this month, we suggested that GOP Rep. Paul Gosar might want to run in the new 4th CD rather than the 1st. The 1st District contains more of his current constituents (as well as his home), but the 4th is much redder and contains no incumbents. Now the Arizona Yellow Sheet says that Gosar is taking our advice and reportedly going house-hunting in the 4th… but it may not be smooth sailing for him in the primary even if he does switch districts. That's because earlier this week, Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu created an exploratory committee to look at a run in the 4th, too. So look out for the battle of the Pauls.

CA-08: As expected, Victorville City Councilwoman Angela Valles has launched a campaign for Congress in the redrawn 8th CD. Unlike a lot of other Republicans who have been eyeing the race, she says she is "in no matter what" GOP Rep. Jerry Lewis decides to do. (Lewis might run here, or in the 31st, or might retire, but he still hasn't announced his intentions—and you have to wonder if his hesitancy is starting to create some self-inflicted wounds.) Also, former Hesperia City Councilman Bill Jensen says he plans to run for the Republican nod as well.

IA-02: The NRCC is running yet another one of those tiny-buy ads (Politico says $11K) against Dem Rep. Dave Loebsack, but what I find notable is that they are striking the exact same theme as a new Crossroads ad that's also running in Iowa against another Dem, Rep. Leonard Boswell. Once again, they're trying to equate Obama's jobs bill to the 2009 stimulus. Since the jobs bill is never going to pass, I doubt this line of attack will be as effective, but if it intimidates Democrats into simply not talking about what the government can do to help the employment picture, then that will count as a Republican success.

MA-01: Dem Rep. John Olver, contrary to months of public statements (including some as recently as this week), just announced yesterday afternoon that he will retire at the end of his term. This solves a big problem for Massachusetts Democrats, which we discuss in greater detail in our full post at Daily Kos Elections.

MD-04: Wow, it looks like Donna Edwards really will have a serious primary on her hands—and soon. Just the other day we mentioned former Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey, a Democrat who had considered a run against Edwards last cycle but ultimately declined. We hadn't heard much from him this year, but now a spokesman says that Ivey "is moving full speed ahead. He's laying the foundation for a congressional run and he looks forward to serving the people of the newly formed 4th District." Game, it would seem, on.

NC-02: Ever since former Dem Rep. Bob Etheridge's name popped up over the summer for a possible comeback bid against GOP frosh Renee Ellmers, I've been pretty skeptical of the idea. But, behold: He is down in DC for that DCCC candidate training session this week. (See our DCCC bullet below in the "Grab Bag.")

OH-09: Sam the Wurzelbacher (aka Joe the Plumber) just kicked off his campaign/freakshow for Ohio's 9th Congressional District. Should be entertaining, at least.

PA-08: Bucks County Commissioner Diane Marseglia, whose name first emerged as a possible Democratic challenger to GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick just the other day, is saying she's a flat "no."

OR-01: Kari Chisholm busts our new BFF Rob Cornilles on something else:

Two weeks ago, at the Jewish Federation Candidate Forum, OR-1 Republican candidate Rob Cornilles claimed that he's not a millionaire. His exact quote, directed at his fellow Republican, Jim Greenfield was:

"By the way, [the] biggest laugh in the hall so far tonight was from my wife when you called me a millionaire."

Of course, Cornilles is full of it. He's trying to obfuscate and confuse the real truth.

You see, in his most recent financial disclosure, he disclosed assets of between $8.7 million and $39.0 million—and 2010 income of between $477,942 and $4.18 million.

Cornilles' wife was laughing because she knows her husband is a multi-millionaire! Kari goes on to nail Cornilles for supporting a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts on the wealthy, because of course that's what a 1%-er like Cornilles would be in favor of.

Other Races:

KY-Auditor: Meanwhile, in another statewide race in Kentucky, Democratic candidate Adam Edelen slams Republican John Kemper for having twice declared bankruptcy:

VA-St. Sen.: Pretty good ad (via Johnny) from Democrat Chuck Colgan, the 85-year-old President Pro Tem of the Virginia Senate. Check out that one-two punch! I hope I'm that spry when I'm his age:
Grab Bag:

DCCC: The D-Trip is holding a training session for over 100 Democratic candidates in Washington, DC this week, but they aren't sharing the attendance list. However, many candidates have made their involvement public, via press releases or media mentions. We've already compiled a number of names, but Ccick the link to help us crowdsource who else is showing up at the DCCC's events.

State Leges: Ballotpedia has an interesting look at the general level of "competitiveness" for the four states with legislative elections this year: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. Fully half of the 473 incumbents seeking re-election face no opposition either in the primary or the general, as compared with just 26% in 2010.

Redistricting Roundup:

KY Redistricting: This is interesting. According to Roll Call's Joshua Miller, Kentucky Republicans are apparently working on an incumbent-protection map, which would have the effect of making Dem Rep. Ben Chandler's district safer. Chandler had one of the narrowest victories in the nation last year, so this of course would be good news for him. I think it would also be good news for Democrats in general, since it would lock in a 4R-2D map for us, which is about the best we can reasonably hope for. Why would the GOP do this? Well, some of their incumbents probably fear competitive races, perhaps a little more than is reasonable. This would take that worry off their plate, and maybe that concern isn't so misplaced, since their gubernatorial candidate has been polling in the twenties this year, after all.

TX Redistricting: Michael Li has a good dissection of a brief filed Tuesday in the DC preclearance case by the Department of Justice. The DoJ argues that the state of Texas is using too simplistic a method for judging minorities' "ability to elect" candidates of their own choosing, and that the state House and congressional maps were enacted with "discriminatory purpose," which constitutes a violation of the Voting Rights Act. You can read all the parties' briefs at the link, and in a separate post, Li summarizes the post-trial briefing in the San Antonio lawsuit.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Thu Oct 27, 2011 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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