Hey folks, I really feel for those of you in Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, or other states with crap governors. Lucky me, I get Andrew Cuomo. One of the many reforms that he has backed is independent redistricting, and I can’t foresee him signing any state Senate maps (or having such veto overridden) unless it’s part of a larger bargain. The State Senate is one of his greatest nemeses; even some Democratic senators are an embarrassment. In that regard, here’s what an independent redistricting of the New York Senate. I know he's made some conciliatory comments, but it would be hard for him to resist vetoing a GOP gerrymander.
I drew these without even looking at where the state senators lived. Which kind of sucks for them because New York law requires them to live in the same county as their district at least 12 months prior to the election in a redistricting year (they would have to live in the district within 12 months of the next election). Oh, and spoiler alert: an independent map looks good for Team Blue
All districts are within 50 people of the ideal (312,550). For continuity purposes I tried to number them as close to their old iterations as possible (easier for political scientists to track) but that makes for some weird numbering. For all New York City districts (and adjacent suburbs) I gave VAP percentages. But there are no VRA issues upstate.
Safe VRA districts (17 total)
District 9 (Cyan - Minority Nassau County)
Population 312,561
Obama 74.4-25.1
34.6% AA, 30.0% White, 27.6% Latino
Open
Republicans are already off to a bad start here as the court draws a minority opportunity district in Western Nassau County. In case you watched Private Parts, this is where Howard Stern grew up and was the only white kid in high school. This leaves 8 districts on Long Island with a chance of electing a Republican, and 9 Republican state senators.
District 10 (Deep Pink - Mid-Queens)
Population 312,587
Obama 92.3-7.5
52.2% AA, 17.3% Latino, 16.0% Asian
Malcolm Smith (D) and Shirley Huntley (D)
Smith and Huntley get thrown into the same district under this map, as under the old map they were pretty horribly gerrymandered into separate districts. Both are embarrassments on the caucus - Smith for his personal life and Huntley for a corruption investigation - so it’d be great if they somehow collapsed in on themselves like a dying star. More likely, Huntley would retire in lieu of the corruption investigation, or Smith might move south to his old district. Maybe he has a girlfriend there or something.
District 13 (Dark Salmon - LaGuardia and environs)
Population 312,516
Obama 79.9-19.5
59.9% Latino, 19.6% Asian, 13.7% White
Jose Peralta (D)
Peralta is the community organizer (or if you’re a Republican, SOCIALIST!!!!1!!1!!one) who knocked off The Embarrassing Hiram Monserrate (best known for slashing his girlfriend (now wife!) with a broken glass). He gets a solidly Latino district for his efforts.
District 14 (Olive - Southern Queens)
Population 312,584
Obama 84.4-15.3
52.1% AA, 17.6% White, 15.7% Latino
Open
Malcolm Smith could move and run here. If he doesn’t, New York City Councilman James Sanders, Jr., who is termed out, or Assemblywoman Michele Titus could replace him.
District 16 (Lime - Asian Queens)
Population 312,594
Obama 69.5-29.8
57.8% Asian, 18.2% Latino 17.6% White
Toby Ann Stavisky (D)
Queens deserves an Asian majority state senate district, and this one traverses the Long Island Expressway to absorb Asian-majority areas. I’m assuming that she lives here because both her and Tony Avella live in Whitestone and that boundary does not change much. Democrats may be wise to dump Stavisky for an Asian because Peter Koo (a Republican member of the City Council) could make a general election interesting here.
District 17 (Dark Slate Blue - Brooklyn-Queens Border)
Population 312,572
Obama 85.5-13.8
57.4% Latino, 22.5% White
Martin Malave Dilan (D)
I couldn’t find Dilan’s address online but I think he lives somewhere in Bushwick. Regardless, this district changes a little to reflect the Williamsburg becoming hipster heaven, moving into Queens to soak up Latino populations there.
District 18 (Yellow - Northern Brooklyn)
Population 312,540
Obama 93.1-6.6
59.7% AA, 21.0% Latino, 14.3% White
Velmanette Montgomery (D)
I equalized the AA VAPs of the four Brooklyn AA majority districts, though the 18th and the 20th are getting whiter faster than the 19th and 21st. I’m pretty sure Montgomery lives in Fort Greene but I could not find her address, so she may live in the 20th and have to eventually move to her old district.
District 19 (Yellow-Green - Eastern Brooklyn)
Population 312,545
Obama 87.5-12.3
59.7% AA, 18.1% Latino, 16.2% White
John Sampson (D) and Carl Kruger (D)
Sampson lives at the eastern edge of Brooklyn according to campaign finance filings. He gets a district that takes in these subway-remote areas, as well as Carl Kruger’s listed residence (his sister’s place) and actual residence (his boyfriend’s tacky mansion).
District 20 (Pink - Grand Army Plaza)
Population 312,523
Obama 94.8-4.8
59.6% AA, 21.3% White, 12.4% Latino
Eric Adams (D)
Adams lives in Prospect Heights, and this district takes in all of Prospect Heights. Adams seems to be a rising progressive star, so it’s nice that he gets a district that he can hold onto.
District 21 (Maroon - Central Brooklyn)
Population 312,514
Obama 82.1-17.5
59.7% AA, 24.0% White
Kevin Parker (D)
It would have been nice to draw Parker out of his district because of his anger issues. But I know he lives in the middle of the redrawn 21st because the New York Post mentioned his address in a story about him attacking a cameraman outside his house. Oops.
District 28 (Plum - Latino Manhattan)
Population 312,592
Obama 91.5-7.5
64.4% Latino, 16.0% White, 14.3% AA
Adriano Espaillat (D) and Jose Serrano Jr. (D)
This district takes in the Latino areas of Upper Manhattan; East Harlem and Washington Heights and connects them with a slice of the South Bronx. It takes in Espaillat’s home in Washington Heights, but he could easily move back to the 31st, which stays mostly the same.
District 30 (Light Coral - Harlem)
Population 312,513
Obama 95.7-3.8
40.2% AA, 31.1% Latino, 20.8% White
Bill Perkins (D)
Amazing that you can only draw a 40% AA district IN HARLEM. But the mixture of gentrification and Dominicans moving into the area makes it so.
District 32 (Orange Red - Bronx Coastline)
Population 312,505
Obama 86.6-13.0
59.5% Latino, 25.1% AA, 12.1% White
Open
Ruben Diaz Sr. is probably drawn into the new 34th (more on that below) so maybe this district could elect a real progressive if he doesn’t feel like moving. It’d be a lot more compact if I didn’t make the 34th Latino VAP majority.
District 33 (Royal Blue - South Bronx)
Population 312,506
Obama 91.3-8.3
64.5% Latino, 21.5% AA
Gustavo Rivera (D)
Hey, it’s Pedro Espada’s old district! Thank God we’re done with that guy.
District 34 (Lime Green - Eastern Bronx)
Population 312,519
Obama 84.8-14.8
51.3% Latino, 23.0% AA, 16.4% White
Jeffrey Klein (D) and Ruben Diaz (D)
As the last whites in Bronx die off or leave, it makes little sense to have a non-minority majority district there. While only 51.8% Latino VAP now this district will surely be even more Latino by the end of the decade. This district takes in most of Soundview so I’m assuming Diaz lives here but he may still be next door in the 32nd. Ideally, he takes on Klein and Klein beats gay marriage’s most vociferous opponent. Or, Diaz could move to the 32nd.
District 35 (Dark Orchid - Westchester-NYC)
Population 312,550 (perfect population, all right)
Obama 79.0-20.4
34.0% Latino, 29.3% AA, 29.2% White
Andrea Stewart-Cousins (D)
Stewart-Cousins has faced some close shaves in the past. Now she gets a majority-minority district that takes in the more diverse parts of Westchester and a portion of the Bronx.
District 36 (Orange - Black Bronx)
Population 312,539
Obama 95.2-4.6
57.8% AA, 33.7% Latino
Ruth Hassell-Thompson (D)
This district does not change much, snaking through Bronx to pick up AA voters.
Safe Non-VRA Seats
18.
District 25 (Pale Violet Red - Brooklyn-Manhattan)
Population 312,518
Obama 86.0-12.8
44.4% White, 26.4% Latino, 20.5% Asian
Dan Squadron (D)
The twee-est district in the state takes in the whiter areas of Brooklyn and a portion of Lower Manhattan. Squadron has the seat for as long as he wants it; Asian and Latino communities could attempt to elect one of their own, but this seat is getting whiter by the day.
19.
District 29 (Dark Sea Green - Downtown)
Population 312,558
Obama 86.1-12.8
69.7% White, 14.3% Asian, 10.1% Latino
Open
I can’t tell where in Chelsea Thomas Duane lives, but if it’s above 23rd street then he doesn’t live in his old district. Downtown New York is a good community of interest, but as you go uptown the differences between the East and West sides become pronounced enough to give each side their own district. Believe me, I live here.
20.
District 31 (Khaki - West Side)
Population 312,520
Obama 83.2-15.8
69.3% White, 12.0% Latino, 11.0% Asian
Thomas Duane
Espaillat would probably move here. He just won the seat and wouldn’t want to face off against Jose Serrano Jr., unless the latter’s father retires from Congress and his son decides to succeed him. Or, Espaillat could run against Charlie Rangel, leading to a West Side free-for-all. Duane would probably run in the 26th, and since he’s lived in Manhattan his whole life he knows that he doesn’t need a broker for the apartment search.
21.
District 12 (Cornflower Blue - Astoria)
Population 312,547
Obama 79.3-19.5
55.9% White, 23.4% Latino, 13.9% Asian
Michael Gianaris (D)
This district takes in the most rlvnt parts of Williamsburg and Greenpoint but the bulk of the voters are in Queens. Even though ethnic whites are moving away from Democrats in other parts of the city, Astoria’s Greeks remain strongly Democratic.
22.
District 58 (Purple - Buffalo)
Population 312,557
Obama 75.9-22.7
Mark Grisanti (R) and Timothy Kennedy (D)
The most Democratic district outside of New York City takes in all of Buffalo and some inner-ring suburbs. Grisanti and Kennedy both live in Buffalo. Grisanti wouldn’t have a shot here. Since he’s made noise about switching back to Team Blue, he might do just that and run next door in the more marginal 60th (more on that below).
23.
District 26 (Gray - Upper East Side)
Population 312,539
Obama 75.7-23.5
77.5% White, 10.6% Asian
Liz Krueger (D)
This district guarantees that there will be a state senator pushing for the Second Avenue Subway to finally be completed. Seriously, we need it bad.
24.
District 56 (Medium Blue - Rochester)
Population 312,572
Obama 68.5-30.2
Joseph Robach (R)
Rochester has been so gerrymandered that it hasn’t elected a Democratic state senator in the past decade. Well, that should change. Robach would probably move to the Republican-leaning 59th instead of run here, making it an easy pickup for Dems. Newly minted Assemblyman Harry Bronson could try to make this his seat in the upper chamber.
25.
District 50 (Powder Blue - Syracuse)
Population 312,585
Obama 63.8-34.3
John DeFrancisco (R)
Under this map Syracuse is united in one district while its suburbs are in another. And it just so happens that the Republican state senator for the area lives in the city district while the Democratic one lives in the suburban one. Since David Valesky lives in Madison County, expect him to face off against DeFrancisco in the suburban district, while former congressman Dan Maffei, Syracuse mayor Stephanie Miner or former Syracuse mayor Matt Driscoll could run here.
26.
District 46 (Tomato - Albany County)
Population 312,549
Obama 63.8-34.4
Neil Breslin (D)
Albany County is almost the exact size necessary for a state senate district. Unfortunately, it also acts as a Democratic vote sink. Breslin gets a very safe seat for as long as he wants.
27.
District 40 (Firebrick - Northern Westchester)
Population 512,587
Obama 63.2-35.9
Open
This Dems don’t have much of a bench here in the Assembly, so it’d be interesting to see who emerged in this district. Suzi Oppenheimer could opt to run here as well since it’s safer than her current district, both of which are contained entirely within Westchester.
28.
District 15 (Dark Orange - Central Queens)
Population 312,570
Obama 61.7-37.4
54.7% White, 20.5% Latino, 17.8% Asian
Joseph Addabbo, Jr. (D)
This is more Democratic than the seat Anthony Weiner vacated so I feel fine calling it a safe seat. It has fewer Orthodox Jews that vote based on what Benjamin Netanyahu tells them than the Ninth Congressional District.
Lean Dem Seats
29.
District 23 (Aquamarine - Verrazano Narrows)
Population 312,532
Obama 59.0-40.1
59.1% White, 17.6% Latino, 11.7% AA
Diane Savino (D) and Martin Golden (R)
Golden’s Bay Ridge home gets taken out of the 22nd and thrown into the 23rd. He’s old enough that he might opt to retire instead of either move or run against liberal hero Savino in the Democratic 23rd. But Carl Kruger’s old 27th would be very alluring to him.
30.
District 22 (Sienna - Asian Brooklyn)
Population 312,501
Obama 58.2-40.8
41.4% Asian, 39.0% White, 16.6% Latino
Open
Brooklyn’s Asian population has exploded so I decided to give them an opportunity district. I couldn’t find any local Asian officeholders, so it’ll be interesting to see who emerges as each party’s standard bearer. Prominent Democrats like Vincent Gentile and Domenic Recchia probably do not live in this district but could take a crack at it.
31.
District 37 (Dodger Blue - Southern Westchester)
Population 312,528
Obama 58.2-41.0
Suzi Oppenheimer (D)
Oppenheimer also narrowly avoided a loss in the last election, and her district loses a lot of heavily Democratic areas, but President Obama still won it by 17 points. If she can’t win here then Dems deserve a better candidate.
32.
District 11 (Chartreuse - Queens-Long Island)
Population 312,557
Obama 57.8-41.3
54.7% White, 26.5% Asian, 13.0% Latino
Tony Avella (D)
Avella faced a tough challenge in his last election and his district stays mostly the same, but it’s hard to see him losing absent another nationwide Democratic meltdown.
Swing Seats
33.
District 51 (Saddle Brown - Western Hudson Valley)
Population 312,541
Obama 56.1-42.2
Open
The 51st started migrating east in the last redraw and it continues that progress. Thomas Libous and James Seward both are in the more Republican 52nd in this map and would probably duke it out there. Democratic Assemblymen Aileen Gunther and Kevin Cahill live here and could move to the upper chamber. If they do, they’d be the tipping point for a Democratic majority
34.
District 45 (Turquoise - Vermont Border)
Population 312,564
Obama 55.4-43.0
Betty Little (R)
Betty Little gets some unfriendly territory to defend, but it’s not so Democratic that she would just automatically call it quits. As for Democrats, former congressman ScottMurphy could run here. Let’s hope the area keeps voting like neighboring Vermont.
35.
District 5 (Gold - Northwest Suffolk)
Population 312,556
Obama 55.5-43.7
John Flanagan (R)
The Long Island musical chairs leaves Flanagan in the most Democratic non-VRA district. Democrats don’t have much of a bench in the State Assembly here, but Jon Cooper of the Suffolk County legislature has had his eye on higher office before, and as an openly gay man he could tap into some good fundraising networks.
36.
District 53 (Gainsboro - Ithaca Southern Tier)
Population 312,562
Obama 55.1-43.2
Tom O’Mara (R)
Ithaca and its increasingly blue suburbs make this a competitive seat. O’Mara could face a tough race from Assemblywoman Barbara Lifton if she ventures to leave her perch.
37.
District 41 (Light Steel Blue - Hudson Valley)
Population 312,562
Obama 55.2-43.4
Stephen Saland (R)
Saland was one of the Republican good guys who voted yes on legalizing gay marriage. That could protect his left flank in this swingy district that contains all of Dutchess County and a sliver of Columbia County. If John Hall wants to return to public life, he could run against Saland here.
38.
District 60 (Goldenrod - Buffalo Inner Ring)
Population 312,537
Obama 54.7-43.7
Michael Ranzenhofer (R)
Erie County is big enough to fit almost exactly three state senate districts, so I gave it almost exactly three state senate districts (this one reaches up to grab a tiny bit of Niagara County to keep populations equal). It also means that Ranzenhofer can’t run in a district reaching into the Finger Lakes any more. Rather, he’s stuck in the swingy 60th, facing a challenge from a party-switching Mark Grisanti (who burnished his Team Blue bona fides for voting in favor of gay marriage) or another Erie County Democrat.
39.
District 55 (Dark Olive Brown - Rochester Inner Ring)
Population 312,557
Obama 54.9-43.8
James Alesi (R)
Democrats can’t take this seat for granted because Alesi has won a much more heavily Democratic seat in the past. This map moves Rochester out of his district to the 56th, but he still represents bluish Monroe County suburbs. This would be the first seat on this list where I’d bet on the Republican, but I’d take 38 seats in the New York senate any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
40.
District 7 (Dark Gray - North Shore)
Population 312,546
Obama 54.4-44.8
Carl Marcellino (R)
I divided Nassau County by LIRR line instead of by proximity to New York like I did with Suffolk County. As a result, Marcellino, who turns 70 next year, gets a lot of new territory and he’d likely face Craig Johnson, who lost the 7th in a nailbiter to Jack Martins last year.
41.
District 43 (Magenta - Capital District East Suburbs)
Population 312,585
Obama 53.0-45.3
Roy McDonald (R)
McDonald could face a primary challenge since he voted for gay marriage. Also, this is Joseph Bruno’s old district, so I’d like to quote The Ramones when I tell him “Up yours, you old bastard.”
42.
District 1 (Blue - The Hamptons)
Population 312,581
Obama 53.0-46.0
Lee Zeldin (R)
The furthest east senator is now in the furthest east district. Another Long Island swing seat, Democrats could always recruit Alec Baldwin to run here, but I don’t think he’d like to commute from the Hamptons to Albany.
43.
District 3 (Dark Magenta)
Population 312,562
Obama 52.9-46.2
Open
The Long Island Musical Chairs leave a second open seat, and none of the incumbent senators live here. John Flanagan could opt to move here but I’m not sure whether the 3% drop in Democratic performance is worth uprooting your family. Regardless, Democrat Brian Foley, who represented this district until 2010, could attempt to retake the seat for Team Blue.
44.
District 38 (Medium Aquamarine - Rockland County)
Population 312,548
Obama 52.7-46.6
David Carlucci (D)
The Obama number may be a bit misleading because Orthodox Jews have the equivalent of cult compounds in Rockland County, and their rebbes (who tell them how to vote) hated Obama. Also of note, Rockland County is almost exactly the size a state senate district needs to be, so all this district needs is a sliver of Westchester for population equalization purposes.
45.
District 52 (Drab Olive - Binghamton & Environs)
Population 312,568
Obama 52.4-45.8
Thomas Libous (R) and James Seward (R)
This duo has a combined 46 years of experience in the Senate, and look how much good they’ve done. Haha j/k lol. Whoever ends up the nominee here could still face a tough race from Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo if she runs.
46.
District 39 (Moccasin - Putnam County)
Population 312,545
Obama 51.6-47.4
Greg Ball (R)
Republican Putnam County balances out the Democratic areas of Orange, Dutchess and Westchester Counties to create a swingy seat. I hope some local Democrat will do his best to troll Roger Ailes by becoming his state senator.
47.
District 49 (Indian Red - Syracuse Suburbs)
Population 312,571
Obama 50.5-47.5
Open
Valesky would probably run here (even though as a goo-goo type he might run where he lives) but this seat would also be pretty inviting for John DeFrancisco.
Republican-Leaning Seats
48.
District 44 (Medium Violet Red - Western Capital District)
Population 312,572
Obama 49.8-48.2
Hugh Farley (R)
The district may slightly lean Republican, but Farley’s been in the senate forever and may have a glass jaw a la George Gekas.
49.
District 42 (Lawn Green - Orange County)
Population 312,515
Obama 49.9-49.0
John Bonacic (R) and Bill Larkin (R)
When you take the Democratic areas out of Orange County you get some fairly Republican turf, even if President Obama eked out a win here. Larkin lives just over the border from the 39th so he could run there if Greg Ball makes good on his Nan Hayworth primary threat.
50.
District 4 (Red - Nassau-Suffolk)
Population 312,580
McCain 49.8-49.3
Owen Johnson (R)
Johnson’s the only Long Island state senator who gets his old seat to himself. See below for details.
50.
District 48 (Sandy Brown - North Country)
Population 312,560
McCain 49.4-49.1
Patty Ritchie (R)
The biggest district in the state contains Democratic St. Lawrence County, which is negated by the Republican rural areas surrounding it. Ritchie lives in Ogdensburg, which I believe is one of the cities scammed by Lyle Lanley’s monorail operation.
52.
District 2 (Green - North Shore Suffolk)
Population 312,587
McCain 50.2-48.9
Kenneth LaValle (R)
The musical chairs continue. In case you haven’t been keeping track, Jack Martins gets thrown into Kemp Hannon’s district, Carl Marcellino gets Martins’s old district, John Flanagan gets Marcellino’s old district, LaValle gets Flanagan’s old district, Lee Zeldin gets LaValle’s old district and there’s an open seat on the Suffolk South Shore.
53.
District 59 (Dark Red - Finger Lakes)
Population 312,527
McCain 50.6-47,8
Michael Nozzolio (R)
Mostly I’m just proud I could cram most of the Finger Lakes into one district. Community of Interest FTW.
54.
District 8 (Slate Blue - South Shore Nassau)
Population 312,583
McCain 51.1-48.1
Dean Skelos (R) and Charles Fuschillo (R)
Since Skelos is the Gran Moff Tarkin of the New York Senate, I’m guessing Fuschillo would bow out instead of taking him on.
55.
District 47 (Thistle - Utica)
Population 312,570
McCain 51.8-46.4
Joseph Griffo (R) and David Valesky (D)
Griffo trades Republican rural areas for Republican Utica suburbs. Even Superintendent Chalmers (who’s from Utica) would face an uphill battle replacing the Republican incumbent so I’m betting David Valesky would run next door in the 49th.
Safe Republican Seats
56.
District 61 (Dark Cyan - Erie County Outer Ring)
Population 312,573
McCain 52.0-46.4
Patrick Gallivan (R)
Call it the Paladino belt. This is the Erie County Republican Party’s base and it should elect Gallivan for the next decade unless Doug Flutie or Jim Kelly runs against him.
57.
District 6 (Teal - Mid-Nassau)
Population 312,559
McCain 52.6-46.6
Jack Martins (R) and Kemp Hannon (R)
Martins and Hannon live in adjoining towns so it’s hard to imagine a scenario where an independent arbiter does not draw them together. If Hannon pulls rank and Marcellino runs for reelection, Martins could run in the 11th and try to knock of Tony Avella. More likely, facing time in the minority, old-timer Hannon calls it a career.
58.
District 57 (Green Yellow - Southern Tier)
Population 312,561
McCain 52.6-45.6
Catharine Young (R)
It’s no coincidence that one of the most Republican areas of the state is also one of the slowest-growing.
59.
District 62 (Slate Grey - Buffalo Exurbs)
Population 312,542
McCain 53.1-45.2
George Maziarz (R)
These rural areas probably don’t contain too many Buffalo commuters, but they’re more Buffalo-centric than Rochester-centric so they belong together in that regard. This district would be even more heavily Republican if it didn’t include blue bastion Niagara Falls.
60.
District 54 (Peach - Rochester Exurbs)
Population 312,525
McCain 53.3-46.2
Open
Robach can move here eventually, as the slice of Monroe County in this district saves his bacon. The musical chairs means Gallivan’s seat is essentially turned into a safe blue seat based in Rochester.
61.
District 24 (Indigo - State Island)
Population 312,518
McCain 57.8-41.5
74.8% White, 12.0% Latino
Andrew Lanza (R)
Amazingly, the two most Republican districts are in New York City. Staten Island’s south shore is not only a breeding ground for Jersey Shore gorilla juiceheads, but Republicans as well. The president’s tanning bed tax cost us Staten Island for a generation.
62.
District 27 (Spring Green - Southern Brooklyn)
Population 312,554
McCain 63.6-35.8
75.5% White, 11.2% Asian
Open
Welp, the Senate Gay Caucus is going to shrink by one member, as Carl Kruger can’t possibly win here. Taking out all the Asian areas and stretching this district up to Borough Park makes it Obama’s worst district. Even a candidate that could get the Orthodox Jews there on his side would have an uphill climb. If Golden wants to stay in the Senate, he does it here. Kruger’s got too many problems to list, and this district ensures that he’s a goner.
Thu Nov 03, 2011 at 7:02 AM PT: Sapelcovits pointed out that Ruth Hassell-Thompson lives in the same district as Andrea Stewart-Cousins in Westchester (the 35th). Since the open 40th is safely Democratic and in Westchester Hassell-Thompson could run there.